Putin maintains tight control through expanded FSB authority, balanced security structures, and recent government adjustments that limit independent power centers among elites. Ongoing economic and military pressures from the Ukraine conflict, including refinery strikes, have fueled speculation about internal discontent, yet analysts note the absence of coordinated military or security faction moves since the 2023 Prigozhin episode. Trader consensus assigns low probability to a coup attempt through 2026, reflecting historical precedent of regime resilience and structural barriers like surveillance of potential rivals. Any shift would likely require major battlefield reversals or elite fractures not yet evident in verifiable reporting.