Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.8% reflecting entrenched Russian control over Crimea since its 2014 annexation, bolstered by extensive fortifications, air defenses, and Black Sea Fleet remnants despite Ukrainian long-range strikes. In the past 30 days through mid-May 2026, Ukraine conducted precision drone and missile attacks on Russian assets in occupied Crimea—including oil depots and radar stations in late April and early May—but made no verifiable ground advances toward recapture amid Russian territorial gains elsewhere, such as 1,700 square kilometers captured this year. With just six weeks until resolution on June 30, logistical barriers, manpower shortages, and ongoing frontline stalemates elsewhere render a breakthrough implausible. Only an unforeseen Russian military collapse, massive Western escalation in arms, or diplomatic rupture could shift odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?
$74,026 Обс.
$74,026 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
$74,026 Обс.
$74,026 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.8% reflecting entrenched Russian control over Crimea since its 2014 annexation, bolstered by extensive fortifications, air defenses, and Black Sea Fleet remnants despite Ukrainian long-range strikes. In the past 30 days through mid-May 2026, Ukraine conducted precision drone and missile attacks on Russian assets in occupied Crimea—including oil depots and radar stations in late April and early May—but made no verifiable ground advances toward recapture amid Russian territorial gains elsewhere, such as 1,700 square kilometers captured this year. With just six weeks until resolution on June 30, logistical barriers, manpower shortages, and ongoing frontline stalemates elsewhere render a breakthrough implausible. Only an unforeseen Russian military collapse, massive Western escalation in arms, or diplomatic rupture could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Обсяг
$74,026Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.8% reflecting entrenched Russian control over Crimea since its 2014 annexation, bolstered by extensive fortifications, air defenses, and Black Sea Fleet remnants despite Ukrainian long-range strikes. In the past 30 days through mid-May 2026, Ukraine conducted precision drone and missile attacks on Russian assets in occupied Crimea—including oil depots and radar stations in late April and early May—but made no verifiable ground advances toward recapture amid Russian territorial gains elsewhere, such as 1,700 square kilometers captured this year. With just six weeks until resolution on June 30, logistical barriers, manpower shortages, and ongoing frontline stalemates elsewhere render a breakthrough implausible. Only an unforeseen Russian military collapse, massive Western escalation in arms, or diplomatic rupture could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Обсяг
$74,026Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 98.8% reflecting entrenched Russian control over Crimea since its 2014 annexation, bolstered by extensive fortifications, air defenses, and Black Sea Fleet remnants despite Ukrainian long-range strikes. In the past 30 days through mid-May 2026, Ukraine conducted precision drone and missile attacks on Russian assets in occupied Crimea—including oil depots and radar stations in late April and early May—but made no verifiable ground advances toward recapture amid Russian territorial gains elsewhere, such as 1,700 square kilometers captured this year. With just six weeks until resolution on June 30, logistical barriers, manpower shortages, and ongoing frontline stalemates elsewhere render a breakthrough implausible. Only an unforeseen Russian military collapse, massive Western escalation in arms, or diplomatic rupture could shift odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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