Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s political system following the September 2026 parliamentary elections, in which United Russia secured a constitutional supermajority and high turnout was framed by the Kremlin as endorsement of the military campaign in Ukraine. His current presidential term extends to 2030 under constitutional amendments, with no scheduled elections or succession process underway. Recent diplomatic activity, including statements on Ukraine peace proposals and engagement with international forums, reinforces his active leadership role. Trader consensus prices near-term removal probabilities low because structural barriers—including security apparatus loyalty, absence of viable rivals, and wartime consolidation—have historically sustained incumbents through comparable periods. Any shift would require unforeseen internal elite realignment or major external shocks within the resolution window.