Russia's military remains heavily committed to its ongoing campaign in Ukraine through mid-2026, with forces engaged in attritional advances across Donetsk and other fronts amid high casualties exceeding one million combined and depleted equipment stocks. Sanctions, recruitment challenges, and the absence of large-scale mobilization announcements limit capacity for opening a new conventional front against another state. NATO deterrence along eastern borders, combined with Russian hybrid tactics rather than overt operations, further reduces incentives for escalation elsewhere. Trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for "No" aligns with assessments that resource constraints and the unresolved Ukraine conflict make a fresh invasion in the remainder of the year unlikely absent major shifts in battlefield dynamics or Western support.