Russia's ongoing military campaign in Ukraine continues to absorb substantial resources, with recent developments including President Putin's decree expanding the active army to 1.55 million personnel, intensified long-range strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, and reports of additional North Korean troop deployments. NATO assessments, including from Danish intelligence, indicate no imminent prospect of major Russian breakthroughs in Ukraine or an outright invasion of alliance territory, though hybrid activities such as sabotage in Estonia have drawn allied responses. These factors, combined with Russia's stretched forces and focus on sustaining operations through 2026, underpin trader consensus that a new invasion of another country remains unlikely in the resolution window.