Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year, continues to anchor trader expectations that no new invasion will occur in 2026. Severe strains on manpower and equipment, including record personnel losses and projected shortages of tanks and artillery, keep Russian forces focused on existing operations in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. President Putin's May 9 statement describing the Ukraine conflict as "coming to an end" aligns with mobilization plans limited to current fronts, while the absence of verified troop movements or official threats toward Moldova, the Baltics, or other neighbors reinforces the consensus. NATO's deterrence posture and the lack of recent diplomatic signals pointing to expansion further support the 88.5% implied probability for no new invasion by year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Russia invade another country in 2026?
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
$164,833 Обс.
$164,833 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$164,833 Обс.
$164,833 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year, continues to anchor trader expectations that no new invasion will occur in 2026. Severe strains on manpower and equipment, including record personnel losses and projected shortages of tanks and artillery, keep Russian forces focused on existing operations in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. President Putin's May 9 statement describing the Ukraine conflict as "coming to an end" aligns with mobilization plans limited to current fronts, while the absence of verified troop movements or official threats toward Moldova, the Baltics, or other neighbors reinforces the consensus. NATO's deterrence posture and the lack of recent diplomatic signals pointing to expansion further support the 88.5% implied probability for no new invasion by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
Обсяг
$164,833Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year, continues to anchor trader expectations that no new invasion will occur in 2026. Severe strains on manpower and equipment, including record personnel losses and projected shortages of tanks and artillery, keep Russian forces focused on existing operations in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. President Putin's May 9 statement describing the Ukraine conflict as "coming to an end" aligns with mobilization plans limited to current fronts, while the absence of verified troop movements or official threats toward Moldova, the Baltics, or other neighbors reinforces the consensus. NATO's deterrence posture and the lack of recent diplomatic signals pointing to expansion further support the 88.5% implied probability for no new invasion by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$164,833Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year, continues to anchor trader expectations that no new invasion will occur in 2026. Severe strains on manpower and equipment, including record personnel losses and projected shortages of tanks and artillery, keep Russian forces focused on existing operations in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. President Putin's May 9 statement describing the Ukraine conflict as "coming to an end" aligns with mobilization plans limited to current fronts, while the absence of verified troop movements or official threats toward Moldova, the Baltics, or other neighbors reinforces the consensus. NATO's deterrence posture and the lack of recent diplomatic signals pointing to expansion further support the 88.5% implied probability for no new invasion by year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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