Ongoing military stalemate, unresolved territorial disputes, and stalled U.S.-mediated talks have kept any viable peace agreement out of reach through mid-2026. Ukrainian officials have floated referendum ideas tied to elections or deal approval, yet constitutional and legal barriers under martial law, NGO opposition, and absence of mutually acceptable terms have blocked progress. Recent proposals and envoy visits have produced no breakthroughs amid continued fighting and maximalist positions from both sides. Traders assign the outcome a low implied probability because historical negotiation patterns, polling on Ukrainian preferences, and institutional requirements indicate insufficient time remains before 2027 for a completed referendum. A rapid diplomatic shift or major battlefield change could still open a narrow path.