Persistent military exchanges and the collapse of a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire in mid-May 2026 underscore why traders assign an 81.5% probability against a Ukrainian peace referendum passing before 2027. Ongoing territorial disputes and Russian insistence on maximalist demands have kept formal negotiations stalled despite intermittent prisoner exchanges and trilateral meetings. Ukrainian law bars nationwide votes during active hostilities without a durable ceasefire and security guarantees, a threshold that remains unmet. President Zelenskyy has conditioned any referendum on prior parliamentary approval and international assurances, further slowing timelines. With no breakthrough on core issues and battlefield dynamics unchanged, the market reflects consensus that structural barriers will prevent resolution within the current calendar window.