Ukraine’s refusal to publicly forgo NATO membership before 2027 stems from stalled peace negotiations with Russia since late 2025 and Kyiv’s consistent rejection of Moscow’s demands for a formal moratorium. President Zelenskyy briefly floated trading NATO ambitions for security guarantees in December 2025 but quickly reversed course, and subsequent Geneva talks produced no breakthrough on alliance accession amid continued fighting. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s April 2026 statements underscored the lack of allied consensus for near-term membership, yet Ukraine has accelerated EU accession reforms with an eye toward 2027 integration instead. Traders view any binding pledge as unlikely before year-end given these entrenched positions and ongoing military aid flows.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$99,705 Обс.
$99,705 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$99,705 Обс.
$99,705 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s refusal to publicly forgo NATO membership before 2027 stems from stalled peace negotiations with Russia since late 2025 and Kyiv’s consistent rejection of Moscow’s demands for a formal moratorium. President Zelenskyy briefly floated trading NATO ambitions for security guarantees in December 2025 but quickly reversed course, and subsequent Geneva talks produced no breakthrough on alliance accession amid continued fighting. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s April 2026 statements underscored the lack of allied consensus for near-term membership, yet Ukraine has accelerated EU accession reforms with an eye toward 2027 integration instead. Traders view any binding pledge as unlikely before year-end given these entrenched positions and ongoing military aid flows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$99,705Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s refusal to publicly forgo NATO membership before 2027 stems from stalled peace negotiations with Russia since late 2025 and Kyiv’s consistent rejection of Moscow’s demands for a formal moratorium. President Zelenskyy briefly floated trading NATO ambitions for security guarantees in December 2025 but quickly reversed course, and subsequent Geneva talks produced no breakthrough on alliance accession amid continued fighting. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s April 2026 statements underscored the lack of allied consensus for near-term membership, yet Ukraine has accelerated EU accession reforms with an eye toward 2027 integration instead. Traders view any binding pledge as unlikely before year-end given these entrenched positions and ongoing military aid flows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Обсяг
$99,705Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine’s refusal to publicly forgo NATO membership before 2027 stems from stalled peace negotiations with Russia since late 2025 and Kyiv’s consistent rejection of Moscow’s demands for a formal moratorium. President Zelenskyy briefly floated trading NATO ambitions for security guarantees in December 2025 but quickly reversed course, and subsequent Geneva talks produced no breakthrough on alliance accession amid continued fighting. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s April 2026 statements underscored the lack of allied consensus for near-term membership, yet Ukraine has accelerated EU accession reforms with an eye toward 2027 integration instead. Traders view any binding pledge as unlikely before year-end given these entrenched positions and ongoing military aid flows.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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