Strong institutional commitments under the North Atlantic Treaty, combined with shared external pressures from Russia's ongoing actions in Ukraine and the Baltic region, underpin trader consensus against intra-NATO clashes before 2027. Recent U.S.-Denmark negotiations over Greenland security produced a stabilizing agreement with expanded NATO involvement, easing earlier strains without escalation. Periodic divergences on issues such as Iran policy or defense spending have surfaced but resolved through diplomacy rather than confrontation. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include abrupt U.S. policy reversals on alliance commitments or unresolved territorial disputes among members, though alliance procedures and deterrence priorities have historically contained such risks.