The February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei triggered an expedited succession process under Iran's constitution, with the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba as the new supreme leader by mid-March. Mojtaba's limited public visibility since then, combined with the IRGC's elevated role in security and foreign policy decisions, has shaped trader views on near-term stability. Ongoing negotiations over the war's aftermath, internal factional tensions, and potential IRGC consolidation now drive assessments of further leadership shifts before year-end. Historical patterns of clerical selection and military influence provide context for evaluating risks of additional transitions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$13,591,820 Обс.
May 31, 2026
31 травня
5%
30 червня
14%
31 грудня
35%
$13,591,820 Обс.
31 травня
$1,925,394 Обс.
5%
30 червня
$1,076,266 Обс.
14%
31 грудня
$2,394,280 Обс.
35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei triggered an expedited succession process under Iran's constitution, with the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba as the new supreme leader by mid-March. Mojtaba's limited public visibility since then, combined with the IRGC's elevated role in security and foreign policy decisions, has shaped trader views on near-term stability. Ongoing negotiations over the war's aftermath, internal factional tensions, and potential IRGC consolidation now drive assessments of further leadership shifts before year-end. Historical patterns of clerical selection and military influence provide context for evaluating risks of additional transitions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
Обсяг
$13,591,820Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei triggered an expedited succession process under Iran's constitution, with the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba as the new supreme leader by mid-March. Mojtaba's limited public visibility since then, combined with the IRGC's elevated role in security and foreign policy decisions, has shaped trader views on near-term stability. Ongoing negotiations over the war's aftermath, internal factional tensions, and potential IRGC consolidation now drive assessments of further leadership shifts before year-end. Historical patterns of clerical selection and military influence provide context for evaluating risks of additional transitions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$13,591,820Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei triggered an expedited succession process under Iran's constitution, with the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba as the new supreme leader by mid-March. Mojtaba's limited public visibility since then, combined with the IRGC's elevated role in security and foreign policy decisions, has shaped trader views on near-term stability. Ongoing negotiations over the war's aftermath, internal factional tensions, and potential IRGC consolidation now drive assessments of further leadership shifts before year-end. Historical patterns of clerical selection and military influence provide context for evaluating risks of additional transitions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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