Iran’s leadership transition following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during U.S.-Israeli strikes drove the primary market movement, with the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March. Mojtaba has since consolidated authority through security appointments and maintained continuity in foreign policy amid the protracted conflict, including demands tied to Strait of Hormuz negotiations. Recent U.S. midterm results, viewed by Tehran as weakening pressure for escalation, have reinforced regime stability signals without altering core institutional control. Traders weigh these factors against risks of further internal reshuffles or external shocks within any remaining resolution window, though no major leadership vacancies have emerged since the spring transition.