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icon for Зміна керівництва Ірану на...?
Політика·Мойтаба

Зміна керівництва Ірану на...?

icon for Зміна керівництва Ірану на...?
Політика·Мойтаба

Зміна керівництва Ірану на...?

$23,608,393 Обс.

Aug 22, 2026
Polymarket

$23,608,393 Обс.

Polymarket

August 22

$58,081 Обс.

<1%

August 31

$1,176,921 Обс.

1%

September 30

$464,388 Обс.

5%

October 31

$13,961 Обс.

8%

November 30

$12,278 Обс.

11%

31 грудня

$4,033,476 Обс.

17%

June 30, 2027

$241,096 Обс.

26%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process under Article 111, activating a temporary three-member leadership council that included President Masoud Pezeshkian and other officials. The Assembly of Experts then selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader in early March, completing the transition within weeks amid wartime conditions and regional tensions. This sequence of verified events, following years of speculation over health concerns and potential successors, directly shapes trader assessments of whether further leadership shifts occur before any specified market deadline. Ongoing factors include the durability of the new arrangement under economic pressure, domestic protests, and external diplomatic or military developments that could influence institutional stability.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$23,608,393
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process under Article 111, activating a temporary three-member leadership council that included President Masoud Pezeshkian and other officials. The Assembly of Experts then selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader in early March, completing the transition within weeks amid wartime conditions and regional tensions. This sequence of verified events, following years of speculation over health concerns and potential successors, directly shapes trader assessments of whether further leadership shifts occur before any specified market deadline. Ongoing factors include the durability of the new arrangement under economic pressure, domestic protests, and external diplomatic or military developments that could influence institutional stability.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$23,608,393
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Пов'язане

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Так
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Зміна керівництва Ірану на...?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 14 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «June 30, 2027» з 26%, далі «31 грудня» з 17%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Зміна керівництва Ірану на...?» згенерував $23.6 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Mar 8, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Зміна керівництва Ірану на...?», перегляньте 14 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Зміна керівництва Ірану на...?» — «June 30, 2027» з 26%. Наступний — «31 грудня» з 17%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Зміна керівництва Ірану на...?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.