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Світ·Близький Схід

Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?

icon for Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?
Світ·Близький Схід

Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?

Моджтаба Хаменеї 64.1%

Реза Пехлеві 7%

Мохаммад-Багер Калібаф 5.1%

Аббас Арагчі 2.6%

Polymarket

$8,457,230 Обс.

Моджтаба Хаменеї 64.1%

Реза Пехлеві 7%

Мохаммад-Багер Калібаф 5.1%

Аббас Арагчі 2.6%

Polymarket

$8,457,230 Обс.

Моджтаба Хаменеї

$2,069,111 Обс.

64%

Реза Пехлеві

$206,268 Обс.

7%

Мохаммад-Багер Калібаф

$227,967 Обс.

5%

Аббас Арагчі

$199,559 Обс.

3%

Немає Глави держави

$473,789 Обс.

3%

Хасан Рухані

$338,967 Обс.

1%

Ахмад Вахіді

$285,180 Обс.

1%

Аліреза Арафі

$846,916 Обс.

1%

Хасан Хомейні

$799,228 Обс.

1%

Марʼям Раджаві

$304,786 Обс.

1%

Массуд Раджаві

$61,558 Обс.

1%

Голам-Алі Хаддад-Адел

$77,005 Обс.

1%

Масуд Пезешкіан

$312,358 Обс.

1%

Махмуд Ахмадінеджад

$124,964 Обс.

<1%

Навід Шомалі

$75,515 Обс.

<1%

Мохаммад Хатамі

$434,259 Обс.

<1%

Садег Ларіджані

$195,597 Обс.

<1%

Алі Асґар Хеджазі

$87,111 Обс.

<1%

Мухаммад Мірбакірі

$290,404 Обс.

<1%

Хасан Шаріатмадинарі

$179,708 Обс.

<1%

Реза Пірзаде

$52,010 Обс.

<1%

Мостафа Пурмохаммаді

$100,091 Обс.

<1%

Саїд Джалілі

$83,015 Обс.

<1%

Мохсен Аракі

$64,445 Обс.

<1%

Сейед Хоссейн Мусавіан

$52,716 Обс.

<1%

Мустафа Хіджрі

$33,414 Обс.

<1%

Алі Мотахарі

$87,072 Обс.

<1%

Садеґ Махсулі

$74,398 Обс.

<1%

Насір Хоссейні

$39,291 Обс.

<1%

Ахмад Хоссейні Хорасані

$43,666 Обс.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's selection by Iran's Assembly of Experts as supreme leader in March 2026, following his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in late February strikes, anchors the current trader consensus around his continued tenure through year-end. Backed by Revolutionary Guards support and rapid institutional consolidation, this transition has elevated him above other named clerics and opposition figures despite limited public visibility and ongoing regional tensions. Lower probabilities for alternatives such as Reza Pahlavi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf reflect their weaker domestic institutional ties and lack of recent official elevation. The market reflects trader focus on regime continuity mechanisms, including the Assembly's role and security apparatus influence, amid uncertainty over leadership stability in a wartime context.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Обсяг
$8,457,230
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's selection by Iran's Assembly of Experts as supreme leader in March 2026, following his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in late February strikes, anchors the current trader consensus around his continued tenure through year-end. Backed by Revolutionary Guards support and rapid institutional consolidation, this transition has elevated him above other named clerics and opposition figures despite limited public visibility and ongoing regional tensions. Lower probabilities for alternatives such as Reza Pahlavi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf reflect their weaker domestic institutional ties and lack of recent official elevation. The market reflects trader focus on regime continuity mechanisms, including the Assembly's role and security apparatus influence, amid uncertainty over leadership stability in a wartime context.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Обсяг
$8,457,230
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 32 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Моджтаба Хаменеї» з 64%, далі «Реза Пехлеві» з 7%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» згенерував $8.5 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Mar 1, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?», перегляньте 32 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» — «Моджтаба Хаменеї» з 64%. Наступний — «Реза Пехлеві» з 7%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.