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icon for Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?
Світ·Близький Схід

Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?

icon for Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?
Світ·Близький Схід

Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?

Моджтаба Хаменеї 82.5%

Немає Глави держави 4.4%

Реза Пехлеві 3.4%

Аліреза Арафі 2.4%

Polymarket

$38,660,953 Обс.

Моджтаба Хаменеї 82.5%

Немає Глави держави 4.4%

Реза Пехлеві 3.4%

Аліреза Арафі 2.4%

Polymarket

$38,660,953 Обс.

Моджтаба Хаменеї

$6,048,525 Обс.

83%

Немає Глави держави

$1,149,290 Обс.

4%

Реза Пехлеві

$672,872 Обс.

3%

Аліреза Арафі

$2,312,138 Обс.

2%

Махмуд Ахмадінеджад

$1,120,783 Обс.

2%

Хасан Рухані

$944,785 Обс.

1%

Масуд Пезешкіан

$1,020,268 Обс.

1%

Хасан Хомейні

$1,425,550 Обс.

1%

Ахмад Вахіді

$776,892 Обс.

1%

Мохаммад-Багер Калібаф

$918,142 Обс.

1%

Мухаммад Мірбакірі

$437,732 Обс.

<1%

Аббас Арагчі

$833,568 Обс.

<1%

Садег Ларіджані

$535,558 Обс.

<1%

Хасан Шаріатмадинарі

$3,145,258 Обс.

<1%

Марʼям Раджаві

$806,001 Обс.

<1%

Массуд Раджаві

$397,970 Обс.

<1%

Сейед Хоссейн Мусавіан

$3,694,591 Обс.

<1%

Реза Пірзаде

$146,761 Обс.

<1%

Навід Шомалі

$214,706 Обс.

<1%

Мустафа Хіджрі

$199,243 Обс.

<1%

Алі Мотахарі

$836,283 Обс.

<1%

Голам-Алі Хаддад-Адел

$434,050 Обс.

<1%

Мостафа Пурмохаммаді

$3,347,820 Обс.

<1%

Садеґ Махсулі

$239,287 Обс.

<1%

Саїд Джалілі

$388,272 Обс.

<1%

Мохаммад Хатамі

$5,192,146 Обс.

<1%

Мохсен Аракі

$281,818 Обс.

<1%

Насір Хоссейні

$254,631 Обс.

<1%

Ахмад Хоссейні Хорасані

$306,727 Обс.

<1%

Алі Асґар Хеджазі

$342,427 Обс.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei commands 82.5% trader consensus for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 following his March 2026 election by the Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader. This rapid succession occurred after his father Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes during the Iran war, with the vote delivering continuity amid wartime pressures and IRGC backing. Recent months have shown institutional consolidation, including Mojtaba's reported appointments of hardline military figures and statements confirming increasing engagement despite limited public appearances and injuries sustained in the attack. Alternatives such as Alireza Arafi, Reza Pahlavi, or former presidents trade in low single digits due to the absence of viable challenges or major disruptions to the post-election framework through mid-August. Scheduled institutional processes and any escalation in external conflicts remain the primary variables that could influence year-end positioning.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Обсяг
$38,660,953
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei commands 82.5% trader consensus for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 following his March 2026 election by the Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader. This rapid succession occurred after his father Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes during the Iran war, with the vote delivering continuity amid wartime pressures and IRGC backing. Recent months have shown institutional consolidation, including Mojtaba's reported appointments of hardline military figures and statements confirming increasing engagement despite limited public appearances and injuries sustained in the attack. Alternatives such as Alireza Arafi, Reza Pahlavi, or former presidents trade in low single digits due to the absence of viable challenges or major disruptions to the post-election framework through mid-August. Scheduled institutional processes and any escalation in external conflicts remain the primary variables that could influence year-end positioning.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Обсяг
$38,660,953
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 32 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Моджтаба Хаменеї» з 83%, далі «Немає Глави держави» з 4%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» згенерував $38.7 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Feb 28, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?», перегляньте 32 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» — «Моджтаба Хаменеї» з 83%. Наступний — «Немає Глави держави» з 4%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Лідер Ірану наприкінці 2026 року?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.