Iran’s continued participation in the 2026 NPT Review Conference, including submission of multiple working papers, alongside ongoing bilateral nuclear negotiations with the United States, has anchored trader expectations against withdrawal before 2027. Repeated Iranian parliamentary and foreign ministry statements since mid-2025 have framed potential exit as a response to strikes on nuclear sites and sanctions pressure, yet no bill has advanced to formal passage or implementation. Recent reports of a June 2026 memorandum of understanding and planned 60-day talks on enrichment limits and verification instead signal diplomatic engagement that preserves NPT obligations in the near term. These developments, combined with the short remaining window and historical pattern of threats without follow-through, underpin the 88% implied probability that Iran will remain a state party through the end of 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
$192,097 Обс.
$192,097 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$192,097 Обс.
$192,097 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran’s continued participation in the 2026 NPT Review Conference, including submission of multiple working papers, alongside ongoing bilateral nuclear negotiations with the United States, has anchored trader expectations against withdrawal before 2027. Repeated Iranian parliamentary and foreign ministry statements since mid-2025 have framed potential exit as a response to strikes on nuclear sites and sanctions pressure, yet no bill has advanced to formal passage or implementation. Recent reports of a June 2026 memorandum of understanding and planned 60-day talks on enrichment limits and verification instead signal diplomatic engagement that preserves NPT obligations in the near term. These developments, combined with the short remaining window and historical pattern of threats without follow-through, underpin the 88% implied probability that Iran will remain a state party through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$192,097Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran’s continued participation in the 2026 NPT Review Conference, including submission of multiple working papers, alongside ongoing bilateral nuclear negotiations with the United States, has anchored trader expectations against withdrawal before 2027. Repeated Iranian parliamentary and foreign ministry statements since mid-2025 have framed potential exit as a response to strikes on nuclear sites and sanctions pressure, yet no bill has advanced to formal passage or implementation. Recent reports of a June 2026 memorandum of understanding and planned 60-day talks on enrichment limits and verification instead signal diplomatic engagement that preserves NPT obligations in the near term. These developments, combined with the short remaining window and historical pattern of threats without follow-through, underpin the 88% implied probability that Iran will remain a state party through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$192,097Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s continued participation in the 2026 NPT Review Conference, including submission of multiple working papers, alongside ongoing bilateral nuclear negotiations with the United States, has anchored trader expectations against withdrawal before 2027. Repeated Iranian parliamentary and foreign ministry statements since mid-2025 have framed potential exit as a response to strikes on nuclear sites and sanctions pressure, yet no bill has advanced to formal passage or implementation. Recent reports of a June 2026 memorandum of understanding and planned 60-day talks on enrichment limits and verification instead signal diplomatic engagement that preserves NPT obligations in the near term. These developments, combined with the short remaining window and historical pattern of threats without follow-through, underpin the 88% implied probability that Iran will remain a state party through the end of 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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