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Геополітика·Атомна енергетика

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

icon for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Геополітика·Атомна енергетика

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

11% шанс
Polymarket

$321,040 Обс.

11% шанс
Polymarket

$321,040 Обс.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's repeated threats of NPT withdrawal since 2025, including parliamentary reviews in March 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities and sanctions risks, have not produced formal notice under Article X. Instead, post-conflict diplomacy in early 2026 has emphasized interim deals, verification arrangements, and sanctions relief in exchange for enrichment limits, with Iran remaining bound by its safeguards agreement despite suspended IAEA cooperation. Traders view outright exit as carrying substantial costs, including diplomatic isolation, forfeiture of civil nuclear cooperation, and heightened escalation risks, while negotiations offer leverage without triggering those outcomes. No formal withdrawal has occurred as of mid-2026, and the short window to year-end reinforces the consensus that structural incentives favor continued engagement over treaty departure.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$321,040
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's repeated threats of NPT withdrawal since 2025, including parliamentary reviews in March 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities and sanctions risks, have not produced formal notice under Article X. Instead, post-conflict diplomacy in early 2026 has emphasized interim deals, verification arrangements, and sanctions relief in exchange for enrichment limits, with Iran remaining bound by its safeguards agreement despite suspended IAEA cooperation. Traders view outright exit as carrying substantial costs, including diplomatic isolation, forfeiture of civil nuclear cooperation, and heightened escalation risks, while negotiations offer leverage without triggering those outcomes. No formal withdrawal has occurred as of mid-2026, and the short window to year-end reinforces the consensus that structural incentives favor continued engagement over treaty departure.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$321,040
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 11% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 11¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 11%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?» згенерував $321K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Nov 5, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?» — 11% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 11% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

Правила вирішення для «Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.