Iran maintains its longstanding position that uranium enrichment is a sovereign right tied to its civilian nuclear program, repeatedly rejecting US and allied demands for a complete halt or zero-enrichment outcome in ongoing bilateral talks. Recent military strikes on Iranian facilities in 2025–2026 damaged infrastructure and left enriched uranium stockpiles inaccessible or buried, effectively pausing active enrichment without any formal Iranian commitment to forgo it permanently. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran ended active hostilities and opened a 60-day window for further nuclear discussions focused on stockpile disposition and verification, yet Iranian officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian have explicitly framed enrichment limits as non-negotiable red lines. These dynamics, combined with Iran's history of insisting on limited, IAEA-monitored activity rather than elimination, underpin trader consensus that a binding public agreement to end enrichment by year-end remains improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено14% шанс
$1,587,977 Обс.
$1,587,977 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
14% шанс
$1,587,977 Обс.
$1,587,977 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran maintains its longstanding position that uranium enrichment is a sovereign right tied to its civilian nuclear program, repeatedly rejecting US and allied demands for a complete halt or zero-enrichment outcome in ongoing bilateral talks. Recent military strikes on Iranian facilities in 2025–2026 damaged infrastructure and left enriched uranium stockpiles inaccessible or buried, effectively pausing active enrichment without any formal Iranian commitment to forgo it permanently. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran ended active hostilities and opened a 60-day window for further nuclear discussions focused on stockpile disposition and verification, yet Iranian officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian have explicitly framed enrichment limits as non-negotiable red lines. These dynamics, combined with Iran's history of insisting on limited, IAEA-monitored activity rather than elimination, underpin trader consensus that a binding public agreement to end enrichment by year-end remains improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,587,977Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran maintains its longstanding position that uranium enrichment is a sovereign right tied to its civilian nuclear program, repeatedly rejecting US and allied demands for a complete halt or zero-enrichment outcome in ongoing bilateral talks. Recent military strikes on Iranian facilities in 2025–2026 damaged infrastructure and left enriched uranium stockpiles inaccessible or buried, effectively pausing active enrichment without any formal Iranian commitment to forgo it permanently. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran ended active hostilities and opened a 60-day window for further nuclear discussions focused on stockpile disposition and verification, yet Iranian officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian have explicitly framed enrichment limits as non-negotiable red lines. These dynamics, combined with Iran's history of insisting on limited, IAEA-monitored activity rather than elimination, underpin trader consensus that a binding public agreement to end enrichment by year-end remains improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$1,587,977Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains its longstanding position that uranium enrichment is a sovereign right tied to its civilian nuclear program, repeatedly rejecting US and allied demands for a complete halt or zero-enrichment outcome in ongoing bilateral talks. Recent military strikes on Iranian facilities in 2025–2026 damaged infrastructure and left enriched uranium stockpiles inaccessible or buried, effectively pausing active enrichment without any formal Iranian commitment to forgo it permanently. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran ended active hostilities and opened a 60-day window for further nuclear discussions focused on stockpile disposition and verification, yet Iranian officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian have explicitly framed enrichment limits as non-negotiable red lines. These dynamics, combined with Iran's history of insisting on limited, IAEA-monitored activity rather than elimination, underpin trader consensus that a binding public agreement to end enrichment by year-end remains improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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