Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, mediated by Oman following 2025 strikes on Iranian facilities, have produced a framework agreement and reports of Iranian willingness to dispose of or downblend its highly enriched uranium stockpile under IAEA supervision. Recent statements from U.S. officials highlight progress on stockpile disposition and verification within a 60-day technical window, though enrichment limits remain a core dispute, with Tehran asserting its right to limited civilian enrichment and rejecting permanent zero-enrichment demands. These diplomatic steps, including ceasefire formalization and sanctions relief discussions, underpin traders' assessment of a 66% chance Iran agrees to end enrichment by year-end, while structural barriers like Supreme Leader directives and verification gaps sustain uncertainty.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$1,192,316 Обс.
$1,192,316 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$1,192,316 Обс.
$1,192,316 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, mediated by Oman following 2025 strikes on Iranian facilities, have produced a framework agreement and reports of Iranian willingness to dispose of or downblend its highly enriched uranium stockpile under IAEA supervision. Recent statements from U.S. officials highlight progress on stockpile disposition and verification within a 60-day technical window, though enrichment limits remain a core dispute, with Tehran asserting its right to limited civilian enrichment and rejecting permanent zero-enrichment demands. These diplomatic steps, including ceasefire formalization and sanctions relief discussions, underpin traders' assessment of a 66% chance Iran agrees to end enrichment by year-end, while structural barriers like Supreme Leader directives and verification gaps sustain uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,192,316Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, mediated by Oman following 2025 strikes on Iranian facilities, have produced a framework agreement and reports of Iranian willingness to dispose of or downblend its highly enriched uranium stockpile under IAEA supervision. Recent statements from U.S. officials highlight progress on stockpile disposition and verification within a 60-day technical window, though enrichment limits remain a core dispute, with Tehran asserting its right to limited civilian enrichment and rejecting permanent zero-enrichment demands. These diplomatic steps, including ceasefire formalization and sanctions relief discussions, underpin traders' assessment of a 66% chance Iran agrees to end enrichment by year-end, while structural barriers like Supreme Leader directives and verification gaps sustain uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$1,192,316Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, mediated by Oman following 2025 strikes on Iranian facilities, have produced a framework agreement and reports of Iranian willingness to dispose of or downblend its highly enriched uranium stockpile under IAEA supervision. Recent statements from U.S. officials highlight progress on stockpile disposition and verification within a 60-day technical window, though enrichment limits remain a core dispute, with Tehran asserting its right to limited civilian enrichment and rejecting permanent zero-enrichment demands. These diplomatic steps, including ceasefire formalization and sanctions relief discussions, underpin traders' assessment of a 66% chance Iran agrees to end enrichment by year-end, while structural barriers like Supreme Leader directives and verification gaps sustain uncertainty.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання