Recent U.S.-Iran tensions center on the February–July 2026 conflict involving joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes (Operation Epic Fury), Iranian retaliation, and a subsequent June memorandum of understanding brokered by Pakistan and Qatar that halted major hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz under conditions, eased some sanctions, and launched 60-day nuclear talks with IAEA inspector access. As of August 2026, President Trump has shifted emphasis to economic pressure, compensation demands, and “low-key” negotiations rather than expanded military operations, despite periodic strikes and Hormuz disputes. These diplomatic and limited-action patterns, combined with the high costs of the prior campaign and ongoing mediation, underpin trader consensus against a full-scale U.S. ground invasion before 2027.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЧи вторгнуться США в Іран до 2027 року?
Чи вторгнуться США в Іран до 2027 року?
Так
18% шанс
$58,558,282 Обс.
$58,558,282 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Так
18% шанс
$58,558,282 Обс.
$58,558,282 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S.-Iran tensions center on the February–July 2026 conflict involving joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes (Operation Epic Fury), Iranian retaliation, and a subsequent June memorandum of understanding brokered by Pakistan and Qatar that halted major hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz under conditions, eased some sanctions, and launched 60-day nuclear talks with IAEA inspector access. As of August 2026, President Trump has shifted emphasis to economic pressure, compensation demands, and “low-key” negotiations rather than expanded military operations, despite periodic strikes and Hormuz disputes. These diplomatic and limited-action patterns, combined with the high costs of the prior campaign and ongoing mediation, underpin trader consensus against a full-scale U.S. ground invasion before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Обсяг
$58,558,282Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S.-Iran tensions center on the February–July 2026 conflict involving joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes (Operation Epic Fury), Iranian retaliation, and a subsequent June memorandum of understanding brokered by Pakistan and Qatar that halted major hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz under conditions, eased some sanctions, and launched 60-day nuclear talks with IAEA inspector access. As of August 2026, President Trump has shifted emphasis to economic pressure, compensation demands, and “low-key” negotiations rather than expanded military operations, despite periodic strikes and Hormuz disputes. These diplomatic and limited-action patterns, combined with the high costs of the prior campaign and ongoing mediation, underpin trader consensus against a full-scale U.S. ground invasion before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Обсяг
$58,558,282Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Iran tensions center on the February–July 2026 conflict involving joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes (Operation Epic Fury), Iranian retaliation, and a subsequent June memorandum of understanding brokered by Pakistan and Qatar that halted major hostilities, reopened the Strait of Hormuz under conditions, eased some sanctions, and launched 60-day nuclear talks with IAEA inspector access. As of August 2026, President Trump has shifted emphasis to economic pressure, compensation demands, and “low-key” negotiations rather than expanded military operations, despite periodic strikes and Hormuz disputes. These diplomatic and limited-action patterns, combined with the high costs of the prior campaign and ongoing mediation, underpin trader consensus against a full-scale U.S. ground invasion before 2027.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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