A fragile US-Iran ceasefire, extended in April amid Strait of Hormuz standoffs, continues to hold despite recent naval clashes and US self-defense strikes on Iranian ports as of May 11, anchoring trader consensus at 73.5% against a full US ground invasion before 2027. President Trump's diplomacy, including May 15 talks with China's Xi Jinping on de-escalation and criticism of Tehran's latest nuclear proposal, signals preference for negotiations over escalation, while Defense Secretary Hegseth testified on May 13 about potential further action but emphasized no boots-on-ground commitment. Logistical challenges from regional heat and Iran's retained missile capabilities further deter a major offensive, aligning with historical US aversion to protracted Middle East ground wars post-Iraq. Upcoming talks could shift odds if stalled.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЧи вторгнуться США в Іран до 2027 року?
Чи вторгнуться США в Іран до 2027 року?
Так
$28,156,539 Обс.
$28,156,539 Обс.
Так
$28,156,539 Обс.
$28,156,539 Обс.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile US-Iran ceasefire, extended in April amid Strait of Hormuz standoffs, continues to hold despite recent naval clashes and US self-defense strikes on Iranian ports as of May 11, anchoring trader consensus at 73.5% against a full US ground invasion before 2027. President Trump's diplomacy, including May 15 talks with China's Xi Jinping on de-escalation and criticism of Tehran's latest nuclear proposal, signals preference for negotiations over escalation, while Defense Secretary Hegseth testified on May 13 about potential further action but emphasized no boots-on-ground commitment. Logistical challenges from regional heat and Iran's retained missile capabilities further deter a major offensive, aligning with historical US aversion to protracted Middle East ground wars post-Iraq. Upcoming talks could shift odds if stalled.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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