Recent U.S.-Iran tensions escalated into joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in late February 2026, triggering weeks of missile exchanges and regional disruption before an April ceasefire. Negotiations produced a June memorandum of understanding that lifted naval blockades, eased some sanctions, and launched talks on the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues, with mediators including Pakistan and Oman. Renewed Iranian restrictions on Hormuz traffic prompted limited U.S. strikes in July and August, yet officials have prioritized economic pressure, asset releases tied to verified steps, and reconstruction commitments over ground operations. Logistical demands, War Powers constraints, and the preference for containment through air and naval means rather than occupation continue to shape trader consensus against a U.S. invasion before year-end.