**Ongoing geopolitical tensions and effective restrictions continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving market-implied odds toward the lowest weekly transit bins.** The leading 25-49 outcome (41%) and <25 bin (29.5%) reflect real-time data showing daily crossings stuck near 9–17 vessels—well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 60–140 per day—as of early August 2026. Persistent risks from Iranian naval assertions, renewed U.S. blockade measures, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums have kept operators cautious, with hundreds of vessels idled and many rerouting via longer, costlier paths around Africa. Recent ceasefire and MOU frameworks from June produced only brief, modest rebounds before traffic fell again amid compliance disputes and attacks on non-compliant ships. These dynamics anchor trader consensus in the lowest ranges for the August 10 week, though any rapid de-escalation or verified clearance of navigation hazards could still shift volumes higher before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10?
25-49 41%
<25 30%
50-74 15%
75-99 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 16, 2026
<25
30%
25-49
41%
50-74
15%
75-99
12%
100+
6%
25-49 41%
<25 30%
50-74 15%
75-99 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 16, 2026
<25
$141 Обс.
30%
25-49
$96 Обс.
41%
50-74
$62 Обс.
15%
75-99
$76 Обс.
12%
100+
$164 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions and effective restrictions continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving market-implied odds toward the lowest weekly transit bins.**
The leading 25-49 outcome (41%) and <25 bin (29.5%) reflect real-time data showing daily crossings stuck near 9–17 vessels—well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 60–140 per day—as of early August 2026. Persistent risks from Iranian naval assertions, renewed U.S. blockade measures, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums have kept operators cautious, with hundreds of vessels idled and many rerouting via longer, costlier paths around Africa. Recent ceasefire and MOU frameworks from June produced only brief, modest rebounds before traffic fell again amid compliance disputes and attacks on non-compliant ships.
These dynamics anchor trader consensus in the lowest ranges for the August 10 week, though any rapid de-escalation or verified clearance of navigation hazards could still shift volumes higher before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Обсяг
$539Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions and effective restrictions continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving market-implied odds toward the lowest weekly transit bins.**
The leading 25-49 outcome (41%) and <25 bin (29.5%) reflect real-time data showing daily crossings stuck near 9–17 vessels—well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 60–140 per day—as of early August 2026. Persistent risks from Iranian naval assertions, renewed U.S. blockade measures, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums have kept operators cautious, with hundreds of vessels idled and many rerouting via longer, costlier paths around Africa. Recent ceasefire and MOU frameworks from June produced only brief, modest rebounds before traffic fell again amid compliance disputes and attacks on non-compliant ships.
These dynamics anchor trader consensus in the lowest ranges for the August 10 week, though any rapid de-escalation or verified clearance of navigation hazards could still shift volumes higher before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Обсяг
$539Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing geopolitical tensions and effective restrictions continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving market-implied odds toward the lowest weekly transit bins.** The leading 25-49 outcome (41%) and <25 bin (29.5%) reflect real-time data showing daily crossings stuck near 9–17 vessels—well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 60–140 per day—as of early August 2026. Persistent risks from Iranian naval assertions, renewed U.S. blockade measures, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums have kept operators cautious, with hundreds of vessels idled and many rerouting via longer, costlier paths around Africa. Recent ceasefire and MOU frameworks from June produced only brief, modest rebounds before traffic fell again amid compliance disputes and attacks on non-compliant ships. These dynamics anchor trader consensus in the lowest ranges for the August 10 week, though any rapid de-escalation or verified clearance of navigation hazards could still shift volumes higher before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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