Ongoing regional tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict, including repeated US-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile-drone responses earlier in the year, continue to shape expectations for any Israeli airspace closure. As of mid-August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open despite EASA advisories on elevated risks from potential proxy actions by Hezbollah or direct escalations. Renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz, Israeli operations in Lebanon and Gaza, and Iranian threats against regional energy infrastructure have sustained volatility without triggering immediate shutdowns. Trader consensus reflects the absence of confirmed imminent threats large enough to force closure, though diplomatic talks, further strikes, or cross-border incidents within the coming weeks could alter that assessment. Historical patterns show temporary closures tied directly to active missile barrages rather than general alerts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$26,966,269 Обс.
Aug 15, 2026
August 15
1%
August 31
7%
$26,966,269 Обс.
August 15
$946,517 Обс.
1%
August 31
$996,568 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict, including repeated US-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile-drone responses earlier in the year, continue to shape expectations for any Israeli airspace closure. As of mid-August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open despite EASA advisories on elevated risks from potential proxy actions by Hezbollah or direct escalations. Renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz, Israeli operations in Lebanon and Gaza, and Iranian threats against regional energy infrastructure have sustained volatility without triggering immediate shutdowns. Trader consensus reflects the absence of confirmed imminent threats large enough to force closure, though diplomatic talks, further strikes, or cross-border incidents within the coming weeks could alter that assessment. Historical patterns show temporary closures tied directly to active missile barrages rather than general alerts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Обсяг
$26,966,269Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict, including repeated US-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile-drone responses earlier in the year, continue to shape expectations for any Israeli airspace closure. As of mid-August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open despite EASA advisories on elevated risks from potential proxy actions by Hezbollah or direct escalations. Renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz, Israeli operations in Lebanon and Gaza, and Iranian threats against regional energy infrastructure have sustained volatility without triggering immediate shutdowns. Trader consensus reflects the absence of confirmed imminent threats large enough to force closure, though diplomatic talks, further strikes, or cross-border incidents within the coming weeks could alter that assessment. Historical patterns show temporary closures tied directly to active missile barrages rather than general alerts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$26,966,269Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 18, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict, including repeated US-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile-drone responses earlier in the year, continue to shape expectations for any Israeli airspace closure. As of mid-August 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open despite EASA advisories on elevated risks from potential proxy actions by Hezbollah or direct escalations. Renewed military activity around the Strait of Hormuz, Israeli operations in Lebanon and Gaza, and Iranian threats against regional energy infrastructure have sustained volatility without triggering immediate shutdowns. Trader consensus reflects the absence of confirmed imminent threats large enough to force closure, though diplomatic talks, further strikes, or cross-border incidents within the coming weeks could alter that assessment. Historical patterns show temporary closures tied directly to active missile barrages rather than general alerts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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