Israel's airspace remains open to commercial flights as of mid-May 2026, following a full reopening in early March after a February 28 shutdown triggered by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran that prompted Iranian missile retaliations and widespread regional closures. No verified closures have occurred in the past 30 days despite ongoing tensions, including Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon and sporadic Iranian threats, with Israeli aviation officials recommending but not enacting shutdowns in late March. Recent diplomatic moves, such as Prime Minister Netanyahu's secret UAE visit and Saudi discussions on post-war non-aggression pacts with Iran, signal de-escalation efforts, while Lufthansa's planned June resumption reflects trader confidence in stability. Upcoming risks include potential Israeli ground escalation in Lebanon or renewed Iranian airstrikes, which could rapidly alter airspace status and market odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$840,516 Обс.
May 31, 2026
May 31
31%
June 30
43%
$840,516 Обс.
May 31
$339,755 Обс.
31%
June 30
$5,513 Обс.
43%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's airspace remains open to commercial flights as of mid-May 2026, following a full reopening in early March after a February 28 shutdown triggered by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran that prompted Iranian missile retaliations and widespread regional closures. No verified closures have occurred in the past 30 days despite ongoing tensions, including Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon and sporadic Iranian threats, with Israeli aviation officials recommending but not enacting shutdowns in late March. Recent diplomatic moves, such as Prime Minister Netanyahu's secret UAE visit and Saudi discussions on post-war non-aggression pacts with Iran, signal de-escalation efforts, while Lufthansa's planned June resumption reflects trader confidence in stability. Upcoming risks include potential Israeli ground escalation in Lebanon or renewed Iranian airstrikes, which could rapidly alter airspace status and market odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Обсяг
$840,516Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's airspace remains open to commercial flights as of mid-May 2026, following a full reopening in early March after a February 28 shutdown triggered by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran that prompted Iranian missile retaliations and widespread regional closures. No verified closures have occurred in the past 30 days despite ongoing tensions, including Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon and sporadic Iranian threats, with Israeli aviation officials recommending but not enacting shutdowns in late March. Recent diplomatic moves, such as Prime Minister Netanyahu's secret UAE visit and Saudi discussions on post-war non-aggression pacts with Iran, signal de-escalation efforts, while Lufthansa's planned June resumption reflects trader confidence in stability. Upcoming risks include potential Israeli ground escalation in Lebanon or renewed Iranian airstrikes, which could rapidly alter airspace status and market odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$840,516Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's airspace remains open to commercial flights as of mid-May 2026, following a full reopening in early March after a February 28 shutdown triggered by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran that prompted Iranian missile retaliations and widespread regional closures. No verified closures have occurred in the past 30 days despite ongoing tensions, including Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon and sporadic Iranian threats, with Israeli aviation officials recommending but not enacting shutdowns in late March. Recent diplomatic moves, such as Prime Minister Netanyahu's secret UAE visit and Saudi discussions on post-war non-aggression pacts with Iran, signal de-escalation efforts, while Lufthansa's planned June resumption reflects trader confidence in stability. Upcoming risks include potential Israeli ground escalation in Lebanon or renewed Iranian airstrikes, which could rapidly alter airspace status and market odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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