Escalating US-Iran hostilities and resulting shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of global oil flows—represent the core driver behind trader positioning on naval transits by August 31. Renewed strikes and Iranian restrictions since mid-July have sharply reduced vessel traffic, lifted insurance premiums, and supported elevated crude futures, with Brent and WTI reflecting persistent supply-risk premiums. President Trump’s earlier calls for a coalition involving the US, UK, France, Japan, South Korea, and China underscore potential multilateral involvement to secure the waterway, though actual deployments remain limited amid stalled negotiations. Market-implied odds will likely hinge on near-term diplomatic signals, any new tanker incidents, and energy-price reactions ahead of the deadline, as traders weigh the high barriers to coordinated naval action against the economic costs of prolonged closure risks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
US
23%
UK
6%
France
5%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
5%
Australia
4%
Greece
3%
Italy
2%
$2,420 Обс.
US
$633 Обс.
23%
UK
$301 Обс.
6%
France
$0 Обс.
5%
Germany
$519 Обс.
5%
Netherlands
$0 Обс.
5%
Australia
$851 Обс.
4%
Greece
$31 Обс.
3%
Italy
$85 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Escalating US-Iran hostilities and resulting shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of global oil flows—represent the core driver behind trader positioning on naval transits by August 31. Renewed strikes and Iranian restrictions since mid-July have sharply reduced vessel traffic, lifted insurance premiums, and supported elevated crude futures, with Brent and WTI reflecting persistent supply-risk premiums. President Trump’s earlier calls for a coalition involving the US, UK, France, Japan, South Korea, and China underscore potential multilateral involvement to secure the waterway, though actual deployments remain limited amid stalled negotiations. Market-implied odds will likely hinge on near-term diplomatic signals, any new tanker incidents, and energy-price reactions ahead of the deadline, as traders weigh the high barriers to coordinated naval action against the economic costs of prolonged closure risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Обсяг
$2,420Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Escalating US-Iran hostilities and resulting shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of global oil flows—represent the core driver behind trader positioning on naval transits by August 31. Renewed strikes and Iranian restrictions since mid-July have sharply reduced vessel traffic, lifted insurance premiums, and supported elevated crude futures, with Brent and WTI reflecting persistent supply-risk premiums. President Trump’s earlier calls for a coalition involving the US, UK, France, Japan, South Korea, and China underscore potential multilateral involvement to secure the waterway, though actual deployments remain limited amid stalled negotiations. Market-implied odds will likely hinge on near-term diplomatic signals, any new tanker incidents, and energy-price reactions ahead of the deadline, as traders weigh the high barriers to coordinated naval action against the economic costs of prolonged closure risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Обсяг
$2,420Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating US-Iran hostilities and resulting shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of global oil flows—represent the core driver behind trader positioning on naval transits by August 31. Renewed strikes and Iranian restrictions since mid-July have sharply reduced vessel traffic, lifted insurance premiums, and supported elevated crude futures, with Brent and WTI reflecting persistent supply-risk premiums. President Trump’s earlier calls for a coalition involving the US, UK, France, Japan, South Korea, and China underscore potential multilateral involvement to secure the waterway, though actual deployments remain limited amid stalled negotiations. Market-implied odds will likely hinge on near-term diplomatic signals, any new tanker incidents, and energy-price reactions ahead of the deadline, as traders weigh the high barriers to coordinated naval action against the economic costs of prolonged closure risks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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