Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island, one of seven strategic outposts it uses to monitor and influence traffic through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Recent developments center on naval and diplomatic maneuvering rather than territorial challenges: Iran has enforced restricted shipping zones, deployed mines, and struck vessels while rejecting parallel routes, prompting U.S. strikes on nearby targets including Larak Island rocket launchers in late August. No ground operations, amphibious assaults, or coalition advances targeting Hormuz Island have been reported. Trader consensus prices any near-term loss of Iranian control at low single digits, reflecting the emphasis on maritime interdiction, sanctions enforcement, and negotiations over direct island seizures. Resolution depends on official government statements and credible reporting confirming a change in administration.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$71,135 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
3%
$71,135 Обс.
September 30
$858 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island, one of seven strategic outposts it uses to monitor and influence traffic through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Recent developments center on naval and diplomatic maneuvering rather than territorial challenges: Iran has enforced restricted shipping zones, deployed mines, and struck vessels while rejecting parallel routes, prompting U.S. strikes on nearby targets including Larak Island rocket launchers in late August. No ground operations, amphibious assaults, or coalition advances targeting Hormuz Island have been reported. Trader consensus prices any near-term loss of Iranian control at low single digits, reflecting the emphasis on maritime interdiction, sanctions enforcement, and negotiations over direct island seizures. Resolution depends on official government statements and credible reporting confirming a change in administration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ET
Обсяг
$71,135Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island, one of seven strategic outposts it uses to monitor and influence traffic through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Recent developments center on naval and diplomatic maneuvering rather than territorial challenges: Iran has enforced restricted shipping zones, deployed mines, and struck vessels while rejecting parallel routes, prompting U.S. strikes on nearby targets including Larak Island rocket launchers in late August. No ground operations, amphibious assaults, or coalition advances targeting Hormuz Island have been reported. Trader consensus prices any near-term loss of Iranian control at low single digits, reflecting the emphasis on maritime interdiction, sanctions enforcement, and negotiations over direct island seizures. Resolution depends on official government statements and credible reporting confirming a change in administration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$71,135Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island, one of seven strategic outposts it uses to monitor and influence traffic through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Recent developments center on naval and diplomatic maneuvering rather than territorial challenges: Iran has enforced restricted shipping zones, deployed mines, and struck vessels while rejecting parallel routes, prompting U.S. strikes on nearby targets including Larak Island rocket launchers in late August. No ground operations, amphibious assaults, or coalition advances targeting Hormuz Island have been reported. Trader consensus prices any near-term loss of Iranian control at low single digits, reflecting the emphasis on maritime interdiction, sanctions enforcement, and negotiations over direct island seizures. Resolution depends on official government statements and credible reporting confirming a change in administration.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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