Ongoing Iran-US tensions since the February 2026 strikes have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic severely restricted, with AIS-visible transits averaging just 3–8% of the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 85 vessels per day. Recent attacks on tankers, Iranian demands for sanctions relief and an end to naval blockades before reopening, and stalled mediation have prevented any return to normal free transit. Oil flows continue at 70–80% of prior levels via shuttles, dark vessels, and transfers, but these workarounds reflect persistent risk rather than normalization. With no diplomatic breakthrough imminent and November 30 only weeks away, trader consensus at 90.5% against normalization aligns with the lack of verifiable de-escalation signals. A sudden ceasefire or agreement meeting Tehran’s conditions could still shift odds, though recent rhetoric suggests limited near-term probability.