The Iranian regime's institutional resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination has anchored trader expectations against any coup attempt by June 30. Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role within days, backed by pledges from the IRGC and senior officials, while security forces have sustained order through arrests, executions, and suppression of protests amid economic strain. Recent assessments note no defections among military or political elites, no organized internal opposition poised for rapid action, and a shift toward greater hardline and military influence that reinforces continuity. With a fragile ceasefire holding and no verified reports of imminent leadership fractures or uprisings, the consensus reflects the high barriers to a successful coup in the near term.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоТак
$1,122,908 Обс.
$1,122,908 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
Так
$1,122,908 Обс.
$1,122,908 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime's institutional resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination has anchored trader expectations against any coup attempt by June 30. Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role within days, backed by pledges from the IRGC and senior officials, while security forces have sustained order through arrests, executions, and suppression of protests amid economic strain. Recent assessments note no defections among military or political elites, no organized internal opposition poised for rapid action, and a shift toward greater hardline and military influence that reinforces continuity. With a fragile ceasefire holding and no verified reports of imminent leadership fractures or uprisings, the consensus reflects the high barriers to a successful coup in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,122,908Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime's institutional resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination has anchored trader expectations against any coup attempt by June 30. Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role within days, backed by pledges from the IRGC and senior officials, while security forces have sustained order through arrests, executions, and suppression of protests amid economic strain. Recent assessments note no defections among military or political elites, no organized internal opposition poised for rapid action, and a shift toward greater hardline and military influence that reinforces continuity. With a fragile ceasefire holding and no verified reports of imminent leadership fractures or uprisings, the consensus reflects the high barriers to a successful coup in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$1,122,908Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's institutional resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination has anchored trader expectations against any coup attempt by June 30. Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role within days, backed by pledges from the IRGC and senior officials, while security forces have sustained order through arrests, executions, and suppression of protests amid economic strain. Recent assessments note no defections among military or political elites, no organized internal opposition poised for rapid action, and a shift toward greater hardline and military influence that reinforces continuity. With a fragile ceasefire holding and no verified reports of imminent leadership fractures or uprisings, the consensus reflects the high barriers to a successful coup in the near term.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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