Iran’s internal factional tensions and power struggles following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s February 2026 assassination during the US-Israel conflict remain the core driver of trader views on any coup attempt. Hardline lawmakers publicly accused officials negotiating a US truce of staging a “soft coup” against revolutionary institutions in July 2026, amid disputes over the agreement and the new supreme leader’s limited visibility. Earlier reports referenced a failed January 2026 effort involving former President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zarif that lacked key military backing. Ongoing economic pressures, suppressed 2025–2026 protests, and elite cohesion through the IRGC and security apparatus have limited visible fractures, though succession uncertainty and truce implementation could still surface rivalries capable of prompting reported attempts before resolution deadlines.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$2,115,813 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
12%
$2,115,813 Обс.
December 31
$74,587 Обс.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s internal factional tensions and power struggles following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s February 2026 assassination during the US-Israel conflict remain the core driver of trader views on any coup attempt. Hardline lawmakers publicly accused officials negotiating a US truce of staging a “soft coup” against revolutionary institutions in July 2026, amid disputes over the agreement and the new supreme leader’s limited visibility. Earlier reports referenced a failed January 2026 effort involving former President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zarif that lacked key military backing. Ongoing economic pressures, suppressed 2025–2026 protests, and elite cohesion through the IRGC and security apparatus have limited visible fractures, though succession uncertainty and truce implementation could still surface rivalries capable of prompting reported attempts before resolution deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,115,813Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s internal factional tensions and power struggles following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s February 2026 assassination during the US-Israel conflict remain the core driver of trader views on any coup attempt. Hardline lawmakers publicly accused officials negotiating a US truce of staging a “soft coup” against revolutionary institutions in July 2026, amid disputes over the agreement and the new supreme leader’s limited visibility. Earlier reports referenced a failed January 2026 effort involving former President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zarif that lacked key military backing. Ongoing economic pressures, suppressed 2025–2026 protests, and elite cohesion through the IRGC and security apparatus have limited visible fractures, though succession uncertainty and truce implementation could still surface rivalries capable of prompting reported attempts before resolution deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$2,115,813Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s internal factional tensions and power struggles following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s February 2026 assassination during the US-Israel conflict remain the core driver of trader views on any coup attempt. Hardline lawmakers publicly accused officials negotiating a US truce of staging a “soft coup” against revolutionary institutions in July 2026, amid disputes over the agreement and the new supreme leader’s limited visibility. Earlier reports referenced a failed January 2026 effort involving former President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zarif that lacked key military backing. Ongoing economic pressures, suppressed 2025–2026 protests, and elite cohesion through the IRGC and security apparatus have limited visible fractures, though succession uncertainty and truce implementation could still surface rivalries capable of prompting reported attempts before resolution deadlines.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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