**Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which sharply curtailed Strait of Hormuz traffic since late February 2026, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment.** Pre-crisis daily averages ranged from roughly 80-140 vessels; recent July readings have stabilized around 20-31 transits amid selective risk-adjusted flows, with many shippers still avoiding the route due to attack risks, elevated insurance premiums, and rerouting. Closely matched probabilities across the 20-40, 40-60, 60-80, and 80+ bins reflect uncertainty over the pace of normalization following the June 17 MoU and any incremental de-escalation. Key swing factors include potential further diplomatic progress, sustained military activity, tanker operator decisions on AIS visibility and routing, and broader oil-market dynamics such as floating storage levels and global risk appetite. Resolution by end-August hinges on whether these elements support a modest rebound above 40 vessels daily or keep volumes suppressed in the low-to-mid 20s.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
20-40 45%
0-20 43%
80+ 37%
60-80 37%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
0-20
43%
20-40
45%
40-60
36%
60-80
37%
80+
37%
20-40 45%
0-20 43%
80+ 37%
60-80 37%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
0-20
$20 Обс.
43%
20-40
$20 Обс.
45%
40-60
$20 Обс.
36%
60-80
$20 Обс.
37%
80+
$22 Обс.
37%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which sharply curtailed Strait of Hormuz traffic since late February 2026, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment.** Pre-crisis daily averages ranged from roughly 80-140 vessels; recent July readings have stabilized around 20-31 transits amid selective risk-adjusted flows, with many shippers still avoiding the route due to attack risks, elevated insurance premiums, and rerouting.
Closely matched probabilities across the 20-40, 40-60, 60-80, and 80+ bins reflect uncertainty over the pace of normalization following the June 17 MoU and any incremental de-escalation. Key swing factors include potential further diplomatic progress, sustained military activity, tanker operator decisions on AIS visibility and routing, and broader oil-market dynamics such as floating storage levels and global risk appetite. Resolution by end-August hinges on whether these elements support a modest rebound above 40 vessels daily or keep volumes suppressed in the low-to-mid 20s.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Обсяг
$102Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which sharply curtailed Strait of Hormuz traffic since late February 2026, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment.** Pre-crisis daily averages ranged from roughly 80-140 vessels; recent July readings have stabilized around 20-31 transits amid selective risk-adjusted flows, with many shippers still avoiding the route due to attack risks, elevated insurance premiums, and rerouting.
Closely matched probabilities across the 20-40, 40-60, 60-80, and 80+ bins reflect uncertainty over the pace of normalization following the June 17 MoU and any incremental de-escalation. Key swing factors include potential further diplomatic progress, sustained military activity, tanker operator decisions on AIS visibility and routing, and broader oil-market dynamics such as floating storage levels and global risk appetite. Resolution by end-August hinges on whether these elements support a modest rebound above 40 vessels daily or keep volumes suppressed in the low-to-mid 20s.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Обсяг
$102Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which sharply curtailed Strait of Hormuz traffic since late February 2026, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment.** Pre-crisis daily averages ranged from roughly 80-140 vessels; recent July readings have stabilized around 20-31 transits amid selective risk-adjusted flows, with many shippers still avoiding the route due to attack risks, elevated insurance premiums, and rerouting. Closely matched probabilities across the 20-40, 40-60, 60-80, and 80+ bins reflect uncertainty over the pace of normalization following the June 17 MoU and any incremental de-escalation. Key swing factors include potential further diplomatic progress, sustained military activity, tanker operator decisions on AIS visibility and routing, and broader oil-market dynamics such as floating storage levels and global risk appetite. Resolution by end-August hinges on whether these elements support a modest rebound above 40 vessels daily or keep volumes suppressed in the low-to-mid 20s.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання