Geopolitical risks from renewed U.S.-Iran clashes and related attacks have sharply curtailed tanker and commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities across the 25-49, 50-74, 75-99, and 100+ weekly ranges. Recent data show daily traffic falling to low single digits or low double digits amid elevated insurance premiums, shipowner pullbacks, and sanctions exposure, far below pre-conflict benchmarks of roughly 100-plus daily passages. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that near-term de-escalation or sustained truce remains uncertain ahead of the August 3 week, with any credible diplomatic progress or renewed strikes as key swing factors that could shift volumes and resolve the competitive outcome distribution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 3?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 3?
25-49 46%
75-99 45%
<25 45%
50-74 45%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 9, 2026
<25
45%
25-49
46%
50-74
45%
75-99
45%
100+
44%
25-49 46%
75-99 45%
<25 45%
50-74 45%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 9, 2026
<25
$0 Обс.
45%
25-49
$0 Обс.
46%
50-74
$0 Обс.
45%
75-99
$0 Обс.
45%
100+
$0 Обс.
44%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical risks from renewed U.S.-Iran clashes and related attacks have sharply curtailed tanker and commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities across the 25-49, 50-74, 75-99, and 100+ weekly ranges. Recent data show daily traffic falling to low single digits or low double digits amid elevated insurance premiums, shipowner pullbacks, and sanctions exposure, far below pre-conflict benchmarks of roughly 100-plus daily passages. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that near-term de-escalation or sustained truce remains uncertain ahead of the August 3 week, with any credible diplomatic progress or renewed strikes as key swing factors that could shift volumes and resolve the competitive outcome distribution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Aug 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical risks from renewed U.S.-Iran clashes and related attacks have sharply curtailed tanker and commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities across the 25-49, 50-74, 75-99, and 100+ weekly ranges. Recent data show daily traffic falling to low single digits or low double digits amid elevated insurance premiums, shipowner pullbacks, and sanctions exposure, far below pre-conflict benchmarks of roughly 100-plus daily passages. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that near-term de-escalation or sustained truce remains uncertain ahead of the August 3 week, with any credible diplomatic progress or renewed strikes as key swing factors that could shift volumes and resolve the competitive outcome distribution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Aug 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Geopolitical risks from renewed U.S.-Iran clashes and related attacks have sharply curtailed tanker and commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities across the 25-49, 50-74, 75-99, and 100+ weekly ranges. Recent data show daily traffic falling to low single digits or low double digits amid elevated insurance premiums, shipowner pullbacks, and sanctions exposure, far below pre-conflict benchmarks of roughly 100-plus daily passages. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that near-term de-escalation or sustained truce remains uncertain ahead of the August 3 week, with any credible diplomatic progress or renewed strikes as key swing factors that could shift volumes and resolve the competitive outcome distribution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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