Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, primarily because Beijing has shown no large-scale military mobilization, amphibious exercises, or official declarations signaling imminent action in recent months. Economic interdependence with global supply chains, combined with sustained U.S. security commitments to Taiwan and regional alliances, continues to favor deterrence over direct conflict. This assessment aligns with historical patterns where China has prioritized gray-zone pressure and diplomatic signaling rather than crossing the threshold into invasion. Late-breaking developments that could still shift odds include abrupt changes in leadership priorities in Beijing, unexpected U.S. policy shifts, or a major escalation triggered by incidents in the Taiwan Strait.