Taiwan's ongoing Han Kuang drills and civil defense exercises through mid-August 2026 underscore continued preparation for potential coercion, yet show no signs of the large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for a full invasion. U.S. intelligence assessments from March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders lack both a 2027 invasion plan and any fixed unification timeline, citing ongoing purges in the PLA high command and capability gaps that would complicate rapid action. Beijing has maintained maritime patrols and air activity around Taiwan but has not escalated to the threshold of hostilities in the narrow window remaining before September 30. Trader consensus at 99.2% reflects this absence of verifiable indicators, though an unforeseen miscalculation in the Taiwan Strait or a sudden cross-strait incident could still alter the trajectory before the resolution date.