Persistent maritime confrontations in the South China Sea, including vessel rammings, water cannon use, and physical altercations at Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal through mid-2026, have not escalated into qualifying military clashes involving gunfire or significant damage to naval vessels. Both Beijing and Manila have maintained operational restraint, with China focusing on coast guard enforcement and gray-zone pressure while the Philippines deepens defense ties with the United States, Japan, and Australia through joint exercises and access agreements. Diplomatic channels, including Code of Conduct negotiations, and the deterrent effect of the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty continue to shape responses, as traders assess the low likelihood of a direct kinetic encounter before the end of 2026. Recent incidents have produced injuries and protests but remain below the threshold for market resolution to Yes, reinforcing the current 71.5% implied probability on No.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено29% шанс
$481,965 Обс.
$481,965 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
29% шанс
$481,965 Обс.
$481,965 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent maritime confrontations in the South China Sea, including vessel rammings, water cannon use, and physical altercations at Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal through mid-2026, have not escalated into qualifying military clashes involving gunfire or significant damage to naval vessels. Both Beijing and Manila have maintained operational restraint, with China focusing on coast guard enforcement and gray-zone pressure while the Philippines deepens defense ties with the United States, Japan, and Australia through joint exercises and access agreements. Diplomatic channels, including Code of Conduct negotiations, and the deterrent effect of the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty continue to shape responses, as traders assess the low likelihood of a direct kinetic encounter before the end of 2026. Recent incidents have produced injuries and protests but remain below the threshold for market resolution to Yes, reinforcing the current 71.5% implied probability on No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ET
Обсяг
$481,965Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent maritime confrontations in the South China Sea, including vessel rammings, water cannon use, and physical altercations at Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal through mid-2026, have not escalated into qualifying military clashes involving gunfire or significant damage to naval vessels. Both Beijing and Manila have maintained operational restraint, with China focusing on coast guard enforcement and gray-zone pressure while the Philippines deepens defense ties with the United States, Japan, and Australia through joint exercises and access agreements. Diplomatic channels, including Code of Conduct negotiations, and the deterrent effect of the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty continue to shape responses, as traders assess the low likelihood of a direct kinetic encounter before the end of 2026. Recent incidents have produced injuries and protests but remain below the threshold for market resolution to Yes, reinforcing the current 71.5% implied probability on No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$481,965Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Persistent maritime confrontations in the South China Sea, including vessel rammings, water cannon use, and physical altercations at Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal through mid-2026, have not escalated into qualifying military clashes involving gunfire or significant damage to naval vessels. Both Beijing and Manila have maintained operational restraint, with China focusing on coast guard enforcement and gray-zone pressure while the Philippines deepens defense ties with the United States, Japan, and Australia through joint exercises and access agreements. Diplomatic channels, including Code of Conduct negotiations, and the deterrent effect of the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty continue to shape responses, as traders assess the low likelihood of a direct kinetic encounter before the end of 2026. Recent incidents have produced injuries and protests but remain below the threshold for market resolution to Yes, reinforcing the current 71.5% implied probability on No.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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