The absence of any full blockade or quarantine through November 2026, despite sustained gray-zone pressure from Chinese coast guard patrols east of Taiwan and unannounced PLA exercises simulating isolation, underpins the 96% trader consensus against the outcome. Recent activity shows fluctuating aircraft sorties and vessel deployments coordinated across theater commands, yet remains below thresholds for actual commercial interdiction, consistent with U.S. assessments that Beijing prioritizes readiness benchmarks over immediate kinetic steps. Economic interdependence, allied deterrence signaling, and internal PLA constraints further reduce near-term escalation incentives. A sudden post-plenum directive, carrier surge before year-end, or miscalculation during routine patrols could still shift probabilities, though the calendar window for 2026 resolution narrows rapidly.