Traders assign a 93.2% probability to no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027, reflecting the absence of escalatory signals in recent months. Beijing has continued gray-zone pressure through air incursions and maritime activity while prioritizing political influence ahead of Taiwan’s 2028 elections and outreach to the opposition Kuomountang. A May 2026 U.S.-China summit produced direct warnings on Taiwan but also sustained diplomatic engagement, with no follow-on mobilization or blockade. Taiwan’s early-August Han Kuang drills and tabletop exercises on maritime quarantine response have emphasized defensive readiness and resilience without crossing provocative thresholds. These patterns, alongside China’s focus on longer-term capability development rather than near-term kinetic action, underpin the strong market consensus against an imminent clash.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоТак
7% шанс
$3,213,016 Обс.
$3,213,016 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Так
7% шанс
$3,213,016 Обс.
$3,213,016 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 93.2% probability to no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027, reflecting the absence of escalatory signals in recent months. Beijing has continued gray-zone pressure through air incursions and maritime activity while prioritizing political influence ahead of Taiwan’s 2028 elections and outreach to the opposition Kuomountang. A May 2026 U.S.-China summit produced direct warnings on Taiwan but also sustained diplomatic engagement, with no follow-on mobilization or blockade. Taiwan’s early-August Han Kuang drills and tabletop exercises on maritime quarantine response have emphasized defensive readiness and resilience without crossing provocative thresholds. These patterns, alongside China’s focus on longer-term capability development rather than near-term kinetic action, underpin the strong market consensus against an imminent clash.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Обсяг
$3,213,016Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 93.2% probability to no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027, reflecting the absence of escalatory signals in recent months. Beijing has continued gray-zone pressure through air incursions and maritime activity while prioritizing political influence ahead of Taiwan’s 2028 elections and outreach to the opposition Kuomountang. A May 2026 U.S.-China summit produced direct warnings on Taiwan but also sustained diplomatic engagement, with no follow-on mobilization or blockade. Taiwan’s early-August Han Kuang drills and tabletop exercises on maritime quarantine response have emphasized defensive readiness and resilience without crossing provocative thresholds. These patterns, alongside China’s focus on longer-term capability development rather than near-term kinetic action, underpin the strong market consensus against an imminent clash.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$3,213,016Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 93.2% probability to no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027, reflecting the absence of escalatory signals in recent months. Beijing has continued gray-zone pressure through air incursions and maritime activity while prioritizing political influence ahead of Taiwan’s 2028 elections and outreach to the opposition Kuomountang. A May 2026 U.S.-China summit produced direct warnings on Taiwan but also sustained diplomatic engagement, with no follow-on mobilization or blockade. Taiwan’s early-August Han Kuang drills and tabletop exercises on maritime quarantine response have emphasized defensive readiness and resilience without crossing provocative thresholds. These patterns, alongside China’s focus on longer-term capability development rather than near-term kinetic action, underpin the strong market consensus against an imminent clash.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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