The ongoing Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, concluded May 15, 2026, highlights diplomatic guardrails amid Taiwan tensions and South China Sea disputes, with Xi warning of potential clashes over US arms sales but both sides emphasizing stable relations and military-to-military communication channels per the US 2026 National Defense Strategy. Absent kinetic incidents in the past 30 days, economic interdependence, mutual deterrence postures—including US Pacific deployments and China's 7% defense spending hike—and stretched US resources from the Iran conflict drive trader consensus to price a 90.5% "No" probability for a military clash before year-end. Miscalculations or accidents could still shift odds, but de-escalation priorities dominate.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоUS x China Military clash before 2027?
US x China Military clash before 2027?
$109,437 Обс.
$109,437 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$109,437 Обс.
$109,437 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The ongoing Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, concluded May 15, 2026, highlights diplomatic guardrails amid Taiwan tensions and South China Sea disputes, with Xi warning of potential clashes over US arms sales but both sides emphasizing stable relations and military-to-military communication channels per the US 2026 National Defense Strategy. Absent kinetic incidents in the past 30 days, economic interdependence, mutual deterrence postures—including US Pacific deployments and China's 7% defense spending hike—and stretched US resources from the Iran conflict drive trader consensus to price a 90.5% "No" probability for a military clash before year-end. Miscalculations or accidents could still shift odds, but de-escalation priorities dominate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Обсяг
$109,437Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The ongoing Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, concluded May 15, 2026, highlights diplomatic guardrails amid Taiwan tensions and South China Sea disputes, with Xi warning of potential clashes over US arms sales but both sides emphasizing stable relations and military-to-military communication channels per the US 2026 National Defense Strategy. Absent kinetic incidents in the past 30 days, economic interdependence, mutual deterrence postures—including US Pacific deployments and China's 7% defense spending hike—and stretched US resources from the Iran conflict drive trader consensus to price a 90.5% "No" probability for a military clash before year-end. Miscalculations or accidents could still shift odds, but de-escalation priorities dominate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$109,437Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, concluded May 15, 2026, highlights diplomatic guardrails amid Taiwan tensions and South China Sea disputes, with Xi warning of potential clashes over US arms sales but both sides emphasizing stable relations and military-to-military communication channels per the US 2026 National Defense Strategy. Absent kinetic incidents in the past 30 days, economic interdependence, mutual deterrence postures—including US Pacific deployments and China's 7% defense spending hike—and stretched US resources from the Iran conflict drive trader consensus to price a 90.5% "No" probability for a military clash before year-end. Miscalculations or accidents could still shift odds, but de-escalation priorities dominate.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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