Trader consensus on a 98% "No" for President Lai Ching-te's impeachment by June 30 reflects the opposition's insurmountable structural barrier in the Legislative Yuan, where KMT and TPP hold 60 seats but require a three-fourths supermajority of 85 votes to pass an impeachment resolution under the ROC Constitution. The motion cleared initiation in December 2025 with a simple majority, prompting review hearings—including recent sessions on May 13-14 where Lai was absent—but the upcoming May 19 roll-call vote is expected to fail decisively absent DPP defections. Subsequent Control Yuan concurrence adds further hurdles. Only extraordinary developments like a major scandal triggering cross-party support could shift odds, though historical precedent shows no such shifts in Taiwan's polarized politics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLai Ching-te impeached by June 30?
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?
$618,895 Обс.
$618,895 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
$618,895 Обс.
$618,895 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus on a 98% "No" for President Lai Ching-te's impeachment by June 30 reflects the opposition's insurmountable structural barrier in the Legislative Yuan, where KMT and TPP hold 60 seats but require a three-fourths supermajority of 85 votes to pass an impeachment resolution under the ROC Constitution. The motion cleared initiation in December 2025 with a simple majority, prompting review hearings—including recent sessions on May 13-14 where Lai was absent—but the upcoming May 19 roll-call vote is expected to fail decisively absent DPP defections. Subsequent Control Yuan concurrence adds further hurdles. Only extraordinary developments like a major scandal triggering cross-party support could shift odds, though historical precedent shows no such shifts in Taiwan's polarized politics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Обсяг
$618,895Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus on a 98% "No" for President Lai Ching-te's impeachment by June 30 reflects the opposition's insurmountable structural barrier in the Legislative Yuan, where KMT and TPP hold 60 seats but require a three-fourths supermajority of 85 votes to pass an impeachment resolution under the ROC Constitution. The motion cleared initiation in December 2025 with a simple majority, prompting review hearings—including recent sessions on May 13-14 where Lai was absent—but the upcoming May 19 roll-call vote is expected to fail decisively absent DPP defections. Subsequent Control Yuan concurrence adds further hurdles. Only extraordinary developments like a major scandal triggering cross-party support could shift odds, though historical precedent shows no such shifts in Taiwan's polarized politics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Обсяг
$618,895Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a 98% "No" for President Lai Ching-te's impeachment by June 30 reflects the opposition's insurmountable structural barrier in the Legislative Yuan, where KMT and TPP hold 60 seats but require a three-fourths supermajority of 85 votes to pass an impeachment resolution under the ROC Constitution. The motion cleared initiation in December 2025 with a simple majority, prompting review hearings—including recent sessions on May 13-14 where Lai was absent—but the upcoming May 19 roll-call vote is expected to fail decisively absent DPP defections. Subsequent Control Yuan concurrence adds further hurdles. Only extraordinary developments like a major scandal triggering cross-party support could shift odds, though historical precedent shows no such shifts in Taiwan's polarized politics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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