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Політика·Китай

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

icon for Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Політика·Китай

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Jun 30

Sep 30

Dec 31

Jun 30, 2027

Jun 30

Sep 30

Dec 31

Jun 30, 2027

18% шанс
Polymarket

$576,273 Обс.

18% шанс
Polymarket

$576,273 Обс.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent U.S.-China summit in Beijing between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping, concluded May 15, 2026, featured direct discussions on Taiwan, with Xi warning mishandling could spark conflict while Trump addressed pending arms sales without committing to defense pledges. This diplomatic engagement, prioritizing trade truces and Iran war coordination, underscores mutual interest in stability over escalation, aligning with trader consensus at 82.5% against invasion by December 31, 2027. PLA aerial incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ fell to 169 in April—down from 2025 peaks—reflecting normalized pressure rather than invasion rehearsals. U.S. commitments elsewhere, Taiwan's new missile-capable coast guard vessels, and high economic-military costs for Beijing reinforce deterrence amid cross-strait tensions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$576,273
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent U.S.-China summit in Beijing between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping, concluded May 15, 2026, featured direct discussions on Taiwan, with Xi warning mishandling could spark conflict while Trump addressed pending arms sales without committing to defense pledges. This diplomatic engagement, prioritizing trade truces and Iran war coordination, underscores mutual interest in stability over escalation, aligning with trader consensus at 82.5% against invasion by December 31, 2027. PLA aerial incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ fell to 169 in April—down from 2025 peaks—reflecting normalized pressure rather than invasion rehearsals. U.S. commitments elsewhere, Taiwan's new missile-capable coast guard vessels, and high economic-military costs for Beijing reinforce deterrence amid cross-strait tensions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$576,273
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 18% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 18¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 18%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?» згенерував $576.3K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Mar 17, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?» — 18% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 18% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

Правила вирішення для «Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.