Export momentum in high-tech and AI-related goods continues to anchor China’s growth trajectory, with Q3 2026 GDP expanding 4.5% year-on-year—above expectations and lifting the year-to-date pace to 4.6%. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, Standard Chartered, and the World Bank now cluster 2026 full-year forecasts around 4.5–4.6%, consistent with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 4.6–4.9% and 4.3–4.6% brackets for Q4. Persistent weakness in domestic demand, reflected in subdued retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and the ongoing property-sector drag, caps upside while resilient external demand and modest policy support limit downside. October PMI and trade data reinforce this balanced outlook ahead of the year-end print.