Robust consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, OECD, and major banks project U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.7% for 2026, driven by resilient consumer spending, AI-related capital investment, and strong Q3 nowcasts near 5% annualized. Recent data revisions, including upgraded third-quarter estimates and low recession probabilities around 0.08%, reinforce this outlook amid sticky inflation and elevated energy prices. Market-implied odds near 98% reflect traders' alignment with these fundamentals and the limited scope for a full-year contraction. Tail risks include prolonged Middle East energy disruptions pushing inflation higher, an abrupt AI valuation correction, or sharper monetary tightening that could tip growth negative.