US inflation cools slightly to 3.4% in July but prices remain elevated

Above 4.5% plunges to 18%19%

Despite a slight decrease in the annual inflation rate to 3.4% in July 2026, consumer prices remain high, especially for essentials like food and housing, maintaining pressure on the cost of living and influencing Federal Reserve policy considerations.

US CPI inflation cools slightly to 3.4% in July but remains elevated

July 2026 CPI data showed a slight decrease in inflation to 3.4% year-over-year, continuing a trend of easing inflationary pressures. However, prices remained above pre-conflict levels, with energy costs still elevated due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.

July 2026 CPI report: Inflation rises 0.1% monthly, annual rate at 3.4%

Above 4.5% plunges to 18%19%

The July 2026 CPI report showed a modest 0.1% monthly increase and a 3.4% annual inflation rate, with shelter costs remaining a key contributor. The report indicated inflation pressures are moderating but still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Second quarter GDP growth slows and inflation dips slightly in July 2026

Above 4.5% dips to 20%4%

Reports in late July 2026 showed slower GDP growth and a slight dip in inflation, signaling a moderation in economic activity and inflation pressures, which influenced market expectations downward for higher inflation thresholds.

US economy growth slows in Q2 2026 as inflation remains stubbornly high

Data released in late July 2026 showed the US economy growing at a sluggish 1.5% annual rate in Q2, with inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target. This combination of slow growth and persistent inflation kept market expectations cautious about inflation spikes beyond moderate levels.

Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in July meeting

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in July 2026, continuing its cautious approach amid persistent inflation and economic uncertainties, with some dissent among officials.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady citing elevated inflation

The Fed, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, maintained interest rates at 3.5-3.75% during its July meeting, emphasizing ongoing inflation concerns driven by supply shocks including energy prices. The decision reflected a cautious approach amid persistent inflation above the 2% target.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July meeting

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29, 2026, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty. The decision was made despite internal dissent, indicating a cautious stance on monetary policy.

Federal Reserve signals hawkish stance at July 2026 meeting

The Federal Reserve's July meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized a more hawkish approach to inflation management, raising inflation projections and indicating potential rate hikes later in the year, influencing market expectations.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid divided views on inflation

At the July 29, 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, with three officials dissenting for a hike, reflecting ongoing debate about inflation risks and economic growth amid geopolitical tensions.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July meeting

In July 2026, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, acknowledging inflation pressures from the Iran conflict and other factors. The decision maintained market uncertainty about future rate hikes and inflation trajectory.

Federal Open Market Committee meeting provides updated guidance amid cooling inflation

Above 4.5% plunges to 24%23%

The July 29 FOMC meeting occurred after the June CPI report showed cooling inflation, with the Fed signaling a cautious approach to further rate hikes. This influenced market expectations, reducing the probability of aggressive tightening in late 2026.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty

Above 6% drops to 4%6%

At the July 29 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation pressures from the Iran conflict and economic uncertainties, which influenced market inflation expectations downward for higher thresholds.

Federal Reserve July 2026 interest rate decision expected amid inflation uncertainty

Ahead of the July 29 FOMC meeting, markets anticipated the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates amid mixed inflation signals, with core inflation remaining elevated despite headline easing, influencing market expectations for future monetary policy.

Federal Reserve Governor Cook highlights inflation risks and economic outlook

Governor Cook noted that headline inflation for 2026 is on track to be about 1 percentage point higher than expected, driven by core goods prices rising at a 5% annual pace. This commentary underscored persistent inflation risks and influenced market sentiment on inflation outcomes above 4.5% and 5%.

June 2026 Producer Price Index shows softening inflation pressures

Above 5% drops to 13%11%

The BLS published the Producer Price Index for June 2026 showing a 0.3% month-on-month decline and a 5.5% year-over-year increase, below expectations. This softer producer inflation data reinforced expectations of easing consumer inflation, influencing market sentiment to lower inflation probability.

BLS releases June 2026 Producer Price Index showing easing price pressures

Above 6% plunges to 5%42%

The June 2026 Producer Price Index fell 0.3% month-on-month and showed a year-over-year increase of 5.5%, below expectations, signaling easing upstream price pressures that could moderate consumer inflation, influencing market inflation outlooks.

Producer Price Index for June 2026 falls 0.3%, signaling easing inflation pressures

The June 2026 Producer Price Index fell 0.3% month-on-month, below expectations, reflecting a sharp drop in energy prices and reinforcing the cooling inflation trend seen in the CPI, which influenced market sentiment toward lower inflation outcomes.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signals no tolerance for elevated inflation

In testimony before Congress, Fed Chair Warsh emphasized a firm stance against inflation above the 2% target, indicating potential for future rate hikes if inflation does not moderate. This reinforced market views that inflation above 8% or 10% was unlikely in 2026.

Fed Governor Cook highlights inflation above expectations and resilient economy

Above 4.5% plunges to 24%16%

In a July 2026 speech, Fed Governor Cook noted that headline inflation for 2026 is tracking about 1 percentage point higher than expected, driven by core goods prices, underscoring inflation persistence and economic resilience.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid inflation uncertainty

In July 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns and mixed economic signals. This decision contributed to market expectations that inflation would remain moderate but above target through 2026.

US CPI June 2026: Inflation falls to 3.5%, below forecast

Above 4.5% plunges to 24%26%

The June 2026 CPI report showed inflation slowing to 3.5% year-over-year, below expectations, driven by a sharp decline in energy prices, signaling a potential easing of inflationary pressures.

BLS reports June 2026 CPI falls 0.4% monthly; annual inflation at 3.5%

Above 6% plunges to 4%43%

The June 2026 CPI report showed a monthly decrease of 0.4%, the largest since April 2020, with annual inflation easing to 3.5%. Energy prices declined, easing inflationary pressures and contributing to market price declines for higher inflation outcomes.

June 2026 CPI falls 0.4% monthly; annual inflation cools to 3.5%

Above 4.5% rises to 21%2%

The BLS reported a 0.4% monthly decline in June CPI, the largest since April 2020, driven by falling energy prices. Annual inflation eased to 3.5%, signaling a moderation in inflation pressures and reducing odds of very high inflation outcomes.

July 2026 CPI report scheduled for August 12, markets await inflation data amid easing energy prices

Above 4.5% dips to 21%3%

The July 2026 CPI report was scheduled for release on August 12, 2026, with markets closely watching for inflation signals following the June decline. Energy prices showed continued volatility, influencing inflation expectations and market pricing for outcomes above 4.5% and 5%.

July 2026 CPI inflation edges up 0.1%, annual rate cools to 3.4%

Above 6% dips to 3%3%

July CPI data showed a slight monthly increase of 0.1% but a decline in the annual inflation rate to 3.4%, reflecting easing energy price pressures and a moderation in core inflation, signaling a gradual cooling of inflation.

June 2026 CPI reports sharp inflation drop to 3.5% as energy prices plunge

The June 2026 CPI data showed a significant cooling of inflation to 3.5% year-over-year, driven by a 0.4% monthly decline in the CPI largely due to falling energy prices. This marked the largest monthly drop since April 2020 and shifted market expectations sharply lower for inflation exceeding 6%, 8%, and 10%.

June 2026 CPI report shows 0.4% monthly decline, annual inflation at 3.5%

Above 4.5% dips to 37%4%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.4% decrease in the CPI for June 2026, the largest monthly drop since April 2020, driven mainly by a decline in energy prices, signaling a potential easing of inflationary pressures.

BLS reports June 2026 CPI decline of 0.4% month-over-month, annual inflation falls to 3.5%

Above 5% plunges to 13%16%

The June 2026 CPI report showed a monthly decrease of 0.4% and a year-over-year inflation rate of 3.5%, below forecasts, signaling easing inflation and causing market prices for higher inflation outcomes to drop sharply.

BLS releases regional CPI data showing mixed inflation trends in June 2026

Regional CPI reports for June 2026 showed declines in energy prices and mixed changes in food and core inflation components across regions like Midwest, Northeast, and San Francisco, reflecting localized inflation dynamics amid overall cooling inflation nationally.

June 2026 CPI Inflation Falls to 3.5%, First Decline in Five Months

Above 6% drops to 4%7%

The BLS reported a 3.5% annual inflation rate in June 2026, down from 4.2% in May, driven by a sharp fall in energy prices. This cooling of inflation led to a sharp decline in market prices for inflation above 6%, 8%, and 10%.

BLS reports June 2026 CPI falls 0.4% monthly, annual inflation drops to 3.5%

The June 2026 CPI release showed a 0.4% monthly decline, the largest since April 2020, with annual inflation easing to 3.5%. The decrease was largely due to falling energy prices, including a 7.4% drop in gasoline prices, signaling a potential easing of inflationary pressures and influencing market expectations downward for higher inflation thresholds.

Federal Reserve's July 2026 Monetary Policy Report highlights inflation and economic growth outlook

Above 5% dips to 13%1%

The Federal Reserve's July 2026 report noted little change in inflation expectations early in the year, with market-based measures stable before rising due to Middle East conflict, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in inflation and policy paths.

June 2026 CPI inflation falls sharply to 3.5%, beating forecasts

Above 5% plunges to 14%19%

The June 2026 CPI report revealed a sharp decline in inflation to 3.5% year-over-year, below the expected 3.8%, driven by a steep drop in energy prices. This marked the largest monthly CPI decline since April 2020 and led to reduced market expectations for very high inflation.

Federal Reserve raises 2026 inflation outlook amid persistent price pressures

In mid-2026, the Federal Reserve updated its inflation forecast upward to around 3.6% for headline inflation, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures from energy and other sectors. This cautious stance influenced market expectations, keeping prices for higher inflation outcomes low but not zero.

BLS releases June 2026 CPI showing largest monthly decline since 2020

Above 6% plunges to 5%42%

The June 2026 CPI report showed a 0.4% monthly decline, the largest since April 2020, with annual inflation falling to 3.5%, driven by a sharp drop in energy prices, which eased inflation concerns and lowered market expectations for very high inflation.

June 2026 CPI data shows inflation easing to 3.5% as energy prices fall

Above 5% plunges to 13%24%

The June 2026 CPI report indicated a slowdown in inflation to 3.5% year-over-year, driven by declines in gasoline and energy prices. This easing provided some relief to markets and the Federal Reserve, suggesting that the energy shock's impact on inflation might be peaking.

US Inflation Rate Falls to 3.5% in June, First Decline in Five Months

Above 4.5% plunges to 24%16%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 3.5% year-over-year in June 2026, down from 4.2% in May, driven by falling energy prices and easing core inflation. This significant cooling of inflation led markets to sharply reduce probabilities of inflation exceeding higher thresholds.

June 2026 CPI release confirms inflation cooling trend with 3.5% annual rise

The July 14 release of June 2026 CPI data confirmed a cooling inflation trend with a 3.5% annual increase, reinforcing market views of moderating inflation and affecting the pricing of inflation market outcomes for the remainder of 2026.

July CPI report confirms inflation easing to 3.5% with flat core inflation

Above 4.5% jumps to 21%9%

The July 2026 CPI report, covering June data, confirmed inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year with core CPI flat at 2.6%, driven by a 0.4% monthly decline in headline CPI and a 9.7% plunge in gasoline prices, reducing immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike rates.

June 2026 CPI shows 0.4% monthly decline, annual inflation falls to 3.5%

Above 6% drops to 7%7%

The June 2026 CPI report revealed a 0.4% monthly decrease, the largest since April 2020, driven by a sharp drop in energy prices. Annual inflation fell to 3.5%, below expectations, causing market probabilities for high inflation outcomes to plummet.

June 2026 CPI falls to 3.5% YoY, below forecasts due to sharp energy price decline

Above 4.5% dips to 19%1%

The June CPI report showed a decline in inflation to 3.5% year-over-year, below the consensus forecast of 3.8%, driven by a significant monthly drop in energy prices. This cooling inflation print raised market expectations for potential Fed rate cuts later in 2026.

June 2026 CPI report shows inflation falls to 3.5%, largest monthly decline since 2020

Above 6% drops to 6%7%

The BLS reported a 0.4% monthly decline in CPI for June 2026, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 3.5%, driven by a sharp drop in energy prices. Core inflation also eased, signaling a cooling trend that led to a significant drop in market prices for higher inflation outcomes above 6%, 8%, and 10%.

US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports June 2026 CPI falls 0.4%, annual inflation slows to 3.5%

Above 4.5% rises to 22%2%

June 2026 CPI data showed a 0.4% monthly decline, the largest since April 2020, driven by a sharp drop in energy prices. Annual inflation slowed to 3.5%, signaling a cooling of inflationary pressures and providing relief to markets concerned about sustained high inflation.

Federal Reserve signals hawkish stance with raised inflation projections for 2026

In July 2026, the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh raised its inflation projections to 3.6% for 2026, reflecting concerns about persistent price pressures. This hawkish stance influenced market expectations for higher interest rates and contributed to inflation market volatility.

July 2026 CPI report scheduled amid easing inflation trend

The July 2026 CPI release was anticipated following the June report's indication of easing inflation, with markets expecting continued moderation in inflation pressures, reflected in low market prices for outcomes above 6%, 8%, and 10%.

June CPI shows inflation easing to 3.5% amid falling energy prices

Above 4.5% dips to 20%2%

June 2026 CPI data revealed a 0.4% monthly decline and a 3.5% annual inflation rate, the first pullback since January. The drop was largely due to a sharp fall in gasoline and energy prices, providing temporary relief and causing market inflation probabilities to decline sharply.

June 2026 CPI report shows inflation falls to 3.5%, largest monthly decline since April 2020

Above 5% drops to 14%5%

The BLS reported a 0.4% monthly decline in CPI in June 2026, driven by a 5.7% drop in energy prices, cooling inflation expectations and causing market prices for inflation above 5%, 6%, 8%, and 10% to fall sharply.

June 2026 CPI falls 0.4% monthly, annual inflation drops to 3.5%

Above 6% plunges to 6%15%

The BLS reported a 0.4% monthly decline in the CPI for June 2026, the largest since April 2020, driven by a 5.7% drop in energy prices including a 9.7% fall in gasoline. Annual inflation eased to 3.5%, below forecasts, signaling a cooling inflation trend and causing market probabilities for inflation above 6%, 8%, and 10% to drop sharply.

June 2026 CPI falls 0.4% monthly, annual inflation cools to 3.5% driven by energy price drop

Above 5% plunges to 14%17%

The June 2026 CPI report showed a 0.4% monthly decline, the largest since April 2020, with annual inflation easing to 3.5% due to a 5.7% drop in energy prices, signaling a potential easing of inflationary pressures and impacting market expectations downward.

Regional CPI reports confirm cooling inflation in June 2026

Above 5% plunges to 14%16%

Regional CPI data from Midwest, Northeast, San Francisco, and Anchorage areas showed declines or modest increases in June 2026, with energy prices falling and core inflation stable or slightly up. These regional reports reinforced the national trend of easing inflation, supporting market expectations for lower inflation outcomes.

June 2026 CPI projected to rise 3.8% year-over-year, signaling easing inflation

Above 4.5% dips to 19%1%

Projections for the June 2026 CPI indicated a 3.8% year-over-year increase, suggesting a moderation in inflation pressures. This outlook contributed to further declines in market expectations for inflation exceeding 4.5%, 5%, and higher thresholds.

BLS releases June 2026 CPI showing 0.4% monthly decline and 3.5% annual inflation

Above 4.5% jumps to 25%5%

The June 2026 CPI report revealed a 0.4% decrease month-over-month, the largest since April 2020, and a 3.5% year-over-year increase, indicating a moderation in inflation but still above the Fed's target, influencing market expectations for inflation trajectory.

US CPI inflation falls to 3.5% in June, first decline in five months

The June 2026 CPI report showed a decrease in annual inflation to 3.5%, marking the first decline after several months of rising prices. This easing was attributed to lower energy prices following a tentative ceasefire in the Middle East, providing some relief to inflationary pressures.

June 2026 CPI report confirms inflation at 3.5%, below forecasts

Above 4.5% rises to 21%3%

The official June 2026 CPI release confirmed inflation at 3.5% year-over-year, below the expected 3.8%, driven by a significant drop in energy prices, which led markets to lower expectations for inflation exceeding higher thresholds in 2026.

U.S. Consumer Price Index falls 0.4% in June 2026, largest monthly decrease since 2020

Above 4.5% drops to 24%13%

The CPI decreased 0.4% in June 2026, driven largely by a drop in energy prices, marking the largest monthly decline since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This significant easing in inflation contributed to a sharp reduction in market expectations for very high inflation outcomes in 2026.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testifies on inflation and geopolitical risks

Above 6% drops to 6%8%

In his first congressional testimony, Fed Chair Warsh emphasized the central bank's commitment to containing inflation amid ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting energy prices, influencing market expectations for inflation trajectory and policy response.

June 2026 CPI release confirms inflation at 3.5%, below forecasts

Above 4.5% dips to 15%4%

The July 14 release of June 2026 CPI data confirmed inflation cooling to 3.5% year-over-year, below market forecasts. The decline was driven by lower energy prices, though core inflation remained steady, influencing market expectations for future inflation and Fed policy.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh Testifies on Inflation and Geopolitical Risks

Above 4.5% plunges to 24%26%

Newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testified before Congress emphasizing the Fed's commitment to controlling inflation amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that impact energy prices. His hawkish stance and the cooling inflation data influenced market expectations for future monetary policy.

July 2026 CPI report shows inflation unchanged monthly, annual increase at 8.5%

The BLS reported that the CPI remained unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis in July 2026, with an annual increase of 8.5%, driven by a 7.7% drop in gasoline prices and rising food and shelter costs, indicating mixed inflation signals.

June 2026 CPI inflation falls to 3.5%, signaling easing inflation pressures

Above 4.5% drops to 6%7%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that annual inflation slowed to 3.5% in June 2026, the first decline in five months, driven by a significant drop in energy prices following a ceasefire between the US and Iran. This data suggested some cooling of inflation but still above the Fed's target.

June 2026 CPI shows 0.4% monthly decrease, annual inflation at 3.5%

Above 4.5% dips to 24%3%

The June 2026 CPI report indicated a 0.4% monthly decrease but an annual inflation rate of 3.5%, reflecting easing energy prices but persistent underlying inflation. This data reinforced market views that inflation would remain above 4.5% but below 6%.

BLS July 2026 CPI report shows inflation remains elevated at 8.5% annual increase

The July 2026 CPI report indicated inflation remained high at 8.5% year-over-year, driven by persistent shelter and food price increases despite some easing in energy costs, sustaining market concerns about inflation persistence.

Inflation cools in June amid falling energy prices, but risks remain

Above 4.5% dips to 19%3%

The New York Times reported that June's 3.5% annual inflation rate was a cool-down from May's 4.2%, largely due to tumbling oil prices. However, renewed hostilities with Iran could reignite inflation pressures, keeping market uncertainty about inflation's future trajectory.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey shows rising short- and medium-term inflation expectations

Above 4.5% drops to 6%7%

The New York Fed's June 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that households' inflation expectations increased at short- and medium-term horizons, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation despite recent easing in headline CPI. This influenced market sentiment on inflation persistence.

BLS reports June 2026 inflation falls to 3.5%, below forecasts

June 2026 CPI data showed a decline in annual inflation to 3.5%, the first drop in five months, driven by a sharp fall in energy prices following a ceasefire between the US and Iran. This eased inflation concerns and reduced market expectations for very high inflation outcomes.

June 2026 inflation rate confirmed at 3.5%, core inflation eases

Data confirmed annual inflation at 3.5% for June 2026 with core inflation falling to 2.6%, reflecting easing shelter and other costs, suggesting inflation pressures may be moderating but still above target.

BLS releases detailed June 2026 CPI report confirming inflation cooling

Above 4.5% rises to 21%1%

The detailed June 2026 CPI report confirmed a 3.5% year-over-year inflation rate with energy prices falling sharply and core inflation stable, reinforcing expectations of a moderation in inflation and influencing market pricing.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizes commitment to price stability

In congressional testimony, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the Federal Reserve's commitment to bringing inflation down, signaling continued vigilance on inflation risks despite recent easing. This reinforced market expectations of a 'higher for longer' interest rate environment.

June 2026 CPI shows inflation easing to 3.5% as energy prices fall

Above 4.5% drops to 24%6%

June 2026 CPI data revealed a decline in the annual inflation rate to 3.5%, the first slowdown in five months, driven by a sharp drop in energy and gasoline prices. This provided temporary relief to inflation concerns but uncertainty remained due to geopolitical risks.

July 2026 CPI data release scheduled amid ongoing inflation monitoring

The July 2026 CPI report was scheduled for release on August 12, 2026, continuing the monthly tracking of inflation trends. Market participants awaited this data to assess whether the easing trend seen in June would persist, influencing inflation expectations and market pricing.

June 2026 CPI inflation cools to 3.5% as energy prices plunge

The BLS reported a 0.4% monthly decline in CPI for June 2026, the largest since April 2020, driven by falling gasoline and energy costs. Annual inflation slowed to 3.5%, signaling a potential easing of inflation pressures after months of energy-driven spikes.

Federal Reserve minutes reveal AI-driven inflation concerns and rate hike debate

The June 16-17 Federal Reserve meeting minutes released on July 9, 2026, highlighted internal divisions over interest rate paths amid concerns about inflation driven by AI infrastructure spending and geopolitical tensions. This uncertainty influenced market expectations for inflation and monetary policy.

Federal Reserve releases June 16-17 meeting minutes showing split on rate hikes

Above 4.5% drops to 24%14%

The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes revealed a divided committee on the direction of interest rates amid inflation concerns, reflecting uncertainty in monetary policy that influenced inflation market expectations.

IMF projects gradual disinflation with inflation reaching 2.5% by end of 2026

Above 4.5% dips to 21%3%

The IMF's July 2026 World Economic Outlook update projected that disinflation would proceed gradually, with inflation expected to reach 2.5% by the end of 2026. This forecast contributed to market expectations of inflation moderating, reflected in declining probabilities for inflation exceeding higher thresholds.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady, signals possible hikes amid inflation

The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June 2026 but removed prior indications of rate cuts, reflecting concerns about inflation persistence and geopolitical risks. This stance influenced market expectations, lowering probabilities for inflation exceeding 6% or higher.

New York Fed survey shows rising short-term inflation expectations in June

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's June 2026 survey indicated an increase in short- and medium-term inflation expectations among households, reflecting concerns about persistent inflation despite some easing in headline rates.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey shows rising short- and medium-term inflation expectations

Above 4.5% rises to 24%4%

The June 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations reported increased inflation expectations at one- and three-year horizons, reflecting persistent inflation concerns and influencing market pricing for inflation above 4.5%.

June 2026 CPI report shows inflation falls sharply to 3.5% year-over-year

Above 5% plunges to 16%15%

The BLS released June 2026 CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly decline and a 3.5% year-over-year increase, indicating a significant cooling of inflation pressures, especially due to falling energy prices, which led to market reassessment of inflation risks.

June 2026 CPI inflation falls 0.4% monthly, annual rate drops to 3.5%

Above 6% drops to 6%7%

June CPI data showed a 0.4% monthly decline and a decrease in annual inflation to 3.5%, driven by a sharp drop in energy prices following a ceasefire between the US and Iran, providing temporary relief to inflation pressures.

BLS reports June 2026 CPI falls 0.4% monthly, annual inflation cools to 3.5%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.4% monthly decline in CPI for June 2026, the largest since April 2020, leading to a decrease in annual inflation to 3.5%, driven by falling energy prices and easing inflation pressures.

Economists expect Federal Reserve to hold rates through 2026 amid persistent inflation

Above 6% dips to 4%2%

A Reuters poll of economists in late June 2026 showed a strong consensus that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates steady through the year due to persistent inflation driven by energy shocks. This expectation tempered market optimism for inflation falling below higher thresholds within 2026.

Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge surges above 4% in June 2026

Above 4.5% dips to 19%1%

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, rose to 4.1% annual rate in June 2026, the highest since April 2023. This confirmed ongoing inflationary pressures despite cautious Fed policy, reinforcing market expectations that inflation would remain above 4.5% but unlikely to exceed higher thresholds like 6% or 8%.

PCE Inflation Hits Three-Year High of 4.1% but Truce with Iran Lowers Oil Prices

The Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauge rose to 4.1% in May, but the announcement of a preliminary peace deal and truce with Iran caused oil prices to drop, easing long-term inflation fears.

Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge hits three-year high in May

Above 6% drops to 8%6%

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure rose to a new three-year high in May 2026, driven by peak gas prices amid the Iran conflict. This data heightened concerns about persistent inflation, influencing market expectations and price declines for higher inflation thresholds.

May 2026 PCE inflation report shows 4.1% annual increase, highest since April 2023

Above 4.5% dips to 60%4%

The Commerce Department's PCE report confirmed persistent inflation with a 4.1% annual rise, supporting the Fed's cautious stance and market expectations for inflation above 4.5%.

PCE Inflation Hits 4.1% in May, Reflecting Broad Energy Price Pressures

The Commerce Department reported that the PCE price index ran at a 4.1% annual rate in May, confirming persistent inflation pressures stemming from the conflict in Iran.

Bank of America predicts Fed rate hikes starting September to combat sticky inflation

Above 6% plunges to 10%37%

Analysts at Bank of America forecast that the Federal Reserve would begin raising rates in September 2026, reversing prior cuts, due to persistent inflation pressures and supply shocks. This outlook contributed to market reassessment of inflation risks and lowered probabilities for very high inflation outcomes.

Fed's favorite inflation gauge expected to show acceleration in May 2026

Bloomberg reported expectations that the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index, would show acceleration in May 2026, supporting the case for continued interest rate hikes and sustained inflation concerns.

Federal Reserve Unanimously Votes to Keep Interest Rates Unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%

The FOMC voted 12-0 to maintain the federal funds rate, citing elevated inflation from energy supply shocks but noting solid economic expansion.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation concerns

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% in June 2026, signaling a cautious stance as inflation remained above target and economic uncertainty persisted.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid elevated inflation concerns

The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75%, citing solid economic activity but persistent inflation pressures, especially from energy prices. The Fed's cautious stance reflected uncertainty about inflation's trajectory.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid inflation and Middle East uncertainty

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, citing solid economic activity but elevated inflation partly due to supply shocks including energy prices from the Middle East conflict, signaling ongoing caution in monetary policy.

Fed holds rates steady amid persistent inflation and economic uncertainty

Above 4.5% drops to 19%11%

At the June FOMC meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged, signaling caution as inflation remained above target and geopolitical risks persisted. Market pricing shifted to expect possible rate hikes if inflation stayed elevated.

Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady amid high inflation

At the June 17, 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.5% to 3.75%, acknowledging persistent inflation at 4.2% but signaling possible future hikes. This cautious stance contributed to market reassessment of inflation risk and expectations for future monetary policy.

Federal Reserve signals end to rate cuts, plans rate hikes amid sticky inflation

Above 8% plunges to 2%36%

In June 2026, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh indicated the Fed's patience with inflation was ending, forecasting rate hikes starting in September to combat persistent inflation fueled by supply shocks and energy prices, impacting market inflation expectations downward for very high inflation outcomes.

Federal Reserve projects inflation above 4% by end of 2026

The Federal Reserve's FOMC projections in June 2026 indicated inflation likely to remain above 4% by the end of 2026, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures and influencing market expectations for inflation outcomes.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5-3.75% amid elevated inflation and economic uncertainty

Above 5% plunges to 14%17%

The FOMC meeting on June 17, 2026, resulted in maintaining the federal funds rate target range, acknowledging persistent inflation above target and economic risks from the Middle East conflict. This decision influenced market inflation expectations downward as the Fed signaled caution.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation concerns

The Federal Reserve maintained its target federal funds rate in June 2026, signaling a cautious stance as inflation remained elevated, impacting market expectations for future rate hikes or cuts.

Federal Reserve maintains federal funds rate amid elevated inflation and economic uncertainty

Above 5% plunges to 14%17%

The FOMC decided to keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% in June 2026, citing solid economic activity but persistent inflation pressures, especially from supply shocks including energy prices, influencing market inflation expectations.

Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in June Meeting

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in June 2026, signaling a cautious stance amid elevated inflation and economic uncertainty, influencing market expectations for future monetary policy.

Federal Reserve projects inflation slightly higher and maintains cautious policy stance

Above 4.5% dips to 19%1%

At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve projected slightly higher inflation for 2026 and maintained a cautious approach to monetary policy amid ongoing inflation and economic uncertainties. This reinforced market views that inflation would remain above target, limiting expectations for significant rate cuts or inflation declines in 2026.

Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation concerns

Above 4.5% dips to 20%4%

The Federal Reserve held rates steady in June 2026, signaling a cautious approach as inflation remained elevated at 4.2%. The decision reflected concerns about inflation persistence and uncertainty from geopolitical events, impacting market inflation expectations.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid inflation concerns

On June 17, 2026, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling a cautious approach despite rising inflation. The decision reflected the Fed's balancing act between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid elevated inflation concerns

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% in June 2026, citing persistent inflation above the 2% target and solid economic activity despite uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, signaling cautious policy stance.

Economists expect Fed to hold rates through 2026 amid persistent inflation

Above 6% dips to 4%3%

A Reuters poll in June 2026 showed most economists expected the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates throughout the year due to persistent inflation linked to energy shocks, reducing expectations for near-term rate cuts and influencing inflation market pricing.

Federal Reserve signals patience on interest rates amid inflation uncertainty

Above 5% drops to 14%12%

Following the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve indicated a cautious stance on monetary policy, maintaining rates steady and emphasizing data dependency due to inflation uncertainty. This reinforced market expectations that inflation would moderate but remain above target, influencing prices for inflation thresholds above 4.5% and 5%.

Federal Reserve maintains rates amid elevated inflation concerns

Above 4.5% drops to 59%5%

At its June 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling a 'higher-for-longer' approach due to persistent inflation risks. This stance reinforced market expectations that inflation would remain above target for an extended period, influencing inflation market pricing.

June 2026 CPI falls 0.4% monthly, annual inflation cools to 3.5%

Above 4.5% rises to 21%1%

BLS reported a 0.4% monthly decline in CPI for June 2026, driven by falling energy prices, leading to a decrease in annual inflation to 3.5%, marking the first slowdown in five months and easing some inflation concerns.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid elevated inflation

At the June 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, reflecting caution as inflation remained above target but showed signs of moderating, affecting market sentiment on inflation outcomes.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid elevated inflation

In its March 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, reflecting ongoing concerns about elevated inflation and economic uncertainty, which affected market perceptions of inflation trajectory and rate policy.

BLS reports June 2026 CPI decrease of 0.4% month-over-month, annual inflation at 3.5%

Above 8% dips to 4%3%

The June 2026 CPI report showed a 0.4% monthly decrease, the largest since April 2020, with annual inflation at 3.5%. This marked a significant easing of inflation pressures, leading to sharp declines in market prices for inflation exceeding higher thresholds.

June 2026 CPI report shows inflation cooling to 3.5% as energy prices fall

Above 6% drops to 6%7%

The BLS June 2026 CPI release revealed a 0.4% monthly decline, the largest since April 2020, with annual inflation falling to 3.5% due to a sharp drop in energy prices following a ceasefire between the US and Iran, easing inflation concerns and lowering market inflation probabilities.

US inflation rate falls to 3.5% in June 2026, first decline in five months

Above 4.5% rises to 24%4%

The BLS reported a decline in the annual inflation rate to 3.5% in June 2026, driven by a sharp drop in energy prices, marking the first slowdown since January and suggesting easing inflation pressures.

June 2026 CPI report shows inflation cooling to 3.5%

Above 4.5% plunges to 21%29%

The June 2026 CPI report revealed a sharp decline in inflation to 3.5% year-over-year, driven by a 5.7% monthly drop in energy prices, signaling a potential peak in inflation and causing market prices for high inflation outcomes to collapse.

June 2026 CPI falls 0.4% monthly, annual inflation drops to 3.5%

Above 4.5% plunges to 21%45%

The June 2026 CPI report showed the largest monthly decline since April 2020, with a 0.4% decrease driven by a 5.7% drop in energy prices, lowering the annual inflation rate to 3.5%, below forecasts and causing market prices for high inflation outcomes to plummet.

BLS reports June 2026 CPI falls 0.4% monthly, annual inflation at 3.5% driven by energy price drop

Above 6% dips to 4%4%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released June 2026 CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly decline, the largest since April 2020, primarily due to a 5.7% drop in energy prices. Annual inflation slowed to 3.5%, below forecasts, easing inflation concerns amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This contributed to a further decline in market expectations for inflation exceeding higher thresholds.

Trump Declares 'I Love Inflation' Amid Rising Consumer Prices

US President Donald Trump publicly downplayed inflation concerns despite a surge to 4.2% in May 2026, adding political uncertainty and highlighting the challenge of managing inflation expectations during a volatile period.

US Producer Price Index surges 6.5% in May, highest since 2022

Above 6% dips to 16%2%

The Producer Price Index rose 6.5% year-over-year in May 2026, driven by a 23.4% monthly spike in gasoline prices and broad goods inflation. This wholesale inflation surge signaled continued inflationary pressures ahead, reinforcing expectations of sustained Federal Reserve tightening.

June 2026 CPI falls 0.4% monthly, annual inflation cools to 3.5%

Above 4.5% plunges to 39%17%

June CPI data showed the largest monthly decline since April 2020, driven by a 5.7% drop in energy prices, causing annual inflation to fall sharply to 3.5%.

BLS scheduled to release June 2026 CPI report on July 14, 2026

The market awaited the June 2026 CPI report scheduled for release on July 14, 2026. Anticipation of this data influenced market prices, with probabilities for inflation above 4.5% stabilizing around 20%, reflecting uncertainty about near-term inflation trends.

June 2026 CPI report shows inflation falls to 3.5% as energy prices decline

Above 4.5% drops to 24%13%

The June 2026 CPI report showed a decrease in inflation to 3.5% year-over-year, with a 0.4% monthly decline driven by falling energy prices, including a 10% drop in gasoline costs. This marked the first pullback in annual inflation since January, easing some market concerns.

June 2026 CPI shows inflation cooling to 3.5% with largest monthly drop since 2020

Above 4.5% dips to 15%4%

The June 2026 CPI report indicated a significant cooling of inflation to 3.5% year-over-year, driven by a 0.4% monthly decline largely due to falling energy prices. This marked the first decline in inflation in several months, impacting market inflation expectations.

June 2026 CPI falls 0.4% month-over-month, annual inflation cools to 3.5%

Above 4.5% plunges to 24%26%

The June 2026 CPI report showed a monthly decline of 0.4%, the largest since April 2020, with annual inflation easing to 3.5%. The drop was mainly due to falling energy prices, signaling a potential peak in inflation and moderating market expectations for very high inflation outcomes.

BLS June CPI inflation falls 0.4% monthly but annual rate remains elevated at 3.5%

Above 4.5% plunges to 40%24%

June 2026 CPI data showed a monthly decrease of 0.4%, yet the annual inflation rate stayed elevated at 3.5%, indicating persistent inflation pressures despite some easing in energy prices.

US Consumer Price Index Rises 0.5% in May 2026, Inflation Peaks at 4.2% Annual Rate

Above 6% drops to 10%6%

May 2026 CPI data showed a 0.5% monthly increase and a 4.2% year-over-year inflation rate, the highest since April 2023, driven by energy prices amid the Iran war, intensifying inflation concerns and limiting expectations for Fed rate cuts.

U.S. Consumer Price Index rises 0.5% in May 2026, inflation remains elevated

Above 5% drops to 20%9%

The CPI increased 0.5% in May 2026, slightly lower than April's increase but still indicating persistent inflation. This data contributed to a gradual decline in market inflation probabilities as inflation showed signs of moderating.

May 2026 CPI inflation hits 4.2%, highest since April 2023, driven by gasoline prices

Above 6% drops to 14%14%

May CPI inflation rose to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest in over three years, largely due to a 40% spike in gasoline prices, intensifying inflation concerns and influencing market pricing for inflation thresholds.

June 2026 CPI report shows inflation falls to 3.5%, below forecasts

Above 6% drops to 6%13%

The BLS released the June 2026 CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly decline and a 3.5% year-over-year increase, below the consensus estimate of 3.8%. This indicated cooling inflation momentum, leading to a sharp decline in market probabilities for very high inflation outcomes.

BLS reports May 2026 CPI increase of 0.5% month-over-month, annual inflation at 4.2%

The BLS released May CPI data showing a 0.5% monthly increase and 4.2% annual inflation, confirming persistent inflation pressures despite some moderation in core components, sustaining market concerns about inflation exceeding thresholds.

US CPI inflation surges to 4.2% in May, highest in three years

Above 4.5% jumps to 30%11%

The May 2026 CPI report revealed a sharp rise in inflation to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest since April 2023, driven almost entirely by an energy price shock linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict. This spike complicated the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.

May 2026 CPI inflation report confirms 4.2% annual rise, core CPI steady

Above 5% rises to 34%2%

The May CPI report confirmed a 4.2% annual inflation rate with core CPI rising 2.9%, indicating persistent but moderate inflation pressures. This data release contributed to a decline in market probabilities for inflation exceeding higher thresholds, reflecting stabilization.

May 2026 CPI shows inflation acceleration to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy cost surge

Above 4.5% dips to 61%1%

The May 2026 CPI report indicated inflation rose to 4.2% year-over-year, with energy costs accounting for over 60% of the increase, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures and raising concerns about persistent high inflation.

June 2026 CPI data shows inflation cooling to 3.5% as energy prices fall

The June 2026 CPI report indicated a decline in the annual inflation rate to 3.5%, the first drop in five months, driven by a significant fall in energy prices. This cooling effect led to reduced market probabilities for very high inflation outcomes.

May 2026 CPI inflation rises 0.5% monthly, driven by energy costs

Above 5% jumps to 31%13%

The BLS released May 2026 CPI data showing a 0.5% monthly increase and a 4.2% year-over-year inflation rate, with energy prices accounting for over 60% of the increase. Gasoline prices rose 7% monthly and 40.5% annually, sustaining inflation concerns and influencing market probabilities for inflation above 5% and 6%.

May 2026 CPI report confirms inflation at 4.2% year-over-year

Above 5% drops to 14%5%

The BLS reported a 4.2% year-over-year increase in CPI for May 2026, the highest since April 2023, largely due to energy price increases. This data influenced market expectations, keeping probabilities for inflation above 4.5% and 5% moderate but pushing down chances for inflation above 6% and higher.

BLS releases May 2026 CPI showing inflation acceleration to 4.2% annual rate

Above 6% plunges to 5%42%

The May 2026 CPI report showed inflation rising to 4.2% year-over-year, driven largely by energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, reinforcing concerns about sticky inflation and impacting market inflation expectations.

BLS reports June 2026 CPI inflation slows with 0.4% decrease month-over-month

Above 4.5% drops to 24%9%

June 2026 CPI data showed a 0.4% monthly decrease, the largest since April 2020, leading to a 3.5% annual inflation rate. This cooling in inflation contributed to market price declines for higher inflation outcomes, reflecting expectations that inflation would not spike further in 2026.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid elevated inflation concerns

Above 6% plunges to 14%33%

The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75%, citing elevated inflation partly due to supply shocks including energy prices. The Fed's statement and projections raised inflation outlook for 2026 to 3.6%, signaling persistent inflation risks and influencing market expectations downward for higher inflation thresholds.

US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports May 2026 CPI at 4.2%, highest since April 2023

Above 4.5% jumps to 37%6%

The May 2026 CPI report showed a 4.2% year-over-year increase, driven largely by a 23.5% surge in energy prices due to the Iran conflict. This marked the highest inflation reading in three years, raising concerns about persistent inflationary pressures and influencing market expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

May 2026 US CPI inflation surges to 4.2% driven by energy price spike

Above 4.5% surges to 38%19%

The May 2026 CPI report revealed a sharp increase in inflation to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest in three years, primarily driven by a 40% spike in gasoline prices due to Middle East tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about sustained inflation pressures.

May 2026 CPI jumps to 4.2% YoY, highest in three years amid Iran war energy shock

Above 4.5% surges to 62%31%

The May CPI report showed inflation rising to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest since April 2023, driven by a 40.5% increase in gasoline prices and ongoing energy supply disruptions from the Iran conflict. This spike heightened inflation concerns and market uncertainty about Fed policy.

BLS applies revised seasonal factors for 2026 CPI data

Above 4.5% plunges to 20%15%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics updated seasonal adjustment factors for 2026 CPI data, affecting reported monthly inflation rates and contributing to market reassessment of inflation trends.

Regional CPI reports in May 2026 show energy-driven inflation increases

Above 4.5% plunges to 20%15%

Regional CPI data for May 2026 from the South, Northeast, and Midwest regions showed monthly increases driven largely by energy prices, reinforcing the national inflation trend and supporting market expectations for inflation above 4.5%.

U.S. Inflation Jumps to 4.2% in May as Iran War Fuels Energy Shock

Above 4.5% drops to 36%13%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that annual inflation reached a three-year high of 4.2% in May, driven by a massive 23.5% annual surge in energy costs.

BLS reports June 2026 CPI falls 0.4% month-over-month, annual inflation at 3.5%

Above 6% drops to 6%7%

The June 2026 CPI report showed a significant monthly decline and a year-over-year inflation rate of 3.5%, below forecasts, reflecting cooling energy prices and easing inflation pressures, which influenced market expectations for inflation thresholds in 2026.

Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady at 3.5% to 3.75% in April and April Meeting

The Fed maintained rates steady amid persistent inflation and rising energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions. This cautious approach kept inflation expectations anchored but signaled no immediate easing, influencing market inflation probabilities downward.

Producer Price Index shows wholesale inflation pressures rising in May 2026

Above 6% drops to 5%8%

The Producer Price Index increased 1.1% in May, with a 12-month rate of 6.5%, indicating rising wholesale inflation pressures that could feed into consumer prices and influence inflation expectations.

May 2026 CPI inflation hits 4.2%, highest in three years due to energy prices

Above 5% jumps to 34%6%

The May 2026 CPI report showed headline inflation surged to 4.2% year-over-year, driven primarily by a 40% spike in gasoline prices caused by the Middle East conflict, marking the highest inflation rate since April 2023 and raising concerns about persistent inflation pressures.

May 2026 CPI report shows inflation surge to 4.2% driven by energy price shock

The May 2026 CPI report revealed a sharp increase in inflation to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest in three years, primarily due to a 40% spike in gasoline prices linked to Middle East geopolitical tensions. This energy-driven inflation spike challenged expectations of a smooth return to target inflation and influenced market expectations for prolonged restrictive Fed policy.

BLS reports US inflation rises to 4.2% in May 2026, highest since April 2023

Above 4.5% plunges to 19%31%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released CPI data showing inflation rose to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, driven largely by a 23.5% increase in energy prices amid the Iran war. This data confirmed persistent inflation above 4.5%, causing market prices for inflation outcomes above 4.5% and 5% to decline as the peak appeared near but inflation remained elevated.

June 2026 CPI report release scheduled for July 14, 2026

The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the upcoming release of the June 2026 CPI report on July 14, 2026. Market participants awaited this data to update inflation expectations for the remainder of 2026, influencing prices for all inflation thresholds.

May 2026 CPI rises 4.2%, highest annual inflation since April 2023

Above 6% dips to 14%3%

The Consumer Price Index increased to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, reflecting continued inflationary pressures from energy and tariffs, despite some moderation in core goods. This reinforced expectations that inflation would remain elevated through mid-2026.

June 2026 CPI rises 0.5% monthly, inflation peaks before easing

The June 2026 CPI report showed a 0.5% monthly increase and a 3.8% annual inflation rate in May, marking a peak in inflation largely due to energy prices. This data set the stage for the July report, influencing market expectations of inflation trends and Federal Reserve actions.

June 2026 CPI market reprices higher inflation odds amid energy price concerns

Above 4.5% surges to 61%41%

On June 10, 2026, markets saw a sharp rise in odds for a 0.5% monthly inflation print in June, reflecting concerns about energy price increases and Federal Reserve policy signals. This repricing indicated trader positioning for a hotter inflation print, temporarily increasing probabilities for higher inflation outcomes.

BLS June 2026 CPI confirms inflation at 3.5% year-over-year, easing from May peak

Above 6% drops to 5%9%

The June 2026 CPI report showed inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year, indicating a moderation after the May spike. This contributed to market price declines for inflation above 6%, 8%, and 10% thresholds, reflecting reduced likelihood of extreme inflation.

May 2026 CPI report shows inflation at 4.2% annually, driven by energy costs

Above 4.5% plunges to 41%21%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 4.2% annual inflation rate in May 2026, the highest since April 2023, largely due to a 23.5% increase in energy prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, reinforcing inflation concerns.

May 2026 CPI inflation climbs to 4.2%, highest since April 2023

Inflation rose to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, driven by surging energy prices amid the Iran conflict and rising shelter and food costs. This increase heightened concerns about inflation persistence and influenced Federal Reserve policy expectations.

Rising inflation squeezes US employee earnings in May 2026

BLS data showed real average hourly earnings decreased due to a 0.5% increase in CPI-U in May 2026, highlighting how inflation pressures eroded wage gains and strained household budgets amid rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions.

US Inflation Accelerates to 4.2% in May as Energy Costs Jump 23.5%

Above 4.5% drops to 41%13%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that annual CPI inflation rose to 4.2% in May, driven by a massive 23.5% year-over-year surge in energy costs due to the conflict with Iran.

BLS reports May 2026 inflation surges to 4.2%, highest in three years

May 2026 CPI data showed inflation rising to 4.2% year-over-year, driven largely by energy prices amid the Iran conflict. This spike raised economic and political concerns, influencing market expectations for sustained inflation above 4.5%.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid persistent inflation and economic uncertainty

Above 4.5% dips to 13%1%

Ahead of the June FOMC meeting, economists widely expected the Fed to maintain current interest rates due to ongoing inflation pressures linked to energy shocks and geopolitical risks. This consensus reflected the difficulty in balancing inflation control with economic growth.

Federal Reserve officials signal possible rate hikes amid sticky inflation

Above 5% jumps to 36%6%

Following the May CPI report, Federal Reserve officials, including new Chair Kevin Warsh, indicated a hawkish stance with the possibility of interest rate increases to combat persistent inflation, especially given the energy-driven price pressures. This stance influenced market expectations away from rate cuts.

BLS reports May 2026 CPI inflation at 4.2%, highest since April 2023, driven by energy prices

Above 8% plunges to 3%35%

The May 2026 CPI report showed inflation rising to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest in over three years, largely due to a 23.5% increase in energy prices amid the Iran conflict. This data raised concerns about persistent inflation pressures, influencing market expectations for inflation to remain elevated through 2026.

June 2026 CPI report scheduled for July 14, market awaits new inflation data

Ahead of the June 2026 CPI release scheduled for July 14, markets showed declining confidence in very high inflation outcomes, reflecting anticipation of moderating inflation. The absence of new data during this period contributed to a gradual decline in prices for all inflation thresholds above 4.5%.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid elevated inflation concerns

Above 6% drops to 7%7%

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% in June 2026, citing persistent inflation pressures partly due to supply shocks including energy prices. This decision reflected the Fed's cautious stance amid ongoing elevated inflation and economic uncertainty.

BLS releases June 2026 CPI showing inflation easing to 3.5% annual increase

Above 5% plunges to 16%20%

The June 2026 CPI report showed a decline in inflation to 3.5% year-over-year, reflecting a cooling trend as energy prices began to stabilize, which contributed to a significant drop in market inflation expectations.

May 2026 CPI report confirms inflation at 4.2%, with energy prices surging

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index increased 0.5% in May 2026, with a 4.2% annual inflation rate. Energy prices, including gasoline, rose significantly, contributing to inflation persistence. This report influenced market expectations, causing volatility and a brief rise in probabilities for inflation above 4.5%, before a subsequent decline.

May 2026 CPI data confirms persistent inflation with 0.5% monthly increase

Above 6% plunges to 10%37%

The May 2026 CPI monthly increase of 0.5% confirmed ongoing inflationary pressures, particularly in energy and shelter costs, reinforcing market concerns about sustained inflation above Federal Reserve targets.

May 2026 CPI shows 0.5% monthly increase, inflation remains high

The May 2026 CPI report indicated a 0.5% monthly rise and a 4.2% annual increase, driven largely by surging energy costs amid geopolitical tensions, sustaining market concerns about persistent inflation.

May 2026 CPI report confirms 4.2% inflation with energy costs driving surge

Above 6% plunges to 5%42%

The May CPI report confirmed a 4.2% year-over-year inflation rate, driven by a 40% spike in gasoline prices and energy costs, reinforcing concerns about inflation persistence and complicating Federal Reserve policy decisions.

May 2026 CPI inflation surges to 4.2% driven by energy prices amid Iran conflict

Above 8% jumps to 36%5%

The May CPI report showed a 4.2% annual inflation rate, the highest in over three years, largely due to a 23.5% increase in energy prices linked to the ongoing Iran conflict, intensifying inflation fears and impacting market expectations.

May 2026 CPI surges to 4.2%, highest in three years, driven by energy prices

Above 4.5% plunges to 23%36%

The May 2026 CPI report showed inflation rising to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest since April 2023, largely due to a 7% monthly increase in gasoline prices and energy costs accounting for over 60% of the CPI increase. This caused a sharp spike in market inflation probabilities, especially for the above 4.5% outcome, before a rapid decline as June data approached.

May CPI Inflation Hits Three-Year High of 4.2% Amid Iran War Energy Shock

Above 4.5% plunges to 39%20%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annualized CPI inflation rate for May 2026 rose to 4.2%, driven by a spike in energy prices from the ongoing conflict in Iran.

May 2026 CPI shows inflation at 4.2% with energy costs surging

Above 5% drops to 29%10%

The May 2026 CPI report revealed inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year, driven by a sharp rise in energy prices which accounted for over 60% of the increase, reinforcing concerns about persistent inflation.

June 2026 CPI cools to 3.5% as energy prices plunge

Above 6% drops to 6%5%

The June 2026 CPI report showed inflation cooling to 3.5% year-over-year, with a 0.4% monthly decline driven by falling energy prices. This reduction in inflation led to a sharp drop in market prices for inflation exceeding higher thresholds (above 6%, 8%, 10%).

June 2026 CPI report scheduled for July 14, market awaits new data

Above 4.5% drops to 20%5%

The market awaited the June 2026 CPI report scheduled for release on July 14, 2026, with prices for inflation above 4.5% and 5% continuing to decline as anticipation grew that inflation would remain moderate or decline further.

May 2026 CPI report highlights energy prices driving inflation surge

Above 4.5% rises to 66%2%

The BLS noted that energy prices accounted for over 60% of the CPI increase in May, with gasoline prices up 40.5% year-over-year, underscoring the impact of the Iran war on inflation.

May 2026 CPI rises 0.5%, annual inflation hits 4.2%, highest since 2023

Above 4.5% rises to 66%2%

May CPI data showed inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest in over three years, largely due to surging energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, intensifying inflation concerns.

May 2026 CPI regional reports highlight energy price increases

Above 5% plunges to 14%17%

Regional CPI reports for May 2026 showed energy price increases of over 20% year-over-year in some areas, contributing to the overall CPI rise. These details helped explain persistent inflation in energy costs, influencing market pricing for inflation above moderate levels.

May 2026 CPI inflation rises 0.5% monthly, driven by energy prices

Above 4.5% drops to 30%9%

The BLS reported a 0.5% monthly CPI increase in May 2026, with energy prices accounting for over 60% of the rise. This confirmed persistent inflation pressures and supported market expectations of inflation above 4.5%.

US inflation climbs above 4% in May driven by rising energy costs

Above 8% dips to 6%2%

In May 2026, US inflation rose to 4.2%, the highest in three years, largely due to surging energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, which heightened inflation concerns and market volatility.

Regional CPI reports for May 2026 show varied inflation with energy prices driving increases

Above 5% drops to 18%12%

Regional CPI reports for May 2026, including Northeast and Midwest, showed monthly increases driven largely by energy prices, such as gasoline rising over 40% year-over-year in some areas. These regional details supported the national inflation data and influenced market pricing for inflation outcomes.

May 2026 CPI inflation surges to 4.2%, highest in three years

Above 6% jumps to 33%10%

The May 2026 CPI report showed inflation climbing to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest since April 2023, largely due to elevated energy prices amid the Iran war. This spike intensified concerns about persistent inflation and influenced market pricing for higher inflation outcomes.

BLS May 2026 CPI report shows energy prices up 23.5% year-over-year

Above 6% drops to 3%11%

The May 2026 CPI report highlighted a 23.5% increase in energy prices over the past year, driven by gasoline and electricity price rises. This contributed to the overall 4.2% annual inflation figure and influenced market expectations for inflation outcomes.

May 2026 CPI rises 0.5%, inflation peaks at 4.2% annually

Above 6% rises to 13%3%

The May 2026 CPI report showed a 0.5% monthly increase and a 4.2% year-over-year inflation rate, the highest since April 2023, largely driven by surging energy costs amid geopolitical tensions, fueling market concerns about sustained inflation.

BLS releases May 2026 CPI report showing 0.5% monthly increase and 4.2% annual inflation

Above 4.5% plunges to 20%56%

The May 2026 CPI report indicated a 0.5% monthly increase and a 4.2% rise over the past 12 months, the largest 12-month increase since April 2023 but still moderate. Energy prices notably contributed to the increase. This report led to a sharp decline in market prices for inflation exceeding higher thresholds, reflecting tempered inflation expectations.

BLS reports May 2026 CPI rises 4.2% year-over-year, highest since April 2023

Above 4.5% rises to 21%1%

The May 2026 CPI report showed inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year, driven mainly by a 7% monthly increase in gasoline prices and energy costs accounting for over 60% of the CPI rise. This marked a significant inflation surge, raising concerns about persistent price pressures and impacting market expectations for inflation exceeding 4.5%.

US inflation rate rises to 4.2% in May 2026 amid energy shock from Iran conflict

Trading Economics reported the US annual inflation rate rose to 4.2% in May 2026, the highest since April 2023, driven by higher gasoline prices following the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict, reinforcing market inflation concerns.

May 2026 CPI inflation hits 4.2%, highest since April 2023

The BLS released May CPI data showing inflation rose to 4.2% year-over-year, driven by a 23.5% increase in energy prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Core CPI also ticked up, reinforcing concerns about persistent inflation and influencing Federal Reserve policy deliberations.

May CPI report shows inflation remains elevated at 4.2% annual rate

Above 5% dips to 30%3%

The BLS reported a 0.5% monthly increase in CPI for May 2026, with a 4.2% year-over-year rise, driven mainly by energy prices. This confirmed persistent inflation pressures, keeping market inflation probabilities elevated before the June data release.

May 2026 energy prices surge, pushing overall CPI higher

Above 6% drops to 3%11%

Energy prices increased significantly in May 2026, with gasoline prices up 7% monthly and 40.5% year-over-year, contributing over 60% of the overall CPI increase. Despite this, the overall inflation rate remained below extreme levels, influencing market expectations downward for very high inflation outcomes.

US CPI inflation hits 4.2% annually in May 2026 amid energy price surge

May 2026 CPI report showed inflation rising to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest in three years, largely due to a 23.5% increase in energy prices linked to the Iran conflict. This data confirmed persistent inflation pressures and influenced market pricing and Federal Reserve policy outlook.

May 2026 CPI report shows inflation at 4.2%, highest since April 2023

Above 5% jumps to 38%10%

The May 2026 CPI report confirmed a 4.2% year-over-year inflation rate, marking the highest level in three years and reflecting acceleration due to energy price increases and geopolitical tensions, influencing market expectations for persistent inflation.

June 2026 CPI report confirms inflation at 3.5% year-over-year

The June 2026 CPI report showed inflation at 3.5% year-over-year, slightly higher than March's 3.3%, indicating persistent inflation pressures despite some easing from May's peak. Energy and shelter costs remained significant contributors.

BLS releases May 2026 CPI showing 0.5% monthly increase and 4.2% annual inflation

Above 5% jumps to 16%7%

The May 2026 CPI report indicated inflation accelerated to 4.2% year-over-year, driven largely by energy costs, which pushed market expectations for inflation above 5% higher temporarily before declining again.

BLS releases June 2026 CPI showing 0.4% monthly decline and 3.5% annual inflation

Above 4.5% plunges to 21%15%

The June 2026 CPI report revealed a 0.4% monthly decrease, the largest since April 2020, and a 3.5% year-over-year increase, below expectations, driven by a significant drop in energy prices, easing inflation concerns and impacting market inflation expectations.

New York Fed survey shows stable U.S. public inflation expectations in May

Above 4.5% rises to 64%4%

Despite rising inflation pressures, the New York Fed survey indicated that the U.S. public's inflation outlook remained largely unchanged in May, providing some market reassurance.

San Francisco Fed warns of inflation delays due to commodity prices and geopolitical risks

Above 4.5% plunges to 48%15%

The San Francisco Fed highlighted that higher commodity prices and geopolitical instability could delay inflation's return to the 2% target, with risks of elevated inflation persisting through 2026. This assessment contributed to market caution on inflation outcomes above 4.5% and 5%.

BLS May CPI inflation rises 0.5%, annual rate climbs to 4.2% driven by energy costs

Above 4.5% drops to 64%6%

May 2026 CPI data revealed a 0.5% monthly increase and a 4.2% annual inflation rate, with energy prices, especially gasoline, accounting for over 60% of the increase, reinforcing inflation concerns.

May 2026 CPI report confirms inflation surge to 4.2% year-over-year

Above 4.5% dips to 24%1%

The May 2026 CPI report showed inflation rising to 4.2%, the highest since April 2023, driven by energy shocks and persistent core inflation, impacting market pricing for inflation above 4.5% and 5%.

US and Iran extend ceasefire, oil prices drop about 20% from 2026 peak

Above 6% drops to 20%14%

In late May 2026, US and Iranian negotiators agreed to extend the ceasefire, leading to a significant drop in oil prices by about 20% from their 2026 highs. This easing of energy prices helped moderate inflation expectations and market volatility.

Federal Reserve raises 2026 inflation forecast amid Iran conflict

Above 5% dips to 30%2%

In response to geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices from the Iran-Israel conflict, the Federal Reserve raised its 2026 inflation forecast from 2.4% to 2.7%, signaling risks of sustained inflation pressures. This contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in probabilities for inflation exceeding higher thresholds.

US GDP and economic data releases test growth amid inflation concerns

On May 28, 2026, key US economic data including GDP and personal income were released, providing insights into growth and consumer spending amid persistent inflation. These data influenced market views on inflation trajectory and Federal Reserve policy.

US economic data releases show mixed signals on growth and inflation

Above 5% drops to 27%11%

The release of GDP, personal income, and durable goods orders data in late May 2026 provided a comprehensive snapshot of economic health, influencing inflation expectations and market pricing.

Kevin Warsh sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair amid rising inflation concerns

Above 5% drops to 29%5%

Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair on May 22, 2026, at a time of rising inflation and market uncertainty. His leadership marked a potential shift in monetary policy amid persistent inflation and geopolitical risks affecting energy prices.

May 2026 CPI inflation hits 4.2%, highest since April 2023, driven by energy costs

Above 4.5% jumps to 40%10%

The BLS reported May 2026 CPI inflation at 4.2% year-over-year, the highest in over three years, fueled by rising gasoline and energy prices amid the Iran war, reinforcing inflation persistence and influencing Federal Reserve policy outlook.

May 2026 CPI rises to 4.2%, highest since April 2023, driven by energy costs

Above 4.5% surges to 50%31%

The May 2026 CPI report showed inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest in three years, largely due to a sharp increase in energy prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. This spike heightened concerns about persistent inflation and influenced Federal Reserve policy considerations.

US inflation surges to 4.2% in May 2026 amid Iran conflict and energy price spike

Above 5% rises to 35%4%

Inflation reached 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, the highest in three years, driven by rising energy costs due to the ongoing conflict in Iran, raising concerns about sustained inflation and complicating Fed policy.

Gasoline prices peak at $4.55/gallon amid Iran war energy shock

Above 4.5% surges to 75%16%

Gasoline prices peaked at $4.55 per gallon in May 2026, the highest since the 2022 energy crisis, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and military operations against Iran. This energy shock was a major driver of the surge in headline inflation and increased inflation expectations.

Gasoline prices peak at $4.55/gallon amid Middle East conflict, driving May 2026 CPI to 4.2%

Above 8% plunges to 5%33%

Energy prices surged due to geopolitical tensions, pushing the May 2026 CPI to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest in three years. This spike raised concerns about persistent inflation and influenced market expectations for Federal Reserve policy tightening.

Economists raise 2026 inflation forecasts amid rising energy costs

Above 6% surges to 39%23%

Surveys showed economists lifting inflation expectations for 2026 to around 6% in Q2, reflecting concerns about spreading price pressures and persistent energy shocks. This raised market uncertainty and inflation risk premiums.

Iran War Disruptions Drive Energy Prices and Fuel Inflation Fears

Above 4.5% surges to 85%24%

Ongoing hostilities with Iran and disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies caused energy prices to spike, driving the probability of inflation exceeding 4.5% to its peak of 85%.

US inflation surges to 4.2% in May amid energy price spike from Iran conflict

Above 6% surges to 31%18%

The May 2026 CPI report showed inflation rising to 4.2% annually, the highest since April 2023, driven largely by a 3.9% monthly jump in energy prices due to the ongoing Iran war, which significantly impacted consumer costs and market inflation expectations.

Rising energy prices and corporate reports highlight inflationary pressures

Above 4.5% jumps to 37%7%

On May 16, 2026, economic analysis highlighted the impact of expensive oil and fuel on inflation, alongside corporate earnings reports, underscoring inflationary pressures and cautious expectations on Federal Reserve rate decisions. This contributed to market reassessment of inflation risks and economic resilience.

Survey projects inflation rate to hit 6% in Q2 2026

Above 6% surges to 36%27%

A survey of top economists forecasted consumer price inflation to reach 6% in the second quarter of 2026, raising market concerns about higher inflation thresholds but actual CPI data later showed lower levels.

Markets shift away from Fed rate cut expectations after strong inflation report

Above 5% rises to 35%3%

Following a stronger-than-expected inflation report, markets reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 and began pricing in a possibility of a rate hike, reflecting concerns about sustained inflation pressures.

US Consumer Price Index rises 0.5% in May, inflation hits 4.2% annual rate

Above 4.5% surges to 75%25%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the CPI increased 0.5% in May 2026, pushing the annual inflation rate to 4.2%, the highest since April 2023. The surge was driven largely by energy prices amid the Iran conflict, raising concerns about persistent inflation and influencing market inflation expectations upward.

Turkish Central Bank raises 2026 inflation forecast to 26% citing war-driven energy shocks

Above 6% drops to 21%10%

Turkey's Central Bank significantly increased its inflation forecast for 2026 due to war-related energy price spikes and global uncertainty, highlighting the broader inflationary pressures from geopolitical tensions affecting global markets including the U.S.

May 2026 CPI report shows inflation rose to 4.2% year-over-year amid energy price surge

Above 4.5% jumps to 28%12%

The May 2026 CPI report revealed inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year, driven largely by a sharp rise in energy prices due to geopolitical tensions, increasing market expectations for higher inflation thresholds.

Energy prices rise 23.5% over year ending May 2026 amid Iran war impact

Above 6% drops to 28%6%

Energy prices surged 23.5% year-over-year by May 2026, largely due to disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supplies from the Iran conflict. This energy cost spike contributed significantly to the overall CPI increase and influenced market inflation expectations upward.

May 2026 CPI report shows inflation acceleration to 4.2% year-over-year

Above 5% jumps to 19%10%

The May 2026 CPI data revealed a rise in inflation to 4.2% year-over-year, driven primarily by a sharp increase in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, raising concerns about persistent inflation and impacting market pricing for higher inflation thresholds.

May 2026 CPI inflation report shows 4.2% annual increase amid energy price surge

Above 4.5% jumps to 59%9%

The May 2026 CPI report revealed a 4.2% year-over-year inflation rate, the highest since April 2023, driven largely by a 23.5% increase in energy prices due to Middle East tensions. This reinforced market concerns about persistent inflation, temporarily increasing probabilities for inflation above 4.5% and 5%.

CPI inflation rises to 3.8% annually in April 2026 amid energy price surge

Above 4.5% jumps to 61%11%

The April 2026 CPI report showed a 3.8% year-over-year increase, driven by rising energy prices and tariffs. This reinforced concerns about inflation persistence and influenced market expectations for inflation above 4.5%.

May 2026 CPI report shows 0.5% monthly increase, annual inflation at 4.2%

Above 5% plunges to 13%22%

The May 2026 CPI release reported a 0.5% monthly increase and a 4.2% year-over-year inflation rate, driven largely by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions. This data reinforced expectations of persistent inflation but also signaled some moderation, leading to a decline in market prices for higher inflation outcomes.

BLS releases May 2026 CPI showing inflation at 4.2%, highest since April 2023

Above 4.5% drops to 25%13%

The May 2026 CPI report showed a 4.2% year-over-year increase, driven by energy price surges linked to the Iran conflict. This spike caused market prices for inflation above 4.5% and 5% to fluctuate, reflecting increased inflation risk.

U.S. Consumer Price Index rises 0.6% in April 2026, continuing inflation pressures

Above 5% dips to 26%1%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.6% seasonally adjusted increase in the CPI for April 2026, following a 0.9% rise in March. This sustained inflation increase contributed to market reassessment of inflation risks, keeping probabilities for higher inflation outcomes elevated but starting to moderate.

April 2026 CPI report shows inflation rising 0.6% monthly and 3.8% annually

Above 5% rises to 13%4%

The BLS released the April 2026 CPI report showing a 0.6% monthly increase and a 3.8% annual inflation rate, reflecting a spike in inflation and raising concerns about persistent price pressures heading into mid-2026.

BLS April CPI inflation rises 0.6%, annual rate at 3.8% amid persistent price pressures

Above 4.5% rises to 70%4%

April 2026 CPI data showed a 0.6% monthly increase and 3.8% annual inflation, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures from energy and shelter costs, sustaining market concerns about inflation persistence.

April 2026 CPI rises 0.6%, inflation remains elevated

Above 4.5% jumps to 58%8%

The April 2026 CPI report showed a 0.6% monthly increase and a 3.8% year-over-year rise, driven by higher energy prices and shelter costs, sustaining market expectations for inflation above 4.5% and 5%.

April CPI Inflation Climbs to 3.8% Driven by Surging Energy Costs

Above 4.5% jumps to 58%8%

The April CPI report showed headline inflation rising to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest reading since May 2023, driven by sharply higher energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict.

BLS reports April 2026 CPI rise amid Iran war impact on energy prices

April 2026 CPI data showed a 0.6% monthly increase with inflation rising further due to elevated energy, food, transportation, and housing costs linked to the Iran conflict. This heightened inflation concerns and influenced market expectations for higher inflation outcomes.

April 2026 CPI inflation rises to 3.8%, outpacing wage gains

Above 6% rises to 20%2%

BLS data showed CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year in April 2026, with energy and food prices rising, while real wages declined, indicating a squeeze on consumers and reinforcing inflation concerns in the market.

April 2026 CPI shows highest annual inflation since May 2023 at 3.8%

Above 4.5% jumps to 57%7%

The CPI report for April 2026 revealed a 3.8% year-over-year inflation rate, driven by a 17.9% rise in energy prices, signaling persistent inflationary pressures and influencing market expectations upward temporarily.

April 2026 CPI inflation rises to 3.8% amid Iran war energy impact

Above 5% jumps to 23%10%

The April 2026 CPI report showed inflation rising to 3.8% year-over-year, driven by surging energy and fuel prices linked to the ongoing Iran conflict. This heightened inflation raised market concerns about delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts and sustained price pressures.

Fast food chains launch value menus amid high food prices

Above 4% surges to 73%32%

Major fast food chains like Wendy's, Taco Bell, and McDonald's introduced new value menus in May 2026 to attract cost-conscious consumers facing 4.1% higher dining costs. This consumer response to persistent food price inflation supported market expectations for inflation above 4% but limited expectations for very high inflation.

April 2026 CPI inflation rises to 3.8% annually amid energy price surge

The CPI increased 3.8% year over year in April 2026, up from 3.3% in March, driven by surging gas prices due to the Iran conflict, raising market concerns about persistent inflation pressures.

April 2026 CPI shows 0.6% monthly increase, inflation remains elevated

Above 5% jumps to 26%8%

The April 2026 CPI report indicated a 0.6% monthly increase, continuing the trend of elevated inflation. This sustained inflationary pressure kept market expectations for higher inflation elevated.

May 2026 CPI report shows inflation acceleration to 4.2% driven by energy costs

Above 6% plunges to 4%43%

The May 2026 CPI report revealed a 4.2% year-over-year inflation rate, the highest in three years, largely driven by a 7% monthly increase in gasoline prices amid geopolitical tensions. This spike raised market expectations for inflation outcomes above 4.5%, 5%, and 6%.

BLS reports April 2026 CPI increase of 0.6% month-over-month

Above 4.5% jumps to 27%7%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April 2026 CPI showing a 0.6% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis, reflecting continued inflationary pressures, particularly from energy and shelter costs. This report influenced market expectations, causing temporary increases in inflation probability prices before subsequent declines.

BLS releases May 2026 CPI report showing 0.5% monthly increase and 4.2% annual inflation

Above 6% plunges to 3%17%

The May 2026 CPI report indicated a 0.5% monthly increase and a 4.2% rise over the past 12 months, the largest 12-month increase since April 2023. Energy prices, especially gasoline, rose significantly, contributing to inflation. Despite this, market probabilities for inflation above 6%, 8%, and 10% dropped sharply, reflecting expectations that inflation would not reach very high levels.

April 2026 CPI data shows 0.6% monthly rise, annual inflation at 3.8%

The April CPI report showed inflation rising 0.6% monthly and 3.8% annually, the highest since May 2023, driven by energy and shelter costs, reinforcing concerns about persistent inflation and influencing market pricing downward for very high inflation outcomes.

BLS Reports Annualized CPI Inflation Rate for April 2026 at 3.8 Percent

Above 4.5% jumps to 61%11%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annualized CPI inflation rate for April 2026 rose to 3.8%, up from 3.3% in March, signaling a steady acceleration in consumer prices.

US Consumer Price Index Rises 0.6% in April 2026, Continuing Inflation Pressure

Above 5% jumps to 37%8%

The BLS reported a 0.6% increase in the CPI for April 2026, following a 0.9% rise in March, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures driven by energy and other costs amid geopolitical tensions.

BLS reports May 2026 CPI shows inflation rose 4.2% year-over-year, driven by energy costs

Above 4.5% jumps to 57%7%

The May 2026 CPI report revealed a 4.2% annual inflation rate, the highest since April 2023, with energy prices accounting for over 60% of the increase amid ongoing Middle East conflict, pushing inflation expectations higher in mid-2026.

US CPI report shows headline inflation at 3.8% in April 2026

Above 8% plunges to 7%31%

The BLS released CPI data for April 2026 showing headline inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023, driven largely by energy price surges. This reinforced market concerns about persistent inflation but still below the highest market thresholds, causing further price declines for outcomes above 8% and 10%.

U.S. Inflation Accelerates to 3.8% in April as Energy Pressures Mount

Above 4.5% jumps to 63%13%

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in April, pushing the annual inflation rate to 3.8%, the highest level since May 2023, driven by a 3.8% jump in energy prices.

April 2026 CPI rises 0.6%, inflation remains elevated

Above 6% plunges to 10%37%

The April 2026 CPI report showed a 0.6% monthly increase, continuing a trend of elevated inflation driven by rising energy prices and shelter costs, reinforcing concerns about persistent inflation pressures.

April 2026 CPI rises 3.8% YoY, above forecast due to energy prices and shelter anomaly

Above 5% jumps to 37%11%

The April CPI report showed inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, slightly above forecasts, driven by elevated gasoline and oil prices and a statistical anomaly in shelter costs related to the prior government shutdown. This reinforced concerns about persistent inflation pressures.

US CPI inflation rises 3.8% annually in April 2026, highest since May 2023

April 2026 CPI data showed inflation rising to 3.8% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts and driven by energy and food price increases. This reinforced concerns about inflation persistence and influenced market expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

April 2026 CPI report shows 0.6% monthly increase, continuing moderate inflation

Above 6% plunges to 5%42%

The April 2026 CPI report showed a 0.6% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis, indicating persistent but moderate inflation. This data contributed to market reassessment of inflation probabilities, particularly lowering chances of very high inflation outcomes.

May 2026 CPI report shows inflation accelerates to 4.2% amid energy cost surge

Above 4.5% jumps to 37%6%

The May 2026 CPI report indicated inflation rising to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest in three years, driven largely by a 3.9% monthly increase in energy prices and a 7% jump in gasoline costs. This reinforced inflationary pressures and market concerns about sustained high prices.

April 2026 CPI report shows inflation rises to 3.8% year-over-year

Above 4.5% jumps to 25%5%

The BLS released the April 2026 CPI report showing a 3.8% annual increase, the highest since May 2023, driven by energy price surges amid the Iran conflict. This reinforced market concerns about persistent inflation above 4.5%.

BLS releases April 2026 CPI showing continued inflation rise

Above 6% plunges to 5%42%

The April 2026 CPI report indicated ongoing inflation pressures with a 0.6% monthly increase, contributing to market concerns about persistent inflation above target levels and influencing inflation expectations upward.

May 2026 US CPI report shows inflation surge to 4.2%

Above 4.5% drops to 24%7%

The May 2026 CPI report revealed a 4.2% year-over-year increase, the highest since April 2023, driven largely by rising energy prices amid geopolitical tensions. This spike caused market volatility and complicated Federal Reserve policy decisions.

US CPI inflation rises to 3.8% in April amid ongoing energy price pressures

April 2026 CPI data showed inflation increasing to 3.8% year-over-year, continuing the upward trend driven by elevated energy prices due to the Middle East conflict. This sustained inflationary pressure heightened concerns about persistent inflation.

April 2026 CPI inflation jumps to 3.8%, highest since May 2023

Above 4.5% plunges to 19%19%

The April CPI report showed a 0.6% monthly increase and a 3.8% annual inflation rate, the highest in nearly three years, with energy prices rising 3.8% and shelter costs climbing, intensifying inflation concerns.

Wendy’s launches $4 Biggie Deals menu amid rising food prices

Above 4% surges to 97%23%

Wendy’s introduced a new value menu to attract cost-conscious consumers facing rising grocery and food prices, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures and influencing market expectations for inflation above 4%.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate range at 3.50%-3.75% in May 2026, reflecting ongoing concerns about elevated inflation and economic stability, signaling a cautious approach to monetary policy.

April 2026 CPI inflation expected to rise to 3.7% amid Iran war impact

Above 5% jumps to 34%7%

Economists forecasted April 2026 CPI inflation to increase to 3.7% year-over-year, driven by higher oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions, reinforcing market fears of sustained inflation and influencing Fed policy outlook.

Stronger-than-expected inflation report shifts market rate hike expectations

Above 5% rises to 30%3%

A stronger inflation report in May 2026 led financial markets to adjust expectations, moving away from rate cuts and pricing in a growing possibility of another Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026. This reflected concerns about rising prices across the U.S. economy, particularly energy costs.

US inflation hits 3.8% in April, highest since 2023 due to energy costs

Above 5% jumps to 17%8%

April 2026 CPI data showed inflation rising to 3.8% year-over-year, driven by surging gasoline and energy prices linked to the ongoing Iran conflict. This marked a reacceleration of inflation, raising concerns about persistent price pressures and influencing market expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

US inflation surges to 3.8% in April amid Iran conflict energy shock

Above 4.5% drops to 72%6%

April 2026 CPI inflation rose to 3.8%, the highest in over three years, driven by energy price shocks from the Iran conflict. This spike increased market expectations for inflation above 4.5% and potential Fed rate hikes.

May 2026 CPI shows inflation accelerates to 4.2% year-over-year

The May 2026 CPI report revealed a significant rise in inflation to 4.2% annually, the highest since April 2023, driven mainly by surging energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, raising concerns about persistent inflation and influencing market expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

May 2026 CPI inflation rises to 4.2%, highest since April 2023

Above 4.5% plunges to 24%26%

The May CPI report showed inflation rising to 4.2% year-over-year, driven largely by a surge in energy prices amid the Iran conflict, marking the highest inflation rate in over three years and impacting market inflation expectations.

US inflation rises to 4.2% in May 2026, highest since April 2023

Above 4.5% surges to 59%40%

The May 2026 CPI report showed inflation rising to 4.2% year-over-year, driven largely by energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, pushing market expectations for inflation higher and increasing probabilities for inflation above 4.5% and 5%.

May 2026 CPI report shows inflation acceleration to 4.2% year-over-year, highest since April 2023

Above 4.5% plunges to 21%29%

The BLS reported that the CPI-U rose 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, driven largely by a 7% monthly increase in gasoline prices and energy costs accounting for over 60% of the increase, intensifying inflation concerns.

May 2026 CPI rises 4.2% annually, highest since April 2023

Above 4.5% rises to 24%4%

The May 2026 CPI report showed inflation rising to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest since April 2023, driven by energy price increases. This renewed inflation pressure caused market prices for inflation above 4.5% and 5% to increase temporarily before declining again.

May 2026 CPI inflation report shows annual inflation at 4.2%, highest since April 2023

Above 6% jumps to 26%8%

The May 2026 CPI report revealed inflation rose to 4.2% year-over-year, driven by a 23.5% surge in energy prices amid the Iran war, pushing inflation expectations higher and causing market prices for higher inflation thresholds to increase.

May 2026 CPI inflation surges to 4.2%, highest since 2023

Above 8% plunges to 3%35%

The May 2026 CPI report showed inflation rising to 4.2% year-over-year, driven largely by a 3.9% monthly jump in energy prices amid Middle East tensions, causing market prices for higher inflation outcomes to spike.

US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports May 2026 CPI inflation rises to 4.2%

Above 4.5% plunges to 25%25%

The May 2026 CPI report showed inflation rising to 4.2%, the highest since April 2023, driven by elevated energy prices amid ongoing Iran conflict, reinforcing market concerns about sustained inflationary pressures.

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, signaling economic pivot

Above 6% drops to 10%8%

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.5 percentage points to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, marking a shift from fighting inflation to supporting the labor market. This rate cut led to a sharp decline in market prices for inflation outcomes above 6%, 8%, and 10%, reflecting expectations of easing inflationary pressures.

May 2026 CPI report shows inflation at 4.2%, driven by energy prices

Above 4.5% jumps to 40%10%

The May 2026 CPI report revealed inflation accelerated to 4.2% year-over-year, with energy costs accounting for over 60% of the increase amid geopolitical tensions, raising concerns about persistent inflationary pressures.

May 2026 CPI report shows inflation accelerates to 4.2% driven by energy price surge

Above 4.5% jumps to 61%11%

The May 2026 CPI report revealed a 4.2% year-over-year inflation rate, the highest since April 2023, driven mainly by a sharp rise in energy costs amid geopolitical tensions, increasing market expectations for higher inflation.

BLS reports May 2026 CPI inflation rise driven by energy prices

Above 4.5% jumps to 33%12%

The May 2026 CPI report showed inflation rising 0.5% month-over-month, with energy prices, especially gasoline, increasing significantly. This sustained inflationary pressure kept market expectations for inflation above moderate levels, though still below extreme thresholds.

May 2026 CPI inflation rises, driven by energy prices amid Middle East tensions

Above 5% jumps to 34%7%

The BLS reported inflation rose in May 2026, with energy prices up 23.5% year-over-year and gasoline prices increasing 7% monthly, reflecting ongoing disruptions from the Iran war. This sustained energy inflation kept headline CPI elevated, impacting market sentiment and Fed policy outlook.

Bureau of Labor Statistics reports May 2026 CPI inflation rises to 4.2% amid energy price surge

Above 4.5% rises to 34%4%

The May 2026 CPI report showed inflation rising to 4.2%, the highest in three years, driven largely by a 40.5% year-over-year increase in gasoline prices due to the Iran conflict impacting energy markets. This data reinforced concerns about persistent inflation and influenced market expectations for Fed policy.

Inflation surges to highest level in three years amid Iran war energy shock

Above 4.5% surges to 82%32%

May 2026 CPI data showed a 4.2% annual increase, the highest since April 2023, driven largely by a 40% rise in gasoline prices due to the Iran war. This spike in energy costs pushed inflation expectations and market prices for higher inflation outcomes to peak, reflecting fears of sustained inflation above 4.5%.

PepsiCo cuts prices on snacks to regain customers amid inflation pressures

Above 4.5% surges to 75%34%

PepsiCo announced price cuts on popular snack brands to address weakened demand caused by years of price hikes. This move reflects consumer sensitivity to inflation and may influence inflation expectations, particularly for outcomes above 4.5% and 5%.

PepsiCo announces price cuts amid weakening demand due to inflation

Above 5% jumps to 35%7%

PepsiCo cut prices on popular snack products to regain customers frustrated by years of price hikes, signaling consumer sensitivity to inflation and impacting market inflation expectations, particularly for higher inflation outcomes.

Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates by 50 Basis Points, Signaling Economic Pivot

Above 6% drops to 10%6%

The Fed cut rates to 4.25%-4.50%, marking a shift from fighting inflation to supporting a softening labor market. This move suggested confidence in inflation cooling, leading markets to lower probabilities for very high inflation outcomes.

April 2026 CPI report shows inflation remains elevated at 4.2% annually

Above 4.5% surges to 35%17%

The May 2026 CPI report (released June 10) indicated inflation rose 4.2% over the past year, driven largely by energy price increases. This report caused a temporary increase in inflation expectations, especially for the above 4.5% and above 5% outcomes, reflecting concerns about persistent inflation pressures.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate in April 2026, citing ongoing inflation risks and economic resilience. This decision reflected concerns about inflation remaining above target, influencing market expectations for inflation persistence.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid inflation risks from Middle East conflict

Above 5% rises to 34%4%

The Fed maintained interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% in April, citing inflation risks from geopolitical tensions and a slowing growth outlook, which contributed to market uncertainty and influenced inflation expectations.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation

Above 4.5% jumps to 59%9%

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate range in April 2026, signaling caution as inflation remained above target and energy prices rose, reinforcing market expectations of sustained inflationary pressures.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, signals patience amid inflation risks

Above 8% plunges to 2%36%

The Fed maintained its benchmark interest rate steady in April 2026, acknowledging persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical risks. The decision reinforced market expectations of a 'higher-for-longer' rate environment, influencing inflation market prices downward for higher inflation thresholds.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions

The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% during Jerome Powell's final meeting as chair, citing elevated inflation driven by rising energy prices linked to the Iran conflict and a cautious labor market. This reinforced market expectations of sustained inflation risks.

Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at 3.50%-3.75%

Above 4.5% dips to 15%4%

At its April 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady, citing inflation trends and economic resilience. The decision reinforced market expectations of a 'higher for longer' interest rate environment, supporting elevated inflation concerns.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid inflation risks from Middle East conflict

The Fed maintained interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% in April 2026, citing inflation risks from geopolitical tensions and a slowing growth outlook. The ongoing Middle East conflict was expected to act as an inflation shock, influencing inflation expectations and market pricing.

IMF warns Middle East conflict could push global inflation higher

Above 6% plunges to 4%43%

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict could increase global inflation by raising oil prices, which would impact inflation expectations and market pricing. This geopolitical risk contributed to volatility in inflation market prices, especially for higher inflation thresholds.

FOMC minutes reveal concerns over elevated inflation and energy prices

Above 4.5% surges to 78%21%

April FOMC minutes highlighted inflation remaining elevated, driven by sharp energy price increases linked to global tensions. Concerns about inflation expectations becoming unanchored contributed to market reassessment of inflation risks.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid elevated inflation concerns

Above 6% rises to 18%4%

The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing solid economic activity but persistent inflation partly due to global energy price increases, signaling cautious monetary policy amid inflation risks.

FOMC minutes reveal concerns over elevated inflation and energy prices

Above 6% plunges to 10%37%

The April 2026 Federal Open Market Committee minutes highlighted that inflation remained elevated, driven by a sharp increase in energy prices, raising concerns about inflation pressures becoming embedded more broadly and influencing cautious Fed policy.

Federal Reserve FOMC minutes highlight elevated inflation and energy price impact

Above 4.5% drops to 60%12%

The April 2026 FOMC minutes noted inflation remained elevated partly due to rising global energy prices, signaling continued inflation concerns and influencing market expectations for inflation outcomes above 4.5% and 5%.

April 2026 CPI report shows inflation surges to 3.8% driven by energy prices

Above 4.5% jumps to 31%12%

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April 2026 CPI report revealing a 3.8% year-over-year inflation rate, the highest in nearly three years, primarily driven by a 3.8% monthly increase in energy prices. This surge raised concerns about persistent inflation and influenced market expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve stance.

April 2026 CPI inflation expected to rise amid Iran war impact

Above 5% rises to 13%4%

The April 2026 CPI report was anticipated to show a rise in inflation to 3.7% year-over-year, driven by higher oil prices and the ongoing Iran conflict, which increased fuel and transport costs, raising concerns about delayed Fed rate cuts.

U.S. wholesale prices surge as Iran war escalates energy costs

Above 4% jumps to 48%7%

In April 2026, wholesale prices surged 4% year-over-year, driven by an 8.5% increase in energy prices due to the Iran war. This surge heightened inflation concerns and influenced market pricing for inflation above 4%.

Amazon imposes 3.5% fuel surcharge amid Iran war-driven fuel price rise

Above 4% jumps to 54%13%

Amazon announced a 3.5% fuel and logistics surcharge on third-party sellers starting mid-April 2026 due to elevated fuel costs from the ongoing Iran war. Rising fuel and logistics costs contributed to inflationary pressures, influencing market expectations for inflation above 4% and 5%.

Australia’s central bank raises interest rate to 3.85% amid surging inflation

Above 4% jumps to 49%8%

The Reserve Bank of Australia increased its benchmark interest rate after inflation rose to 3.8% for the 12 months through December, signaling persistent inflation pressures. This global inflationary environment influenced market expectations for U.S. inflation outcomes above 4% and 5%.

March 2026 CPI data released showing inflation pressures persist

Above 6% plunges to 3%44%

The March 2026 CPI release showed a 0.9% monthly increase and a 3.3% year-over-year rise, reinforcing concerns about ongoing inflation pressures and impacting market pricing for inflation above moderate thresholds.

April 2026 CPI inflation rises 0.6% monthly, energy costs surge

Above 4.5% jumps to 32%8%

The April 2026 CPI report showed a 0.6% monthly increase, driven largely by a 7.8% jump in producer energy costs and a 18.6% year-over-year rise in energy prices. This spike heightened inflation concerns and market expectations for inflation above 4.5%.

BLS reports April 2026 CPI increase of 0.6% monthly, signaling persistent inflation

Above 5% drops to 18%12%

The April 2026 CPI report showed a 0.6% monthly increase, continuing the trend of persistent inflation but at a moderate pace. This data contributed to market reassessment of inflation risks, tempering expectations for very high inflation in 2026.

April 2026 CPI report shows inflation remains elevated but stable

Above 4.5% rises to 25%1%

The April 2026 CPI report showed a 0.6% monthly increase, continuing a trend of persistent inflation. This report maintained market expectations for moderate inflation, supporting prices for outcomes above 4.5% and 5%.

April 2026 CPI inflation rises 3.8% annually, exceeding expectations

Above 5% jumps to 26%9%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3.8% year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index for April 2026, slightly above the 3.7% consensus forecast. Energy prices surged 3.8% for the month, contributing to inflation concerns and temporarily boosting market expectations for higher inflation thresholds.

April 2026 CPI report shows inflation rise of 0.6% monthly, signaling persistent inflation

Above 6% plunges to 3%44%

The BLS reported a 0.6% increase in the CPI for April 2026, continuing the trend of elevated inflation and raising concerns about inflation persistence ahead of mid-year Federal Reserve policy decisions.

March 2026 CPI rises 3.3% year-over-year amid energy price surge

Above 6% jumps to 27%11%

The BLS March 2026 CPI report showed a 3.3% annual increase, reflecting the impact of rising energy prices due to the Iran conflict, which heightened inflation concerns and delayed expectations for Fed rate cuts.

April 2026 CPI rises 0.6%, inflation remains elevated but stable

Above 5% dips to 14%4%

The BLS released April 2026 CPI data showing a 0.6% increase seasonally adjusted, indicating inflation remains elevated but stable. This data contributed to a gradual decline in market probabilities for inflation above higher thresholds as inflation did not accelerate further.

BLS reports April 2026 CPI increase of 0.6% month-over-month, with annual inflation at 3.8%

Above 5% rises to 13%4%

The April 2026 CPI report showed a monthly increase of 0.6% and a year-over-year inflation rate of 3.8%, the highest since May 2023, driven by rising energy prices, which temporarily raised inflation expectations in the market.

April 2026 CPI report shows 0.6% monthly increase, inflation remains elevated

Above 4.5% surges to 67%36%

The BLS released April 2026 CPI data showing a 0.6% monthly increase and sustained inflation pressures, particularly from energy and shelter costs. This report contributed to market volatility and a temporary rise in inflation odds, especially for the above 4.5% threshold.

BLS releases March 2026 CPI data amid inflation and Fed policy focus

March 2026 CPI release showed inflation data critical for Federal Reserve policy decisions. Higher-than-expected inflation could delay rate cuts or prompt hikes, impacting market inflation expectations and price volatility.

Federal Reserve releases March 2026 CPI data showing 0.9% monthly increase

The BLS reported a 0.9% seasonally adjusted increase in CPI for March 2026, indicating persistent inflation pressures and contributing to market expectations of elevated inflation for the year.

US CPI Inflation Rises 3.3% in March 2026 Amid Energy Price Surge from Iran Conflict

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3.3% year-over-year CPI increase in March 2026, driven by a 10.9% surge in energy costs due to the Iran conflict. This spike heightened inflation concerns and market expectations for inflation above 4.5% and 5%.

March 2026 CPI inflation rises to 3.3% driven by Iran conflict energy spike

Above 5% jumps to 17%10%

BLS reported a 0.9% monthly CPI increase in March 2026, pushing annual inflation to 3.3%, largely due to a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices linked to the Iran conflict, intensifying inflation concerns and impacting market expectations.

April 2026 CPI report shows 0.6% monthly increase, inflation remains elevated

Above 6% dips to 10%4%

The April 2026 CPI report showed a 0.6% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis, continuing the trend of persistent inflation. This report maintained market expectations for inflation above moderate thresholds but did not support very high inflation outcomes, contributing to price declines for above 6%, 8%, and 10% outcomes.

March 2026 CPI inflation spikes to 3.3% driven by Iran war energy shock

Above 6% jumps to 26%13%

The March 2026 CPI report showed a 3.3% annual increase, up from 2.4% in February, driven largely by a 10.9% surge in energy costs due to the Iran war. Gasoline prices soared 21.2% in March, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the monthly inflation increase, raising concerns about persistent inflation.

March 2026 CPI report shows 0.9% monthly increase, inflation pressures rise

Above 6% jumps to 13%6%

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.9% increase in the Consumer Price Index for March 2026, signaling rising inflation pressures. This report contributed to market expectations of sustained inflation, influencing price movements in inflation prediction markets.

U.S. Consumer Prices Spike 3.3% in March as Iran Conflict Drives Energy Costs Higher

Above 5% drops to 24%12%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices jumped in March, driven largely by a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices due to the outbreak of hostilities with Iran.

BLS reports April 2026 CPI increase of 0.6% monthly, inflation moderates

Above 6% drops to 10%5%

The April 2026 CPI report showed a 0.6% monthly increase, down from 0.9% in March, indicating moderating inflation pressures. This contributed to market declines in probabilities for inflation exceeding 6% and higher thresholds as inflation appeared to be cooling.

March 2026 CPI inflation rises to 3.3% amid energy price surge

The BLS reported a 0.9% monthly increase in CPI for March 2026, pushing annual inflation to 3.3%, driven by a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices due to the Iran conflict. This spike heightened inflation concerns and reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts.

March 2026 CPI data shows inflation rising to 3.3% year-over-year

Above 6% rises to 13%3%

The March 2026 CPI report revealed a 3.3% year-over-year increase, driven by a 0.9% monthly rise, the highest since mid-2025. This increase was influenced by energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, raising concerns about persistent inflation.

US CPI inflation jumps to 3.3% in March driven by energy costs

The March 2026 CPI report showed a sharp increase to 3.3% year-over-year inflation, largely due to a 10.9% surge in energy prices following the Iran conflict. Core inflation remained relatively stable, indicating the spike was driven by supply-side shocks rather than demand.

BLS reports 3.3% annual CPI inflation in March 2026 driven by energy price surge

Above 4.5% jumps to 66%7%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3.3% year-over-year CPI increase in March 2026, with gasoline prices soaring 21.2% due to the Iran conflict, pushing headline inflation higher and complicating Fed policy outlook.

BLS reports April 2026 CPI rise to 3.8% driven by energy prices

Above 4.5% jumps to 58%8%

The April 2026 CPI report showed the highest annual inflation since May 2023 at 3.8%, largely due to a 17.9% rise in energy prices, pushing market expectations for inflation above 4.5% higher temporarily.

April 2026 CPI report shows 0.6% monthly increase and 3.8% annual inflation

Above 5% jumps to 31%5%

The April CPI report indicated a monthly increase of 0.6% and a year-over-year inflation rate of 3.8%, reflecting continued inflationary pressures and contributing to market concerns about persistent inflation.

US and Iran agree to a two-week ceasefire, easing oil prices

Above 6% drops to 20%6%

On April 8, 2026, the US and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire, announced by President Trump. This agreement led to a sharp drop in oil prices and a surge in stock markets, providing some relief to inflation pressures caused by the conflict.

S&P 500 plunges nearly 5% amid trade war fears and inflation concerns

Above 6% plunges to 10%37%

Stock market declines driven by fears of escalating trade tensions and persistent inflation pressures reflected investor worries about economic growth and inflation control. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for inflation outcomes above 6%, 8%, and 10%.

Oil prices surge above $110 per barrel amid stalled Strait of Hormuz negotiations

Oil prices spiked due to stalled negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing conflict escalation, pushing Brent crude above $110 per barrel. This heightened inflation expectations as energy costs are a major component of CPI, influencing market inflation pricing.

Federal Reserve inflation forecast rises amid Iran war energy shock

Above 6% drops to 40%7%

The Federal Reserve's inflation forecast increased notably due to the Iran war causing a historic energy supply shock, leading to soaring crude oil and gas prices. This pushed inflation expectations higher and reduced optimism for interest rate cuts in 2026, impacting market inflation probabilities.

Federal Reserve raises 2026 inflation forecast amid rising risks

Above 5% drops to 13%6%

In March 2026, the Federal Reserve quietly raised its inflation forecast for 2026 from 2.4% to 2.7%, reflecting growing concerns about persistent inflation and influencing market expectations for higher inflation outcomes.

BLS corrects Consumer Price Index Research Retroactive Series data

The Bureau of Labor Statistics removed incorrect values from the R-CPI-U-RS data files and planned corrected data publication in early April 2026. This correction improved the accuracy of inflation measurement but had limited direct impact on market inflation expectations.

Economists Raise 2026 Inflation Forecast Amid Iran Conflict and Oil Shock

Above 6% plunges to 3%44%

A survey of economists in late March 2026 raised inflation expectations for the year due to higher oil prices linked to the Iran conflict, increasing concerns about sustained inflationary pressures and complicating Federal Reserve policy decisions.

Iran conflict triggers 21.2% surge in gasoline prices, pushing March CPI to 3.3%

Above 6% jumps to 13%5%

The outbreak of conflict in Iran caused gasoline prices to soar by 21.2%, accounting for most of the headline CPI increase in March 2026, driving inflation higher and impacting market inflation expectations significantly.

March 2026 CPI jumps 0.9% driven by energy price surge

Above 5% surges to 25%16%

In March 2026, the CPI increased sharply by 0.9% month-over-month, largely due to a surge in energy prices amid geopolitical tensions. This caused a temporary spike in inflation expectations and market prices for higher inflation outcomes to rise briefly.

Economists raise 2026 US inflation forecast amid Iran conflict and oil price surge

Above 6% plunges to 10%37%

A survey of economists in late March 2026 raised inflation forecasts for the year to around 3.1%, citing higher oil prices due to the Iran conflict as a key driver. This geopolitical tension increased energy costs, pushing inflation expectations higher and influencing market pricing downward for higher inflation thresholds.

Economists raise 2026 inflation forecast to 3.6% amid rising oil prices

Above 5% dips to 15%4%

A survey of economists raised the 2026 inflation forecast to 3.6%, up from earlier estimates, driven by higher oil prices linked to the Iran conflict, which increased energy and consumer goods costs, raising inflation expectations.

US-Iran war begins, causing oil prices to surge over 55%

Above 8% plunges to 5%33%

The 2026 Iran war started with US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, leading to a major disruption in oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil prices surged from around $72 to nearly $120 per barrel by late March, triggering a global energy crisis and inflationary pressures in the US.

Economists raise 2026 inflation forecasts amid Iran conflict and oil price surge

Above 6% drops to 38%9%

A survey of economists increased their inflation outlook for 2026 due to higher oil prices linked to the conflict in Iran, projecting headline inflation above 3% and core inflation above the Fed's target, complicating monetary policy.

Economists raise 2026 inflation forecasts due to oil price shock amid Iran conflict

Above 5% drops to 11%8%

A survey of economists increased their 2026 inflation outlook to around 3.1% PCE inflation, citing higher oil prices linked to the Iran conflict. This raised concerns about inflation staying elevated longer, impacting market pricing for inflation above 5% and 6%.

Economists raise 2026 inflation forecasts due to Iran conflict and oil shock

A survey of economists increased their 2026 inflation outlook to 3.1% PCE inflation, citing higher oil prices linked to the Iran conflict. This raised concerns about sustained inflation pressures and influenced market expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Economists Raise 2026 Inflation Outlook Due to Iran Conflict and Oil Shock

A survey of economists raised their inflation forecasts for 2026, citing higher oil prices linked to the conflict in Iran. This geopolitical tension increased inflation expectations and influenced market pricing for inflation above 4.5% and 5%.

OECD forecasts US inflation at 4.2% for 2026 amid energy price surge

Above 6% plunges to 10%37%

The OECD raised its 2026 US inflation forecast to 4.2%, citing supply-induced energy price increases and tariff effects as key inflation drivers, highlighting risks of broader price pressures and economic uncertainty.

OECD sharply revises U.S. inflation forecast upward to 4.2% for 2026

The OECD released a forecast raising U.S. inflation expectations for 2026 to 4.2%, much higher than the Federal Reserve's estimate, signaling increased inflation risks and influencing market pricing toward higher inflation outcomes.

OECD raises 2026 US inflation forecast to 4.2% amid Middle East conflict

Above 4.5% plunges to 25%25%

The OECD sharply increased its US inflation forecast for 2026 to 4.2%, citing the impact of the Middle East war on energy prices, signaling higher inflation risks than previously expected.

OECD sharply raises U.S. inflation forecast to 4.2% for 2026 amid Middle East conflict

Above 4.5% jumps to 26%7%

The OECD revised its U.S. inflation forecast upward from 2.8% to 4.2% for 2026, citing the Iran war's impact on global energy markets and ongoing tariff effects, signaling higher inflation risks and potential policy responses.

US Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in March 2026

The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged in March 2026, signaling a cautious approach amid mixed economic signals and persistent inflation concerns. This decision influenced market expectations by suggesting a pause in tightening, which affected inflation risk pricing.

March 2026 CPI shows inflation up 3.3% year-over-year

Above 4.5% jumps to 38%6%

The BLS reported that the Consumer Price Index increased 3.3% over the 12 months ending March 2026, with a monthly rise of 0.9%, signaling persistent inflation pressures. This data reinforced market views that inflation would remain above 4.5% but below higher thresholds.

Federal Reserve holds rates as Iran war oil shock complicates inflation outlook

Above 4.5% jumps to 61%11%

The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously held the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, citing the surge in oil prices due to the Iran conflict as a major upside risk to inflation. This shifted market expectations away from rate cuts in 2026 and increased inflation concerns.

Federal Reserve holds rates as Iran war oil shock complicates inflation outlook

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, citing a sharp rise in oil prices from the Iran conflict as a significant upside risk to inflation. This geopolitical event increased inflation expectations and reduced market optimism for rate cuts in 2026, impacting inflation outcome prices especially above 5% and 6%.

Federal Reserve holds rates as Iran war oil shock complicates inflation outlook

The Fed maintained rates at 4.25%-4.50%, highlighting the Iran conflict's impact on oil prices as a major upside risk to inflation. This geopolitical shock led to upward revisions in inflation forecasts and reduced expectations for rate cuts in 2026, pushing market inflation probabilities higher.

Iran war heightens inflation concerns amid energy price surges

Above 4.5% jumps to 59%9%

The ongoing conflict in Iran has pushed energy prices higher, contributing to inflationary pressures globally and in the US. This geopolitical event raised concerns about sustained inflation above target, influencing market pricing for inflation outcomes above 4.5% and 5%.

Federal Reserve holds rates citing Iran war oil shock complicating inflation outlook

The Fed held rates at 4.25%-4.50% due to the oil price surge from the Iran conflict, which introduced significant inflation risks. Fed Chair Powell emphasized elevated uncertainty and the need to avoid premature easing, impacting market inflation expectations.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid elevated inflation

Above 5% dips to 7%2%

At its March meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, reflecting caution as inflation remained above target and economic growth was uneven. This decision influenced market expectations about inflation persistence and monetary policy.

Federal Reserve raises 2026 inflation forecast amid Iran conflict energy surge

Above 6% plunges to 10%37%

At the March 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve raised its inflation forecast for 2026 from 2.4% to 2.7%, reflecting concerns about energy price volatility due to the Iran-Israel conflict. This adjustment signaled a more hawkish stance, impacting inflation expectations upward.

Federal Reserve raises 2026 inflation forecast amid persistent price pressures

Above 4.5% jumps to 30%11%

At the March FOMC meeting, the Fed quietly increased its inflation forecast for 2026 from 2.4% to 2.7%, the largest upward revision in recent cycles, reflecting concerns about sustained inflation driven by energy prices and geopolitical tensions. The Fed also voted to keep rates steady, signaling ongoing caution.

Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% amid persistent inflation

The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate steady in March 2026, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation remaining above the 2% target. The cautious stance signaled that the Fed was monitoring inflation and labor market conditions closely, influencing market expectations for inflation persistence.

Federal Reserve maintains interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%

Above 6% rises to 8%1%

In March 2026, the Federal Reserve confirmed maintaining the interest rate on reserve balances, reinforcing a steady monetary policy stance amid ongoing inflation concerns.

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Holds Steady Amid Sticky Inflation and Resilient Economy

Ahead of the June 2026 Fed meeting, economists expected rates to remain steady due to persistent inflation and a strong labor market. This cautious stance kept market inflation probabilities moderate, reflecting uncertainty about inflation's trajectory.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady, raises 2026 inflation forecast

Above 5% jumps to 34%8%

At its March meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged but quietly raised its 2026 inflation forecast from 2.4% to 2.7%, signaling concerns about persistent inflation amid energy price volatility linked to geopolitical tensions.

Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady in March 2026 amid inflation concerns

Above 4.5% jumps to 26%7%

In March 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.5%-3.75%, reflecting a cautious approach as inflation remained elevated and economic growth uneven. This decision influenced market expectations for inflation and monetary policy throughout 2026.

Hiring slowdown in December challenges Federal Reserve's inflation control efforts

Above 5% jumps to 24%6%

Data showed sluggish hiring and a slight uptick in unemployment, complicating the Fed's dual mandate to control inflation and maximize employment. This increased uncertainty about future interest rate moves, affecting inflation expectations and market pricing for outcomes above 5% and 6%.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid elevated inflation

Above 4.5% jumps to 57%7%

The Fed kept rates unchanged in March 2026, reflecting ongoing elevated inflation and economic uncertainty. This cautious stance signaled that inflation remained a concern, supporting market expectations of persistent inflation above 4.5%.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid persistent inflation

In March 2026, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation remaining above target, which influenced market expectations for inflation persistence.

Iran conflict escalates, triggering oil price surge and inflation concerns

The outbreak of the Iran war in late February 2026 disrupted global oil supply, causing energy prices to spike sharply in March. This geopolitical shock led to a significant increase in inflation expectations, as energy costs are a major component of the CPI, pushing markets to anticipate higher inflation.

Consumer prices spike 3.3% in March amid Iran conflict-driven energy surge

Above 5% jumps to 14%5%

The CPI increased 0.9% in March 2026, pushing annual inflation to 3.3%, driven by a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices due to the Iran conflict. This energy price spike heightened inflation concerns and influenced market expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

March 2026 CPI spikes due to global energy shock and geopolitical tensions

Above 6% jumps to 14%7%

March CPI data showed a significant inflation spike driven by a 40% surge in gasoline prices amid geopolitical tensions, reversing earlier easing trends and raising concerns about persistent inflation pressures.

Consumer Price Index rises 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026

Above 4.5% jumps to 59%9%

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3.3% increase in the CPI for the 12 months ending March 2026, reflecting ongoing inflation pressures. This data contributed to market reassessment of inflation risks, impacting the 'Above 4.5%' and 'Above 5%' options.

February 2026 CPI inflation steady at 2.4% year-over-year

Above 4.5% drops to 9%10%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annual CPI inflation rate for February 2026 held steady at 2.4%, matching January's rate and consensus expectations, with energy prices rebounding slightly.

February 2026 CPI report shows steady inflation at 2.4%

Above 6% plunges to 10%37%

The February 2026 CPI report indicated inflation remained steady around 2.4%, with core inflation showing slight easing. This continued the trend of inflation moderating but staying above the Federal Reserve's target, affecting market expectations for inflation exceeding higher thresholds.

February 2026 CPI inflation steady at 2.4% despite rising energy costs

Above 5% rises to 10%1%

The February 2026 CPI report showed inflation holding steady at 2.4% year-over-year, with energy prices rising 0.6% for the month. The report was affected by data collection issues from the prior government shutdown, but inflation remained above the Fed's target, reinforcing expectations of steady monetary policy.

BLS reports February 2026 CPI rose 0.3% monthly and 2.4% annually

Above 6% dips to 6%2%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.3% monthly increase in CPI for February 2026 and a 2.4% rise over the past 12 months, matching market expectations and indicating moderate inflation pressures.

Consumer prices rise 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026

Above 6% plunges to 14%33%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3.3% increase in the Consumer Price Index over the 12 months ending March 2026, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures but below the higher thresholds in the market. This data contributed to a decline in market prices for inflation outcomes above 6% and 8%.

BLS reports February 2026 CPI edges higher by 0.3%

February 2026 CPI data showed a 0.3% monthly increase and 2.4% annual inflation, indicating moderate but persistent inflation pressures, especially in food and shelter. This reinforced expectations of inflation remaining elevated in early 2026.

Geopolitical tensions with Iran drive spike in US energy prices

Above 6% plunges to 10%37%

The conflict involving Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused a sharp rise in oil and gasoline prices, pushing inflation higher in March 2026. This supply shock led to a significant monthly CPI increase, raising market concerns about sustained inflationary pressures.

Hiring slowed in December despite Fed rate cuts

Above 5% jumps to 17%8%

December 2025 jobs data showed a slowdown in hiring with only 50,000 jobs added, defying Federal Reserve efforts to boost the labor market through interest rate cuts. Sluggish hiring and low wage growth tempered inflation expectations, causing fluctuations in market prices for higher inflation thresholds.

BLS reports March 2026 CPI increase of 3.3% year-over-year

The Consumer Price Index increased 3.3% over the 12 months ending March 2026, reflecting ongoing inflation pressures but below the higher market thresholds. This data contributed to market price declines for inflation above 6% and higher.

March 2026 CPI spikes to 3.3% YoY driven by energy costs amid Iran conflict

Above 6% rises to 14%4%

The March CPI report showed a 0.9% monthly increase and 3.3% year-over-year inflation, largely due to a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices caused by the ongoing Iran conflict. This spike raised inflation concerns and influenced market expectations for higher inflation in 2026.

US wholesale prices surge 4% amid Iran war driving energy costs higher

Above 4% surges to 32%17%

The Labor Department reported a 4% year-over-year increase in the producer price index in March, the largest in over three years, driven by an 8.5% surge in energy prices due to the Iran war. This heightened inflation concerns and influenced market prices, especially for inflation above 4% and 5%.

March 2026 CPI rises 0.9%, higher monthly increase but inflation still moderate

Above 6% jumps to 12%5%

The BLS reported a 0.9% seasonally adjusted increase in CPI for March 2026, a higher monthly rise than previous months but still within moderate inflation levels. This caused some short-term market uncertainty but did not significantly raise probabilities for very high inflation outcomes.

Inflation slightly accelerates at start of 2026 driven by rising services costs

Above 6% plunges to 10%37%

Early 2026 data showed inflation remaining persistent with core CPI rising, driven by services costs, indicating that inflation pressures were not abating as quickly as hoped, affecting market inflation expectations.

Popular super greens supplement recalled amid salmonella outbreak

Above 4% surges to 33%18%

The recall of a popular dietary supplement due to salmonella contamination raised concerns about food safety and potential impacts on food prices, contributing to inflation uncertainty and affecting market inflation expectations.

March 2026 CPI inflation rises 3.3% year-over-year amid energy price surge

Above 6% rises to 14%4%

The March 2026 CPI report showed a 3.3% annual increase, driven largely by a 21.2% surge in gasoline prices due to the Iran conflict. This spike raised inflation concerns and increased market probabilities for higher inflation outcomes.

IMF warns Middle East conflict could push global inflation higher

Above 6% dips to 5%2%

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict could increase global inflation by 40 basis points if oil prices rise persistently by 10%, highlighting risks of sustained inflationary pressures from energy shocks.

US-Israel airstrikes on Iran escalate conflict, disrupting oil supply routes

The 2026 Iran conflict began with US-Israel airstrikes targeting Iranian leadership and military infrastructure, including the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader. This escalated tensions, disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route, and caused oil prices to surge sharply, increasing inflationary pressures globally.

U.S. and Israel launch Operation Epic Fury military strikes against Iran

Above 6% plunges to 10%37%

The U.S. and Israel initiated a large-scale military campaign targeting Iran's missile and nuclear infrastructure, escalating geopolitical tensions and contributing to rising energy prices that significantly impacted inflation expectations in 2026.

Iran conflict begins, pushing energy prices higher

Above 4.5% surges to 58%39%

The outbreak of the Iran conflict in late February 2026 caused a sharp increase in global energy prices, which significantly contributed to rising inflation in the U.S. This geopolitical event heightened inflation expectations and led to increased consumer price index readings in subsequent months.

US and Israel launch operations against Iran, closing Strait of Hormuz and spiking oil prices

Above 8% plunges to 9%29%

The conflict in the Middle East escalated with US and Israeli operations against Iran, leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which disrupted about 20% of global oil supply. This caused a sharp rise in gasoline prices, significantly impacting inflation expectations and pushing CPI forecasts higher.

Iran war drives up U.S. wholesale energy prices sharply

Above 4% rises to 15%3%

The ongoing war in Iran caused energy prices to surge, pushing wholesale prices up 4% year-over-year in March 2026. This increase in energy costs contributed to inflationary pressures, raising market expectations for inflation outcomes above 4%.

January 2026 BLS report shows employment up and inflation down

Above 5% drops to 9%10%

The BLS January 2026 reports showed stronger-than-expected job growth and a cooling inflation rate to 2.4%, signaling economic stabilization. This positive labor market data combined with easing inflation reduced market expectations for high inflation outcomes.

January 2026 CPI rises 0.2% amid cheaper gasoline and moderated rental inflation

Above 8% dips to 5%2%

January CPI data showed a 0.2% monthly increase with underlying inflation pressures warming due to start-of-year price increases in services. Cheaper gasoline and moderated rental inflation tempered headline inflation, impacting market inflation expectations downward.

January 2026 CPI report shows modest inflation increase of 0.2%

The January 2026 CPI report indicated a 0.2% seasonally adjusted increase in consumer prices, signaling ongoing inflationary pressures early in the year. This data contributed to market expectations of persistent inflation and cautious Federal Reserve policy.

January 2026 CPI report shows 2.4% annual inflation amid tariff pressures

Above 5% drops to 8%11%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 2.4% increase in the Consumer Price Index over the last 12 months in January 2026, with tariffs imposed by the Trump administration contributing to upward price pressures. Inflation remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, setting the stage for cautious monetary policy.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid elevated inflation

Above 5% drops to 13%6%

The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged in March 2026, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation remaining above target and uncertainty in economic growth. This cautious stance influenced market expectations, tempering probabilities for inflation exceeding higher thresholds.

January 2026 CPI shows 0.2% monthly increase, inflation remains moderate

Above 5% dips to 10%2%

The BLS released January 2026 CPI data showing a 0.2% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis, indicating continued moderate inflation. This data supported market views that inflation was not accelerating sharply, keeping probabilities for inflation above higher thresholds low.

BLS reports January 2026 CPI increase of 0.2% monthly

January 2026 CPI data showed a 0.2% monthly increase, with inflation pressures remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This suggested ongoing inflation persistence, supporting cautious Fed policy and market expectations for inflation above 4.5%.

January 2026 CPI shows slower annual inflation at 2.4%

Above 4.5% jumps to 59%9%

The January 2026 CPI report revealed a slower annual inflation rate of 2.4%, down from previous months, providing hope for easing inflation but with continued pressures from shelter and food costs. This contributed to market optimism about inflation cooling but uncertainty remained.

February 2026 CPI shows slight monthly inflation increase to 2.4% annual rate

Above 5% dips to 7%2%

February CPI data indicated a 0.3% monthly rise and a 2.4% annual inflation rate, reflecting moderate but persistent inflation pressures, which kept market inflation expectations elevated in early 2026.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid inflation concerns

Above 5% rises to 12%3%

The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged in February 2026, reflecting ongoing inflation above target and uncertainty about economic growth. This cautious stance contributed to market expectations that inflation would remain above moderate thresholds but unlikely to spike above 6%.

US Consumer Price Index edges higher in February 2026

Above 4.5% drops to 9%10%

February 2026 CPI data showed a 0.3% monthly increase and a 2.4% annual inflation rate, reflecting moderate but persistent inflation pressures, especially in food prices. This contributed to market uncertainty about inflation trends in early 2026.

Federal Reserve Official Signals Interest Rates Could Remain Steady for Long Time

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that the Fed sees no urgent need to change interest rates in 2026, emphasizing patience and assessment of previous rate cuts. This reinforced market expectations of stable rates and moderated inflation concerns.

Federal Reserve official signals interest rates could remain steady for a long time

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that the Fed sees no urgent need to change rates in 2026, supporting the view of stable monetary policy and contributing to lower inflation expectations.

January 2026 CPI report shows inflation easing to 2.4% annual rate

Above 4.5% drops to 13%6%

The January CPI report revealed a slower annual inflation rate of 2.4%, down from previous months, signaling early signs of inflation cooling and boosting optimism for potential Fed rate cuts. This report influenced market expectations for inflation staying below higher thresholds.

President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair

Above 5% drops to 14%5%

President Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, signaling potential shifts in monetary policy. Warsh's hawkish reputation initially triggered risk-off flows, impacting market expectations for inflation and interest rates.

Federal Reserve maintains interest rates amid inflation concerns

The Federal Reserve's FOMC decided to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, balancing solid economic growth with elevated inflation risks. The decision reflected uncertainty in the economic outlook and a commitment to monitor inflation and employment data closely, influencing market expectations for inflation outcomes.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid mixed economic signals

The Federal Reserve's FOMC decided to keep the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing solid economic growth but persistent inflation concerns. The decision was not unanimous, with some members favoring rate cuts, reflecting uncertainty about inflation's trajectory. This cautious stance set the tone for inflation expectations early in 2026.

Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady at 3.75%

Above 4.5% drops to 13%6%

The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% in January 2026, signaling a cautious approach as inflation remained above target but showed signs of moderation. This decision influenced market expectations by maintaining borrowing costs and reflecting uncertainty about inflation's trajectory.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid elevated inflation

Above 5% drops to 9%10%

The Federal Reserve's FOMC decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, acknowledging solid economic growth but persistent inflation above the 2% target. This cautious stance influenced market inflation expectations, signaling no immediate aggressive tightening.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%

Above 6% plunges to 10%37%

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate in January 2026, signaling a cautious approach amid persistent inflation, which affected market expectations for inflation and interest rate trajectories.

Fed holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid inflation concerns

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, citing persistent inflation and a stabilizing labor market. Chair Powell emphasized data dependency for future decisions, signaling no immediate rate cuts.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in first 2026 meeting

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, reflecting a cautious approach amid persistent inflation above target and mixed economic signals early in 2026.

Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady amid ongoing inflation concerns

The Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates at 3.5% to 3.75% in its first 2026 meeting, signaling a cautious approach as inflation remained elevated and economic growth was moderate. This decision reflected the Fed's balancing act between controlling inflation and supporting employment, impacting market expectations for inflation outcomes.

Labor Department delays January jobs report due to government shutdown

Above 4% dips to 9%3%

The partial federal government shutdown delayed the release of the January 2026 jobs report, creating uncertainty about labor market conditions. This uncertainty contributed to volatility in inflation expectations, as labor market strength influences inflation dynamics.

January 2026 CPI report shows early signs of inflation cooling

Above 4.5% drops to 13%6%

The January 2026 Consumer Price Index report indicated a modest 0.2% monthly increase, signaling initial optimism that inflation pressures might be easing, which influenced market expectations for inflation staying below extreme levels.

Consumer spending drives U.S. economy growth at fastest pace in two years

Above 4% surges to 33%19%

The Commerce Department reported a 4.4% annualized GDP growth rate in Q3 2025, driven by strong consumer spending. Despite solid growth, inflation remained elevated, influencing market expectations that inflation would stay above 4%.

US voters overwhelmingly oppose taking Greenland by military force

Above 4% dips to 12%2%

Polls revealed nearly 9 in 10 Americans opposed military action to acquire Greenland, reflecting geopolitical tensions and uncertainty. While not directly linked to inflation, such geopolitical risks can influence energy prices and inflation expectations, indirectly affecting market pricing for inflation outcomes.

BLS reports stable 2.7% annual CPI inflation for December 2025

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing the Consumer Price Index held steady at 2.7% year-over-year for December 2025, indicating persistent but moderate inflation. This set the baseline for inflation expectations entering 2026.

January 2026 CPI data shows inflation steady at 2.7% year-over-year

The January 2026 CPI report indicated persistent inflation at 2.7% annually, with core CPI slightly below expectations. Shelter and food costs remained key inflation drivers, maintaining pressure on household budgets and influencing market inflation expectations.

December 2025 CPI confirms inflation steady at 2.7% amid ongoing price pressures

Above 6% plunges to 3%44%

The December 2025 CPI report showed inflation holding steady at 2.7% year-over-year, with shelter costs rising and food prices elevated. This reinforced the view that inflation remained persistent but moderate, supporting market expectations that inflation would not exceed higher thresholds like 6% or 8%.

BLS reports US inflation steady at 2.7% year-over-year in December 2025

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing the Consumer Price Index holding steady at 2.7% annual inflation for December 2025, indicating persistent but moderate inflation pressures heading into 2026. This set the baseline for market expectations of inflation in the coming year.

January 2026 CPI shows inflation steady at 2.7% year-over-year

Above 4.5% dips to 15%4%

The BLS reported that the CPI for January 2026 remained steady at 2.7% annual inflation, with core CPI slightly below expectations. Shelter and food costs continued to drive inflation, maintaining pressure on household budgets and influencing market inflation expectations.

BLS reports stable 2.7% CPI inflation for December 2025

Above 4.5% jumps to 57%7%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing the CPI held steady at 2.7% year-over-year for December 2025, indicating persistent inflation pressures especially in shelter and food costs, which influenced market expectations for inflation in early 2026.

US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports stable 2.7% CPI for December 2025

Above 5% dips to 16%3%

The BLS released data showing the Consumer Price Index held steady at 2.7% year-over-year for December 2025, indicating persistent but moderate inflation pressures at the start of 2026, which tempered market expectations for rapid inflation increases.

US inflation steady at 2.7% year-over-year in December 2025

The BLS reported December 2025 CPI inflation steady at 2.7%, with core inflation slightly below expectations. This indicated persistent but moderate inflation pressures, influencing cautious Fed policy and market inflation expectations.

January 2026 CPI report shows inflation easing to 2.4% annual rate

The January 2026 Consumer Price Index report revealed a slower annual inflation rate of 2.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from the prior month, signaling early signs of inflation cooling. This report boosted market optimism about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year.

BLS cancels October 2025 CPI report due to government shutdown data gaps

Above 4.5% drops to 13%6%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced it could not publish the October 2025 CPI report because the government shutdown prevented data collection, creating uncertainty in inflation data continuity and affecting market confidence in inflation forecasts.

BLS reports January 2026 CPI increase of 0.2% month-over-month

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the January 2026 Consumer Price Index showing a 0.2% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis, indicating persistent but moderate inflation early in the year. This data influenced market expectations for inflation exceeding 4.5% and 5% thresholds, contributing to initial price levels in the market.

December 2025 CPI inflation steady at 2.7%, as expected

Above 4.5% dips to 7%2%

The BLS reported December 2025 CPI inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, unchanged from November, confirming the persistence of moderate inflation. This steady reading maintained market expectations that inflation would not spike, contributing to continued low probabilities for very high inflation outcomes.

BLS reports December 2025 CPI steady at 2.7% annual inflation with core CPI at 2.6%

Above 4.5% dips to 16%3%

The December 2025 CPI report showed inflation holding steady at 2.7% year-over-year, with core CPI slightly below expectations at 2.6%. Shelter costs remained a major inflation driver, maintaining pressure on household budgets. This report reinforced the view of persistent but moderate inflation heading into 2026.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports December 2025 CPI steady at 2.7%

The BLS released data showing the Consumer Price Index for December 2025 held steady at 2.7% year-over-year, indicating persistent but moderate inflation. This report influenced market expectations for inflation staying below higher thresholds in 2026.

BLS reports US CPI steady at 2.7% for December 2025

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released December 2025 CPI data showing inflation steady at 2.7% year-over-year, with shelter and food costs rising and energy prices moderating. This indicated persistent inflation pressures heading into 2026, influencing market expectations for inflation staying above the Fed's target.

December 2025 CPI shows 2.7% annual inflation with rising shelter and food costs

The BLS reported a 0.3% monthly increase in December 2025 CPI, with a 2.7% annual rise driven by shelter and food price increases, sustaining moderate inflation expectations in the market.

December 2025 CPI report confirms inflation steady at 2.7%

The December 2025 CPI report showed annual inflation steady at 2.7%, consistent with November's reading, indicating inflation remained above the Fed's 2% target but without further acceleration. This report helped clarify inflation trends after the disrupted data in late 2025.

US Consumer Price Index holds steady at 2.7% year-over-year in December 2025

The BLS reported that the CPI for December 2025 remained at 2.7%, with core CPI slightly below expectations, indicating persistent inflation pressures especially from shelter and food costs. This data set the tone for inflation expectations entering 2026, supporting cautious Federal Reserve policy.

January 2026 CPI shows inflation steady at 2.7% year-over-year

Above 5% drops to 8%11%

The CPI report for January 2026 indicated persistent inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, with core inflation slightly below expectations. Shelter and food costs remained key inflation drivers, maintaining pressure on household budgets and influencing market inflation expectations.

US annual inflation steady at 2.7% in December 2025, easing concerns of spike

The final Consumer Price Index report for 2025 showed inflation at 2.7% year-over-year in December, consistent with November and below earlier peaks. This steady but elevated inflation data reassured markets that inflation would not spike above higher thresholds in 2026, contributing to price declines for 'Above 6%', 'Above 8%', and 'Above 10%' outcomes.

BLS releases January 2026 CPI data showing moderate inflation

Above 8% plunges to 5%33%

The January 2026 CPI report showed a 0.2% monthly increase and continued moderate inflation, supporting market views that inflation would remain below high thresholds throughout 2026, further reducing prices for outcomes above 8% and 10%.

December 2025 CPI steady at 2.7%, core inflation at 2.6%

December CPI data showed inflation holding steady at 2.7% year-over-year, with core inflation slightly below expectations, indicating persistent but moderate inflation pressures at the start of 2026.

December 2025 CPI holds at 2.7 % YoY, unchanged from November

Above 5% dips to 7%1%

The BLS released the December 2025 CPI (published Jan 13, 2026) with inflation unchanged at 2.7 % YoY. The lack of any increase reignited expectations of continued disinflation, driving the "Above 5%" and "Above 6%" odds down to single‑digit levels (e.g., 7 % on 2026‑01‑18).

December 2025 CPI report shows inflation at 2.6% annual rate

The December 2025 CPI report indicated inflation slowing to 2.6% annually, below expectations, reinforcing hopes that inflation was tempering as the Federal Reserve contemplated its next interest rate moves. This report suggested inflation was moving closer to target but remained elevated, influencing market expectations for Fed policy.

BLS reports steady 2.7% annual inflation for December 2025

Above 10% drops to 5%10%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released December 2025 CPI data showing inflation steady at 2.7% year-over-year, with core CPI slightly below expectations. This indicated persistent but moderate inflation pressures heading into 2026, influencing market expectations for inflation outcomes.

San Diego records second-highest inflation rate in US at 4% in November 2025

Regional inflation data from San Diego showed elevated inflation at 4% in November 2025, higher than the national average. This localized inflation pressure highlighted uneven inflation but did not reverse the overall market trend toward lower inflation expectations for 2026.

Experts weigh in on 2026 inflation outlook amid mixed economic signals

Analysts presented contrasting views on 2026 inflation, with some expecting moderation due to slower growth and softer labor markets, while others warned of persistent or rising inflation driven by labor shortages and fiscal deficits. This set the stage for market uncertainty about inflation trajectories.

November 2025 CPI report shows inflation at 2.7% annual rate

The delayed November 2025 CPI report indicated a 2.7% year-over-year inflation rate, lower than expected, but the report was considered noisy and potentially inaccurate due to missing October data, affecting market inflation expectations.

BLS releases November 2025 CPI report showing 2.7% annual inflation

Above 5% drops to 14%5%

The November 2025 CPI report showed inflation easing to 2.7% year-over-year, lower than expected, but the data was incomplete due to the missing October report, leading to cautious market reactions and uncertainty about the true inflation trend.

BLS releases November 2025 CPI data after government shutdown delay

Above 6% dips to 6%4%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the delayed November 2025 CPI report, showing a 0.2% increase over two months and clarifying inflation trends. This data helped markets adjust inflation expectations downward, impacting prices for higher inflation outcomes.

Delayed November 2025 CPI report shows inflation lower than expected at 2.7% annual rate

Above 4.5% drops to 9%10%

The BLS released the November 2025 CPI report with incomplete month-to-month data due to the prior shutdown, showing a 2.7% year-over-year inflation rate, lower than forecasts. This report tempered market inflation expectations and introduced caution due to data quality concerns.

November 2025 CPI report shows inflation cooling to 2.7% amid data gaps

Above 6% dips to 6%4%

The November CPI report indicated a 2.7% year-over-year inflation rate, lower than expected, but the data was affected by missing October figures due to the shutdown, leading to market uncertainty about inflation trends.

November 2025 CPI report shows inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, lower than expected

Above 5% drops to 13%6%

The BLS released the November 2025 CPI report showing a 2.7% annual inflation rate, down from 3.0% in September, but the report was incomplete due to missing October data, causing market uncertainty about inflation trends.

Investors react positively to November CPI report despite data flaws

Above 4.5% plunges to 25%25%

Despite significant data gaps and potential inaccuracies in the November CPI report caused by the October government shutdown, investors cheered the lower-than-expected inflation reading, leading to market optimism and price movements in inflation-related markets.

November 2025 CPI reports 2.7% annual inflation amid data collection gaps

Above 6% dips to 3%1%

The BLS reported a 0.2% increase over two months from September to November 2025, with a 2.7% annual rise, noting data collection gaps due to federal government appropriations lapse, which maintained market expectations of moderate inflation.

November 2025 CPI report shows inflation cooling despite government shutdown data gaps

Above 4.5% plunges to 20%30%

The BLS released the November 2025 CPI report indicating inflation slowed to 2.7% year-over-year, with shelter costs decelerating and energy prices volatile but not structurally high. The report was affected by missing October data due to the government shutdown, causing some uncertainty, but overall confirmed a durable disinflation trend, influencing market expectations downward for inflation exceeding 4.5% and 5%.

BLS reports November 2025 CPI inflation at 2.7%, lower than expected

Above 4.5% drops to 9%10%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November 2025 CPI report showing inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, below forecasts and indicating a cooling inflation environment. This report ended a data drought caused by a government shutdown and reassured markets that inflation pressures were easing, leading to a drop in market prices for higher inflation outcomes.

US November 2025 CPI inflation report shows cooling to 2.7% amid data gaps

Above 4.5% drops to 14%5%

The November 2025 CPI report showed headline inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, below expectations, but the data was affected by the October government shutdown which led to missing month-over-month data and potential underestimation of inflation, especially in shelter costs. This report influenced market expectations for easing inflation in early 2026.

BLS reports November 2025 inflation rate at 2.7%, lower than expected

Above 6% plunges to 10%37%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November 2025 CPI report showing inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, down from 3.0% in September, signaling easing inflation pressures and contributing to a decline in market prices for higher inflation outcomes.

November 2025 CPI shows 2.7 % YoY inflation, lower than expected

Above 5% dips to 8%1%

The BLS released the first post‑shutdown CPI for November 2025, showing headline inflation at 2.7 % YoY – well below forecasts. The softer number caused the "Above 5%" contract to fall further (from 9 % on 2025‑12‑01 to 8 % on 2025‑12‑27) and pushed "Above 6%" down sharply.

BLS releases November 2025 CPI report with incomplete data due to October shutdown

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the November 2025 CPI report without month-over-month changes for November in categories relying on missing October data, creating uncertainty about inflation trends and causing market skepticism about the accuracy of inflation readings.

Fed to keep policy rate steady after latest CPI readings

Above 8% dips to 5%2%

The Fed signaled it would hold rates steady at its Jan‑28/29 meeting, citing the recent noisy CPI data. The expectation of a pause removed upside‑inflation risk, causing "Above 8%" to dip from 7 % to 5 % by 2025‑12‑23.

Treasury unveils modest tax‑rebate plan to boost consumer spending

Above 5% dips to 9%1%

The Treasury released a mid‑year fiscal plan that projected modest tax rebates, easing consumer pressure. The news briefly lifted optimism for a slower‑inflation path, lowering "Above 5%" to 9 % on 2025‑12‑10.

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points amid economic concerns

The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate to 3.50%-3.75%, the third consecutive cut in 2025, aiming to support the economy amid mixed inflation and labor market signals. This move was met with market optimism but highlighted ongoing inflation challenges.

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to 3.5%-3.75% range, signals cautious 2026 outlook

Above 6% drops to 6%6%

The Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in December 2025, marking the third cut that year, reflecting concerns about a weakening labor market despite inflation remaining above target. This policy easing signaled expectations of moderate inflation and influenced market pricing for inflation above 6%, 8%, and 10%.

Government shutdown disrupts October CPI data, raising concerns about inflation measurement

Above 6% plunges to 10%37%

The US government shutdown led to the Bureau of Labor Statistics not publishing October CPI data, causing reliance on imputed data and raising concerns about the reliability of inflation figures in late 2025. This uncertainty affected market expectations for inflation in early 2026.

BLS reports 2.7% year-over-year CPI increase for December 2025

Above 4.5% plunges to 20%30%

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the December 2025 CPI report showing a 2.7% increase over the prior year, with shelter, food, and energy contributing to the rise. This moderate inflation reading tempered market expectations for very high inflation in 2026, leading to a decline in prices for outcomes above 4.5% and 5%.

December 2025 CPI report shows inflation steady at 2.7% year-over-year

Above 6% plunges to 3%44%

The December 2025 CPI report confirmed inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, with food prices rising 3.1% and energy prices increasing 2.3%. This steady inflation rate reinforced market expectations that inflation would not exceed higher thresholds in 2026, contributing to price declines for outcomes above 6%, 8%, and 10%.

Grocery price inflation surges with fastest monthly pace since 2022

Above 4.5% jumps to 56%6%

Government data showed food prices rising sharply, with coffee and ground beef prices up nearly 20% and 15.5% respectively year-over-year in December. This defied claims of falling grocery prices and contributed to inflation concerns, supporting market prices for inflation above 4.5% and 5%.

Government shutdown delays January jobs report and other economic data

Above 4% dips to 14%4%

The partial federal government shutdown delayed the release of key economic data including the January jobs report, creating uncertainty about the labor market and inflation trends. This delay contributed to market volatility and cautious inflation expectations.

Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge ticks up in November

Above 4% surges to 33%19%

Consumer prices rose 2.8% in November 2025 from a year earlier, slightly higher than October's 2.7%, indicating inflation remained stubbornly elevated. This data reassured the Fed about the economy's solid footing but suggested inflation would stay above target, supporting higher inflation market prices.

US inflation rate rises slightly to 3% in September 2025, highest since January

Above 6% plunges to 12%35%

The U.S. inflation rate increased modestly to 3% in September 2025, signaling persistent inflation pressures. This data contributed to initial higher market pricing for inflation above 6%, 8%, and 10% before subsequent Fed rate cuts and economic reports tempered expectations.

US Bureau of Labor Statistics cancels October CPI report due to government shutdown

Above 6% plunges to 10%37%

The BLS canceled the October 2025 CPI report because the government shutdown prevented data collection, causing November's CPI report to be incomplete and potentially inaccurate. This uncertainty led to market skepticism about inflation data reliability, affecting inflation expectations.

US cancels October CPI report due to government shutdown

Above 4.5% dips to 15%4%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled the release of the October 2025 CPI report because the government shutdown prevented data collection. This cancellation created a data gap that affected subsequent inflation reporting and market expectations.

BLS cancels October 2025 CPI report due to government shutdown

Above 5% drops to 13%6%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the cancellation of the October 2025 CPI report because the federal government shutdown prevented data collection, creating a gap in official inflation statistics and uncertainty in inflation measurement.

BLS cancels October 2025 CPI report due to government shutdown

The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the cancellation of the October 2025 CPI report because the federal government shutdown prevented data collection, creating a gap in official inflation statistics and uncertainty in inflation measurement.

US Bureau of Labor Statistics cancels October CPI report due to government shutdown

Above 4.5% jumps to 59%9%

The BLS announced it could not collect October 2025 CPI data because of the government shutdown, leading to cancellation of the October CPI report and incomplete data for November. This caused uncertainty and skepticism about inflation data accuracy, impacting market confidence in inflation forecasts.

BLS cancels October 2025 CPI report due to government shutdown

The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the cancellation of the October 2025 CPI report because the government shutdown prevented data collection, creating a gap in official inflation statistics and increasing uncertainty about inflation trends.

US Bureau of Labor Statistics cancels October 2025 CPI report due to government shutdown

The BLS announced the cancellation of the October 2025 CPI report because the government shutdown prevented data collection, causing significant data gaps and uncertainty in inflation measurement. This event led to market caution and affected inflation expectations for late 2025 and early 2026.

Trump administration rolls out new tariffs on consumer goods

Above 10% drops to 15%5%

The administration announced new tariffs on imported appliances, furniture and vehicles. Analysts warned that such tariffs could add upward pressure to CPI components, briefly lifting the "Above 10%" probability (from 20 % to 15 % on 2025‑11‑27).

BLS releases November 2025 CPI report showing 2.7% annual inflation amid data gaps

Above 6% plunges to 10%37%

The November 2025 CPI report was the first after the October government shutdown, which caused missing data and potential inaccuracies. The report showed inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, lower than expected, but with caveats about data quality. This led to market uncertainty about inflation trends going into 2026.

Federal government shutdown causes cancellation of October 2025 CPI data collection

Above 4.5% dips to 16%3%

The BLS announced it could not collect October 2025 CPI data due to the federal government shutdown, leading to missing monthly inflation data and increased uncertainty in inflation measurement and market expectations.

U.S. Government Shutdown Causes Cancellation of October 2025 CPI Report

Above 4.5% drops to 13%6%

The federal government shutdown in October 2025 prevented the Bureau of Labor Statistics from collecting CPI data, leading to the cancellation of the October CPI report and creating uncertainty in inflation measurement for that period. This disruption affected market confidence and contributed to volatility in inflation expectations.

BLS releases November 2025 CPI report showing 2.7% annual inflation amid government shutdown data gaps

Above 5% drops to 13%6%

The November 2025 CPI report showed inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, lower than expected, but was affected by missing October data due to a government shutdown, causing uncertainty in inflation trends and market reactions.

Wholesale prices surge 4% amid Iran war energy price spike

Above 4% plunges to 18%29%

The Iran war caused energy prices to soar, pushing U.S. wholesale prices up 4% year-over-year in March 2025, the largest increase in over three years. This surge in wholesale prices signaled inflationary pressures that influenced market expectations for higher inflation in 2026, particularly affecting the 'Above 4%' and 'Above 6%' outcomes.