Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term, driven by the Fed's April 28-29, 2026, decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid an 8-2 vote split—the most divided since 1992—signaling internal debate over persistent inflation pressures. April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, up from 3.3% in March with a 0.6% monthly surge, prompting CME FedWatch to price a roughly 37% chance of a hike before year-end and just 2.3% odds of action at the June 16-17 FOMC. Strong Q1 GDP growth at 2.0% annualized and resilient labor data further anchor expectations for steady policy, though upcoming May nonfarm payrolls and PCE inflation releases could shift market-implied paths if upside surprises emerge.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$148,117 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
2%
July Meeting
6%
September Meeting
19%
October Meeting
29%
$148,117 Обс.
June Meeting
$14,531 Обс.
2%
July Meeting
$770 Обс.
6%
September Meeting
$54 Обс.
19%
October Meeting
$1,454 Обс.
29%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term, driven by the Fed's April 28-29, 2026, decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid an 8-2 vote split—the most divided since 1992—signaling internal debate over persistent inflation pressures. April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, up from 3.3% in March with a 0.6% monthly surge, prompting CME FedWatch to price a roughly 37% chance of a hike before year-end and just 2.3% odds of action at the June 16-17 FOMC. Strong Q1 GDP growth at 2.0% annualized and resilient labor data further anchor expectations for steady policy, though upcoming May nonfarm payrolls and PCE inflation releases could shift market-implied paths if upside surprises emerge.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Обсяг
$148,117Дата завершення
Oct 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term, driven by the Fed's April 28-29, 2026, decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid an 8-2 vote split—the most divided since 1992—signaling internal debate over persistent inflation pressures. April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, up from 3.3% in March with a 0.6% monthly surge, prompting CME FedWatch to price a roughly 37% chance of a hike before year-end and just 2.3% odds of action at the June 16-17 FOMC. Strong Q1 GDP growth at 2.0% annualized and resilient labor data further anchor expectations for steady policy, though upcoming May nonfarm payrolls and PCE inflation releases could shift market-implied paths if upside surprises emerge.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$148,117Дата завершення
Oct 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term, driven by the Fed's April 28-29, 2026, decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid an 8-2 vote split—the most divided since 1992—signaling internal debate over persistent inflation pressures. April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, up from 3.3% in March with a 0.6% monthly surge, prompting CME FedWatch to price a roughly 37% chance of a hike before year-end and just 2.3% odds of action at the June 16-17 FOMC. Strong Q1 GDP growth at 2.0% annualized and resilient labor data further anchor expectations for steady policy, though upcoming May nonfarm payrolls and PCE inflation releases could shift market-implied paths if upside surprises emerge.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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