Elevated inflation pressures, including upward revisions to core PCE forecasts and a surge in oil prices amid U.S.-Iran tensions, have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% through the September FOMC meeting. The June unanimous hold and July 9-3 decision to pause reinforced this path, with dissents highlighting hawkish concerns yet still leaving the committee focused on data-dependent patience rather than easing. Market-implied odds for consecutive pauses reflect the absence of sufficiently cooling inflation or labor market signals to justify cuts, while the slim probability of a September reduction aligns with forward-looking projections from Goldman Sachs and others deferring easing until 2027. The September 15-16 meeting, featuring updated economic projections and a revised dot plot, remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift these probabilities based on incoming employment and inflation releases.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 68%
Other 35%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$728,440 Обс.
$728,440 Обс.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
68%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
35%
Pause–Pause–Pause 68%
Other 35%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$728,440 Обс.
$728,440 Обс.
Sep 16, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$289,675 Обс.
68%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$70,408 Обс.
1%
Other
$312,480 Обс.
35%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation pressures, including upward revisions to core PCE forecasts and a surge in oil prices amid U.S.-Iran tensions, have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% through the September FOMC meeting. The June unanimous hold and July 9-3 decision to pause reinforced this path, with dissents highlighting hawkish concerns yet still leaving the committee focused on data-dependent patience rather than easing. Market-implied odds for consecutive pauses reflect the absence of sufficiently cooling inflation or labor market signals to justify cuts, while the slim probability of a September reduction aligns with forward-looking projections from Goldman Sachs and others deferring easing until 2027. The September 15-16 meeting, featuring updated economic projections and a revised dot plot, remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift these probabilities based on incoming employment and inflation releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Обсяг
$728,440Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation pressures, including upward revisions to core PCE forecasts and a surge in oil prices amid U.S.-Iran tensions, have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% through the September FOMC meeting. The June unanimous hold and July 9-3 decision to pause reinforced this path, with dissents highlighting hawkish concerns yet still leaving the committee focused on data-dependent patience rather than easing. Market-implied odds for consecutive pauses reflect the absence of sufficiently cooling inflation or labor market signals to justify cuts, while the slim probability of a September reduction aligns with forward-looking projections from Goldman Sachs and others deferring easing until 2027. The September 15-16 meeting, featuring updated economic projections and a revised dot plot, remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift these probabilities based on incoming employment and inflation releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$728,440Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation pressures, including upward revisions to core PCE forecasts and a surge in oil prices amid U.S.-Iran tensions, have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% through the September FOMC meeting. The June unanimous hold and July 9-3 decision to pause reinforced this path, with dissents highlighting hawkish concerns yet still leaving the committee focused on data-dependent patience rather than easing. Market-implied odds for consecutive pauses reflect the absence of sufficiently cooling inflation or labor market signals to justify cuts, while the slim probability of a September reduction aligns with forward-looking projections from Goldman Sachs and others deferring easing until 2027. The September 15-16 meeting, featuring updated economic projections and a revised dot plot, remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift these probabilities based on incoming employment and inflation releases.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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