Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 93.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady rates across its April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings—reflecting the April 28-29 pause at 3.50%-3.75% amid elevated inflation and resilient labor conditions. The April CPI surged 3.8% year-over-year, the hottest since May 2023 and up from March's 3.3%, while nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with unemployment holding at 4.3%; these data underscore sticky price pressures and economic strength, tempering rate-cut expectations despite some April dissent for easing. Hawkish FOMC rhetoric reinforced this positioning. Scenarios challenging the status quo include softer May CPI on June 10 or weakening June 16-17 jobs data ahead of that meeting's Summary of Economic Projections.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоPause–Pause–Pause 94%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.9%
Other 3.2%
Pause–Cut–Cut <1%
$48,711 Обс.
$48,711 Обс.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
94%
Pause–Pause–Cut
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause 94%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.9%
Other 3.2%
Pause–Cut–Cut <1%
$48,711 Обс.
$48,711 Обс.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,308 Обс.
94%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,636 Обс.
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,567 Обс.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,620 Обс.
1%
Other
$1,595 Обс.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 93.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady rates across its April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings—reflecting the April 28-29 pause at 3.50%-3.75% amid elevated inflation and resilient labor conditions. The April CPI surged 3.8% year-over-year, the hottest since May 2023 and up from March's 3.3%, while nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with unemployment holding at 4.3%; these data underscore sticky price pressures and economic strength, tempering rate-cut expectations despite some April dissent for easing. Hawkish FOMC rhetoric reinforced this positioning. Scenarios challenging the status quo include softer May CPI on June 10 or weakening June 16-17 jobs data ahead of that meeting's Summary of Economic Projections.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$48,711Дата завершення
Jul 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 93.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady rates across its April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings—reflecting the April 28-29 pause at 3.50%-3.75% amid elevated inflation and resilient labor conditions. The April CPI surged 3.8% year-over-year, the hottest since May 2023 and up from March's 3.3%, while nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with unemployment holding at 4.3%; these data underscore sticky price pressures and economic strength, tempering rate-cut expectations despite some April dissent for easing. Hawkish FOMC rhetoric reinforced this positioning. Scenarios challenging the status quo include softer May CPI on June 10 or weakening June 16-17 jobs data ahead of that meeting's Summary of Economic Projections.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$48,711Дата завершення
Jul 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 93.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady rates across its April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings—reflecting the April 28-29 pause at 3.50%-3.75% amid elevated inflation and resilient labor conditions. The April CPI surged 3.8% year-over-year, the hottest since May 2023 and up from March's 3.3%, while nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs with unemployment holding at 4.3%; these data underscore sticky price pressures and economic strength, tempering rate-cut expectations despite some April dissent for easing. Hawkish FOMC rhetoric reinforced this positioning. Scenarios challenging the status quo include softer May CPI on June 10 or weakening June 16-17 jobs data ahead of that meeting's Summary of Economic Projections.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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