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icon for Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?
Політика·Тарифи Fed

Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?

icon for Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?
Політика·Тарифи Fed

Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?

3,75% 41.1%

4,0% 26.9%

4,25% 15.6%

3,5% 9.0%

Polymarket

$6,760,419 Обс.

3,75% 41.1%

4,0% 26.9%

4,25% 15.6%

3,5% 9.0%

Polymarket

$6,760,419 Обс.

≤1,0%

$244,168 Обс.

<1%

1,25

$142,756 Обс.

1%

1,5%

$145,909 Обс.

1%

1,75%

$148,083 Обс.

<1%

2,0%

$263,332 Обс.

<1%

2,25%

$87,683 Обс.

<1%

2,5%

$172,865 Обс.

1%

2,75%

$60,980 Обс.

1%

3,0%

$488,822 Обс.

1%

3,25%

$66,074 Обс.

1%

3,5%

$202,467 Обс.

9%

3,75%

$531,856 Обс.

41%

4,0%

$1,369,292 Обс.

27%

4,25%

$428,167 Обс.

16%

≥ 4,5%

$2,407,967 Обс.

5%

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a divided FOMC have shifted trader expectations toward holding or modestly tightening policy through year-end 2026.** The current federal funds rate target range stands at 3.50–3.75% after multiple holds in 2026, following three quarter-point cuts in late 2025. July CPI data showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while a soft July jobs report indicated unexpected payroll declines, yet unemployment remained relatively stable. The June 2026 FOMC dot plot revealed a hawkish tilt, with nine participants projecting at least one rate hike by year-end and a median path pointing toward 3.75–4.00%. Dissenting votes in the July meeting (9-3 to hold) underscored internal pressure for tightening amid supply shocks, including energy prices, and resilient growth. Fed funds futures have priced in a higher probability of hikes by December, reflecting trader consensus that the central bank may need to act to anchor longer-term inflation expectations. Upcoming September, October, and December meetings remain key catalysts, with outcomes hinging on incoming inflation, labor, and growth data. The leading Polymarket probabilities around 3.75% and 4.0% capture this balance between cooling demand signals and the need to address above-target price pressures.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Обсяг
$6,760,419
Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a divided FOMC have shifted trader expectations toward holding or modestly tightening policy through year-end 2026.** The current federal funds rate target range stands at 3.50–3.75% after multiple holds in 2026, following three quarter-point cuts in late 2025. July CPI data showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while a soft July jobs report indicated unexpected payroll declines, yet unemployment remained relatively stable. The June 2026 FOMC dot plot revealed a hawkish tilt, with nine participants projecting at least one rate hike by year-end and a median path pointing toward 3.75–4.00%. Dissenting votes in the July meeting (9-3 to hold) underscored internal pressure for tightening amid supply shocks, including energy prices, and resilient growth. Fed funds futures have priced in a higher probability of hikes by December, reflecting trader consensus that the central bank may need to act to anchor longer-term inflation expectations. Upcoming September, October, and December meetings remain key catalysts, with outcomes hinging on incoming inflation, labor, and growth data. The leading Polymarket probabilities around 3.75% and 4.0% capture this balance between cooling demand signals and the need to address above-target price pressures.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Обсяг
$6,760,419
Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).

Пов'язане

icon for Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

68%
icon for Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

75%
icon for Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

72%

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 15 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «3,75%» з 41%, далі «4,0%» з 27%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?» згенерував $6.8 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Jan 12, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?», перегляньте 15 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?» — «3,75%» з 41%. Наступний — «4,0%» з 27%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.