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Політика·Тарифи Fed

Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?

icon for Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?
Політика·Тарифи Fed

Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?

3,75% 62.3%

4,0% 15.4%

3,25% 8%

3,5% 7%

Polymarket

$6,523,386 Обс.

3,75% 62.3%

4,0% 15.4%

3,25% 8%

3,5% 7%

Polymarket

$6,523,386 Обс.

≤1,0%

$216,014 Обс.

<1%

1,25

$134,363 Обс.

1%

1,5%

$134,117 Обс.

<1%

1,75%

$134,015 Обс.

1%

2,0%

$246,025 Обс.

<1%

2,25%

$70,849 Обс.

<1%

2,5%

$158,852 Обс.

1%

2,75%

$46,024 Обс.

1%

3,0%

$454,736 Обс.

4%

3,25%

$51,537 Обс.

8%

3,5%

$190,202 Обс.

7%

3,75%

$518,443 Обс.

62%

4,0%

$1,358,628 Обс.

15%

4,25%

$413,541 Обс.

4%

≥ 4,5%

$2,396,040 Обс.

1%

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI data, which rose 3.8% year-over-year and marked the fastest pace since May 2023, has reinforced trader consensus around the federal funds rate remaining at the current 3.50%-3.75% target range through year-end 2026. Persistent inflation pressures, elevated energy costs, and Middle East geopolitical risks have prompted major brokerages such as BofA to forecast no cuts this year, while futures markets now price roughly 70% odds of steady policy. This shift has elevated the 3.75% outcome to a 62.4% implied probability on Polymarket, outpacing lower-rate alternatives. Key near-term catalysts include the upcoming May CPI release and the next FOMC meeting, which could further anchor expectations if labor-market and inflation readings remain resilient.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Обсяг
$6,523,386
Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI data, which rose 3.8% year-over-year and marked the fastest pace since May 2023, has reinforced trader consensus around the federal funds rate remaining at the current 3.50%-3.75% target range through year-end 2026. Persistent inflation pressures, elevated energy costs, and Middle East geopolitical risks have prompted major brokerages such as BofA to forecast no cuts this year, while futures markets now price roughly 70% odds of steady policy. This shift has elevated the 3.75% outcome to a 62.4% implied probability on Polymarket, outpacing lower-rate alternatives. Key near-term catalysts include the upcoming May CPI release and the next FOMC meeting, which could further anchor expectations if labor-market and inflation readings remain resilient.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Обсяг
$6,523,386
Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 15 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «3,75%» з 62%, далі «4,0%» з 15%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?» згенерував $6.5 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Jan 12, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?», перегляньте 15 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?» — «3,75%» з 62%. Наступний — «4,0%» з 15%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.