The Justice Department’s April 24 decision to close its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over the agency’s headquarters renovation and related congressional testimony has driven near-unanimous trader consensus that no federal charges will be filed by June 30. The probe, opened in January 2026, produced no indictments before being transferred to the Fed’s inspector general, consistent with institutional norms that shield central-bank leadership from partisan legal pressure. With roughly six weeks remaining, fresh charges would require new evidence and rapid prosecutorial action that lacks precedent in this matter. Traders therefore price the outcome as highly improbable absent an unforeseen development such as a sudden grand-jury referral or executive directive.