The April 2026 dismissal of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell—centered on headquarters renovation costs and congressional testimony—anchors the low market-implied probability of federal charges by year-end. A federal judge quashed related grand jury subpoenas for lack of evidence beyond policy disagreements, with no subsequent filings, inspector general referrals, or prosecutorial activity reported through mid-August. Powell’s transition from chair in May to a governor role through 2028 has further reduced exposure. While polarized political dynamics could theoretically prompt renewed scrutiny, the judicial record and probe closure create substantial barriers, reflected in trader consensus pricing near-certain resolution to no charges.