**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts from the primary Khamenei account during the August 18–25 window, with <5 priced at 61.5% and 5–9 at 28%.** This reflects the account’s established pattern of infrequent activity—typically religious statements, historical quotes, or occasional official messages spaced several days apart—even amid Iran’s post-conflict military reorganization under current Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Recent appointments announced around August 10 triggered a short cluster of posts, but no comparable scheduled events or escalations align with the resolution period. Higher bins above 10 remain low-probability because sustained daily or multiple daily output would require unusual diplomatic, religious, or crisis-driven activity not currently signaled. The implied probabilities capture the account’s baseline cadence rather than any anticipated surge.