**Traders price a low single-digit or sub-five total because the official Khamenei account (now under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following Ali Khamenei’s death in early 2026) has historically issued formal statements and speeches at a measured pace rather than daily commentary.** Recent months show activity concentrated around major diplomatic, military, or domestic developments, with quieter periods producing few or zero original posts. No high-profile summits, escalation triggers, or scheduled addresses are currently fixed for the August 14–21 window, supporting the 57.5% consensus on fewer than five posts. Higher bins remain thinly priced as they would require an unexpected crisis or sustained messaging campaign that has not materialized in comparable recent intervals.