Traders assign the highest probability to fewer than five posts from the @khamenei_ir account during the August 7–14 window because the profile now functions primarily as an archive following Ali Khamenei’s death in early 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes. Activity has shifted toward successor Mojtaba Khamenei, whose statements appear on separate channels or at irregular intervals. Historical patterns show the main account averaging well under one post per day even before the leadership transition, with no major scheduled addresses or diplomatic announcements currently aligned to the resolution period. Ongoing regional tensions and internal regime coordination have not produced the volume of official releases that would push totals into higher brackets, leaving lower ranges as the clear market consensus.