The 2028 Democratic presidential nomination market remains tightly contested because no candidate has consolidated support in an unusually fragmented field more than two years out. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Gavin Newsom, and Jon Ossoff sit within a few points of one another as traders price in their respective strengths—progressive mobilization and national visibility for Ocasio-Cortez, executive experience and fundraising for Newsom, and Senate profile plus Georgia reelection momentum for Ossoff. Recent midterm campaigning by multiple contenders, including Ocasio-Cortez interviews and Newsom’s statements conditioning any run on Kamala Harris’s decision, underscores the early positioning phase. National primary polls show similar dispersion with Harris leading but at lower levels than in 2024, while the absence of formal declarations leaves room for shifts after November results or candidate announcements.