Marine Le Pen maintains her position as the market favorite for the 2027 French presidential election due to consistent first-round polling leads of 30-36% for the Rassemblement National, driven by voter priorities on immigration, economic pressures, and dissatisfaction with the outgoing Macron administration. Recent September 2026 surveys from Harris Interactive, Cluster17, and Ipsos show her advancing comfortably to a runoff, often against Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise, who polls 15-19% and appeals strongly to younger voters. Édouard Philippe trails as the leading centrist or moderate-right option at 13-19% in tested scenarios, reflecting the hollowed-out center and challenges in unifying behind one candidate from Horizons or Renaissance. These dynamics, alongside RN institutional gains and resolved legal hurdles for Le Pen, underpin trader consensus on her elevated implied probability relative to fragmented alternatives.