Ulf Kristersson holds the leading position in the market at 68% amid the protracted government formation process after Sweden’s September 2026 election. The opposition bloc secured a narrow 176–173 seat majority, yet Magdalena Andersson’s attempts to assemble a viable coalition, including a rejected Centre Party-led proposal, have stalled over policy and partner disagreements. Kristersson, as caretaker prime minister, received an extended mandate in early November after the Sweden Democrats dropped cabinet demands, potentially easing talks with the Centre Party. These negotiation dynamics and the right-wing bloc’s structural advantages in cross-bloc support explain trader consensus favoring Kristersson over Andersson at 31%, with other candidates remaining marginal.