Democratic polling leads on the generic congressional ballot, currently averaging more than eight points, have driven trader consensus toward a Democratic House majority in the 2026 midterms. Recent forecast updates from nonpartisan outlets shifted multiple competitive districts toward Democrats, reflecting standard midterm dynamics that typically disadvantage the president's party through lower turnout among its base and higher opposition mobilization. Battleground ratings now show Democrats positioned to gain seats in key suburban and swing districts. Shifts could still occur from late economic data releases, major campaign events, or unexpected turnout patterns in the final weeks before November voting.