Recent polling averages show Democratic challenger Mary Peltola holding a narrow lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s ranked-choice voting contest, with Peltola typically at 47-48% and Sullivan at 44-47% across surveys from Data for Progress, InsiderAdvantage, and Alaska Survey Research. This positioning reflects Peltola’s strong performance in the August primary and her appeal among key voting blocs in a state that uses instant-runoff tabulation. The November 3 election remains closely contested, with minor candidates including Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. and Gerald Heikes splitting a small share of the vote. Trader consensus reflected in current market pricing incorporates these trends alongside historical base rates for incumbents in Alaska Senate races. Legal challenges regarding ballot certification and potential recounts represent the main near-term variables that could influence final outcomes.