Elon Musk’s measured posting pace over August 10–12 has anchored trader sentiment around the <40 bracket at 87% implied probability, reflecting a stretch of routine engagement centered on Grok Build features, SpaceX updates, and brief replies rather than high-volume bursts. Recent days show consistent but contained output—roughly a dozen main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts daily—without the acute company announcements, viral memes, or political developments that typically accelerate his activity. Historical patterns during quieter mid-August windows support this consensus, as Musk’s baseline averages 15–25 qualifying posts when focused on ongoing projects at xAI and Tesla. With the three-day window closing imminently and no late catalysts apparent, higher brackets remain sidelined below 1% combined.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено<40 87%
40-64 13%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$362,031 Обс.
$362,031 Обс.
Aug 12, 2026
<40
87%
40-64
13%
65-89
<1%
90-114
<1%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
<40 87%
40-64 13%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$362,031 Обс.
$362,031 Обс.
Aug 12, 2026
<40
$97,689 Обс.
87%
40-64
$72,713 Обс.
13%
65-89
$106,558 Обс.
<1%
90-114
$52,578 Обс.
<1%
115-139
$15,070 Обс.
<1%
140-164
$7,172 Обс.
<1%
165-189
$5,138 Обс.
<1%
190-214
$3,388 Обс.
<1%
215-239
$887 Обс.
<1%
240+
$838 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 10 12:00 PM ET to August 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s measured posting pace over August 10–12 has anchored trader sentiment around the <40 bracket at 87% implied probability, reflecting a stretch of routine engagement centered on Grok Build features, SpaceX updates, and brief replies rather than high-volume bursts. Recent days show consistent but contained output—roughly a dozen main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts daily—without the acute company announcements, viral memes, or political developments that typically accelerate his activity. Historical patterns during quieter mid-August windows support this consensus, as Musk’s baseline averages 15–25 qualifying posts when focused on ongoing projects at xAI and Tesla. With the three-day window closing imminently and no late catalysts apparent, higher brackets remain sidelined below 1% combined.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 10 12:00 PM ET to August 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Обсяг
$362,031Дата завершення
Aug 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 10 12:00 PM ET to August 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s measured posting pace over August 10–12 has anchored trader sentiment around the <40 bracket at 87% implied probability, reflecting a stretch of routine engagement centered on Grok Build features, SpaceX updates, and brief replies rather than high-volume bursts. Recent days show consistent but contained output—roughly a dozen main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts daily—without the acute company announcements, viral memes, or political developments that typically accelerate his activity. Historical patterns during quieter mid-August windows support this consensus, as Musk’s baseline averages 15–25 qualifying posts when focused on ongoing projects at xAI and Tesla. With the three-day window closing imminently and no late catalysts apparent, higher brackets remain sidelined below 1% combined.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 10 12:00 PM ET to August 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Обсяг
$362,031Дата завершення
Aug 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s measured posting pace over August 10–12 has anchored trader sentiment around the <40 bracket at 87% implied probability, reflecting a stretch of routine engagement centered on Grok Build features, SpaceX updates, and brief replies rather than high-volume bursts. Recent days show consistent but contained output—roughly a dozen main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts daily—without the acute company announcements, viral memes, or political developments that typically accelerate his activity. Historical patterns during quieter mid-August windows support this consensus, as Musk’s baseline averages 15–25 qualifying posts when focused on ongoing projects at xAI and Tesla. With the three-day window closing imminently and no late catalysts apparent, higher brackets remain sidelined below 1% combined.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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