The market’s elevated 52.5% probability on no actor being selected by end of 2027 reflects Marvel and Sony’s confirmed timeline: Kevin Feige has stated that live-action Miles Morales enters the MCU only after Sony’s animated Spider-Verse trilogy concludes with Beyond the Spider-Verse on June 18, 2027, lifting the prior rights restriction. This leaves limited runway for formal casting, screen tests, or announcements before year-end 2027. Trader sentiment favors frontrunners Dallas Dupree Young and Alex R. Hibbert for their age, athletic profiles, and fan visibility, while Caleb McLaughlin and Miles Brown draw support from established TV profiles, yet the field remains fragmented by the need for precise Afro-Latino cultural resonance and the absence of guild or studio shortlists. Tom Holland’s public interest in mentoring a successor adds narrative momentum, but resolution hinges on post-2027 development updates rather than immediate movement.