**The Social Reckoning** enters theaters October 9 facing modest expectations, with trader consensus heavily favoring a $7–9 million opening weekend. Industry tracking from mid-to-late September consistently projects a $6–10 million debut for the Aaron Sorkin-directed companion piece to *The Social Network*, reflecting its serious legal-thriller tone, R rating for language, and focus on the Frances Haugen whistleblower story and Facebook Files. Limited broad appeal is reinforced by comparisons to Sorkin’s prior directorial efforts like *Molly’s Game* ($2.3 million) and recent modest openings for co-stars Jeremy Allen White and Mikey Madison. Competition from horror title *Other Mommy* and audience fatigue around Jan. 6-related themes further cap upside, while the ensemble cast and Sorkin pedigree provide a floor above sub-$5 million scenarios. No major late buzz or reviews have shifted the outlook ahead of release.