Graham Platner, the former Democratic nominee for Maine's U.S. Senate seat, withdrew from the race in July 2026 after multiple ex-girlfriends publicly alleged sexual misconduct from years earlier, including claims that could qualify as gross sexual assault under state law. No formal criminal complaints have reached law enforcement or the Hancock County District Attorney's office, which has stated it would not typically investigate without a victim's direct filing, and authorities have confirmed no active probe exists. With only days remaining until the August 31 resolution date and no reported developments in the intervening weeks, traders assign a 96.8% implied probability to "No" based on the absence of charging momentum. A last-minute victim complaint or unexpected investigative breakthrough could still shift the outcome before the deadline.