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Економ·Бізнес

Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?

icon for Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?
Економ·Бізнес

Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?

0 (0 б.п.) 85.1%

1 (25 б.п.) 10%

2 (50 бп) 4.3%

3 (75 б.п.) <1%

Polymarket

$48,454,353 Обс.

0 (0 б.п.) 85.1%

1 (25 б.п.) 10%

2 (50 бп) 4.3%

3 (75 б.п.) <1%

Polymarket

$48,454,353 Обс.

0 (0 б.п.)

$7,249,934 Обс.

85%

1 (25 б.п.)

$2,529,065 Обс.

10%

2 (50 бп)

$2,681,575 Обс.

4%

3 (75 б.п.)

$2,545,655 Обс.

1%

4 (100 б.п.)

$2,455,310 Обс.

<1%

5 (125 б.п.)

$2,699,706 Обс.

<1%

6 (150 б.п.)

$3,921,627 Обс.

<1%

7 (175 б.п.)

$3,218,181 Обс.

<1%

8 (200 б.п.)

$3,220,172 Обс.

<1%

9 (225 б.п.)

$4,172,697 Обс.

<1%

10 (250 б.п.)

$4,885,219 Обс.

<1%

11 (275 б. п.)

$5,106,594 Обс.

<1%

12+ (300+ б.п.)

$3,768,618 Обс.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation persisting above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, alongside a resilient labor market and solid economic growth, has anchored trader sentiment toward zero federal funds rate cuts in 2026. The FOMC held the policy rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through its July 2026 meeting, with three participants dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, while the June dot plot lifted the median year-end 2026 projection to 3.75–4.00%. Market-implied odds reflect this shift, pricing a high probability of no easing and even potential tightening amid supply shocks and revised inflation forecasts. Upcoming September and December meetings, along with incoming PCE and employment data, remain key catalysts that could reinforce or alter the current pause.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Обсяг
$48,454,353
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation persisting above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, alongside a resilient labor market and solid economic growth, has anchored trader sentiment toward zero federal funds rate cuts in 2026. The FOMC held the policy rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through its July 2026 meeting, with three participants dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, while the June dot plot lifted the median year-end 2026 projection to 3.75–4.00%. Market-implied odds reflect this shift, pricing a high probability of no easing and even potential tightening amid supply shocks and revised inflation forecasts. Upcoming September and December meetings, along with incoming PCE and employment data, remain key catalysts that could reinforce or alter the current pause.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Обсяг
$48,454,353
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Пов'язане

icon for Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?

Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?

52%
icon for Зниження ставки ФРС до засідання у грудні 2026 року?

Зниження ставки ФРС до засідання у грудні 2026 року?

16%
Так
icon for Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

68%

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 13 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «0 (0 б.п.)» з 85%, далі «1 (25 б.п.)» з 10%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?» згенерував $48.5 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Sep 29, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?», перегляньте 13 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?» — «0 (0 б.п.)» з 85%. Наступний — «1 (25 б.п.)» з 10%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.