Polymarket traders price a 67% implied probability of zero Fed rate cuts in 2026—equating to no change in the federal funds rate—reflecting resilient economic data and FOMC hawkishness amid persistent inflation risks. The March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections showed a divided dot plot, with seven participants forecasting no cuts and seven anticipating one 25 basis point reduction, alongside upgraded GDP growth to 2.4% and unemployment steady at 4.3-4.4%. April's FOMC meeting held rates at 3½-3¾ percent, citing solid job gains and geopolitical oil shocks complicating the inflation outlook, aligning with CME FedWatch's ~71% odds of steady policy through year-end. Upcoming May CPI and June FOMC could shift sentiment if disinflation accelerates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено0 (0 б.п.) 67.0%
1 (25 б.п.) 16%
2 (50 бп) 6%
4 (100 б.п.) 1.8%
$26,633,420 Обс.
$26,633,420 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 б.п.)
67%
1 (25 б.п.)
16%
2 (50 бп)
6%
3 (75 б.п.)
2%
4 (100 б.п.)
2%
5 (125 б.п.)
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
1%
8 (200 б.п.)
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
<1%
10 (250 б.п.)
<1%
11 (275 б. п.)
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
1%
0 (0 б.п.) 67.0%
1 (25 б.п.) 16%
2 (50 бп) 6%
4 (100 б.п.) 1.8%
$26,633,420 Обс.
$26,633,420 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 б.п.)
$4,156,744 Обс.
67%
1 (25 б.п.)
$1,242,604 Обс.
16%
2 (50 бп)
$1,188,671 Обс.
6%
3 (75 б.п.)
$1,092,442 Обс.
2%
4 (100 б.п.)
$1,189,802 Обс.
2%
5 (125 б.п.)
$1,401,082 Обс.
1%
6 (150 б.п.)
$2,452,301 Обс.
1%
7 (175 б.п.)
$1,315,139 Обс.
1%
8 (200 б.п.)
$1,705,806 Обс.
<1%
9 (225 б.п.)
$2,431,206 Обс.
<1%
10 (250 б.п.)
$3,078,959 Обс.
<1%
11 (275 б. п.)
$3,241,206 Обс.
<1%
12+ (300+ б.п.)
$2,137,703 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 67% implied probability of zero Fed rate cuts in 2026—equating to no change in the federal funds rate—reflecting resilient economic data and FOMC hawkishness amid persistent inflation risks. The March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections showed a divided dot plot, with seven participants forecasting no cuts and seven anticipating one 25 basis point reduction, alongside upgraded GDP growth to 2.4% and unemployment steady at 4.3-4.4%. April's FOMC meeting held rates at 3½-3¾ percent, citing solid job gains and geopolitical oil shocks complicating the inflation outlook, aligning with CME FedWatch's ~71% odds of steady policy through year-end. Upcoming May CPI and June FOMC could shift sentiment if disinflation accelerates.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Обсяг
$26,633,420Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 67% implied probability of zero Fed rate cuts in 2026—equating to no change in the federal funds rate—reflecting resilient economic data and FOMC hawkishness amid persistent inflation risks. The March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections showed a divided dot plot, with seven participants forecasting no cuts and seven anticipating one 25 basis point reduction, alongside upgraded GDP growth to 2.4% and unemployment steady at 4.3-4.4%. April's FOMC meeting held rates at 3½-3¾ percent, citing solid job gains and geopolitical oil shocks complicating the inflation outlook, aligning with CME FedWatch's ~71% odds of steady policy through year-end. Upcoming May CPI and June FOMC could shift sentiment if disinflation accelerates.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Обсяг
$26,633,420Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 67% implied probability of zero Fed rate cuts in 2026—equating to no change in the federal funds rate—reflecting resilient economic data and FOMC hawkishness amid persistent inflation risks. The March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections showed a divided dot plot, with seven participants forecasting no cuts and seven anticipating one 25 basis point reduction, alongside upgraded GDP growth to 2.4% and unemployment steady at 4.3-4.4%. April's FOMC meeting held rates at 3½-3¾ percent, citing solid job gains and geopolitical oil shocks complicating the inflation outlook, aligning with CME FedWatch's ~71% odds of steady policy through year-end. Upcoming May CPI and June FOMC could shift sentiment if disinflation accelerates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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