Recent Fed communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with resilient labor market data and sticky inflation above the 2% target, have driven 10-year Treasury yields to the 4.63–4.70% range as of mid-August 2026, reversing earlier expectations for deeper rate cuts. Persistent core PCE readings near or above 3%, elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, and market pricing of possible policy rate hikes this year have lifted term premiums and reduced the likelihood of substantial yield declines. Key upcoming catalysts include FOMC meetings, August CPI and employment reports, and Treasury supply dynamics that could further anchor longer-term rates. Any shift toward clearer economic softening or dovish policy signals would be required to push yields meaningfully lower before year-end 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$225,212 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
3.9%
12%
3.8%
5%
3.7%
2%
3.6%
5%
3.5%
4%
3.0%
2%
2.0%
2%
1.0%
2%
$225,212 Обс.
3.9%
$44,197 Обс.
12%
3.8%
$41,312 Обс.
5%
3.7%
$27,383 Обс.
2%
3.6%
$5,587 Обс.
5%
3.5%
$32,973 Обс.
4%
3.0%
$917 Обс.
2%
2.0%
$514 Обс.
2%
1.0%
$40,570 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent Fed communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with resilient labor market data and sticky inflation above the 2% target, have driven 10-year Treasury yields to the 4.63–4.70% range as of mid-August 2026, reversing earlier expectations for deeper rate cuts. Persistent core PCE readings near or above 3%, elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, and market pricing of possible policy rate hikes this year have lifted term premiums and reduced the likelihood of substantial yield declines. Key upcoming catalysts include FOMC meetings, August CPI and employment reports, and Treasury supply dynamics that could further anchor longer-term rates. Any shift toward clearer economic softening or dovish policy signals would be required to push yields meaningfully lower before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Ринок відкрито: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Обсяг
$225,212Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent Fed communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with resilient labor market data and sticky inflation above the 2% target, have driven 10-year Treasury yields to the 4.63–4.70% range as of mid-August 2026, reversing earlier expectations for deeper rate cuts. Persistent core PCE readings near or above 3%, elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, and market pricing of possible policy rate hikes this year have lifted term premiums and reduced the likelihood of substantial yield declines. Key upcoming catalysts include FOMC meetings, August CPI and employment reports, and Treasury supply dynamics that could further anchor longer-term rates. Any shift toward clearer economic softening or dovish policy signals would be required to push yields meaningfully lower before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Обсяг
$225,212Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Fed communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with resilient labor market data and sticky inflation above the 2% target, have driven 10-year Treasury yields to the 4.63–4.70% range as of mid-August 2026, reversing earlier expectations for deeper rate cuts. Persistent core PCE readings near or above 3%, elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, and market pricing of possible policy rate hikes this year have lifted term premiums and reduced the likelihood of substantial yield declines. Key upcoming catalysts include FOMC meetings, August CPI and employment reports, and Treasury supply dynamics that could further anchor longer-term rates. Any shift toward clearer economic softening or dovish policy signals would be required to push yields meaningfully lower before year-end 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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