Traders assign a 97.1% probability that the United States will not default on its debt obligations by the end of 2026, reflecting the statutory debt limit of $41.1 trillion, enacted in 2025, which analysts project will not bind until spring or summer 2027. Extraordinary measures and cash reserves would then provide several additional months of runway before any X-date. Congress has raised or suspended the debt ceiling on dozens of occasions since 1960, and rating agencies maintain stable outlooks on the expectation of timely bipartisan action to avoid market disruption and higher borrowing costs. While persistent deficits and rising debt levels create longer-term fiscal pressure, no scheduled votes, negotiations, or economic shocks within the market window indicate an imminent impasse capable of triggering a missed Treasury payment.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
3% шанс
$18,051 Обс.
$18,051 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
3% шанс
$18,051 Обс.
$18,051 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97.1% probability that the United States will not default on its debt obligations by the end of 2026, reflecting the statutory debt limit of $41.1 trillion, enacted in 2025, which analysts project will not bind until spring or summer 2027. Extraordinary measures and cash reserves would then provide several additional months of runway before any X-date. Congress has raised or suspended the debt ceiling on dozens of occasions since 1960, and rating agencies maintain stable outlooks on the expectation of timely bipartisan action to avoid market disruption and higher borrowing costs. While persistent deficits and rising debt levels create longer-term fiscal pressure, no scheduled votes, negotiations, or economic shocks within the market window indicate an imminent impasse capable of triggering a missed Treasury payment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Обсяг
$18,051Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97.1% probability that the United States will not default on its debt obligations by the end of 2026, reflecting the statutory debt limit of $41.1 trillion, enacted in 2025, which analysts project will not bind until spring or summer 2027. Extraordinary measures and cash reserves would then provide several additional months of runway before any X-date. Congress has raised or suspended the debt ceiling on dozens of occasions since 1960, and rating agencies maintain stable outlooks on the expectation of timely bipartisan action to avoid market disruption and higher borrowing costs. While persistent deficits and rising debt levels create longer-term fiscal pressure, no scheduled votes, negotiations, or economic shocks within the market window indicate an imminent impasse capable of triggering a missed Treasury payment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Обсяг
$18,051Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97.1% probability that the United States will not default on its debt obligations by the end of 2026, reflecting the statutory debt limit of $41.1 trillion, enacted in 2025, which analysts project will not bind until spring or summer 2027. Extraordinary measures and cash reserves would then provide several additional months of runway before any X-date. Congress has raised or suspended the debt ceiling on dozens of occasions since 1960, and rating agencies maintain stable outlooks on the expectation of timely bipartisan action to avoid market disruption and higher borrowing costs. While persistent deficits and rising debt levels create longer-term fiscal pressure, no scheduled votes, negotiations, or economic shocks within the market window indicate an imminent impasse capable of triggering a missed Treasury payment.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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